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Tuesday, 19 March 2019

What we’re tracking on 19 March 2019

We are, to quote corporate Egypt, “cautiously optimistic” that the weeklong news drought is slowly coming to an end. Top execs at listed companies have largely wrapped FY2018 earnings season and still have a few weeks before finance starts peppering them with flash notes on 1Q performance — and we have all suddenly awoken to the notion that we have less than two months before Ramadan in which to get meaningful work done.

Look for the House to launch its hearings on constitutional amendments as early tomorrow. The hearings were to have begun yesterday, but were pushed back to allow MPs time to get back to the capital from Aswan, where they were attending President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s Arab African Youth Summit.

Good news for Qalaa’s ERC? Oil refineries in Europe, the US and Asia are preparing to turn the volume up to 11 ahead of an expected surge in demand before the introduction of new fuel regulations in January 2020. The IMO 2020 rules will place a 0.5% cap on sulfur content in fuel used by the shipping industry in an effort to reduce emissions. The International Energy Agency predicts that the switch to low-sulfur fuel will dramatically raise its price — and refiners are keen to capitalize. Bloomberg has more.

In news relevant to our regional energy hub dream: Delek Drilling could potentially spin off its operations in natural gas fields Leviathan (Israel) and Aphrodite (Cyprus) — and list the shares of the new company on the London Stock Exchange, according to Bloomberg. Delek is looking to combine output from both fields and on-sell it to Alaa Arafa’s Dolphinus Holdings to be liquefied in Egypt as part of the USD 15 bn agreement signed last year. The Israeli energy company had previously tried to go to the LSE in 2014, but failed to draw interest.

The US Federal Reserve kicks off its two-day meeting today at the end of which it’s expected to leave interest rates on hold. The Financial Times has a rundown on views.

You can expect chatter today about infrastructure in the Suez Canal region and on tech exports to Russia. The Suez Canal Authority is talking today about infrastructure and sustainable growth, while ITIDA, the tech industry’s guardian angel, is meeting with a Russian delegation today on boosting tech exports to that market.


It’s a big day for Saudi Arabia, which yesterday saw the Tadawul upgraded join the FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones emerging markets indices in a major step forward for its inclusion in global equity benchmarks, the FT reports. Saudi will join the MSCI Emerging Markets index at the beginning of June. The announcement prompted substantial passive inflows into Saudi equities, lifting the Tadawul to near four-year highs, according to Reuters, which notes that the Tadawul “will have a weighting of 2.9% in the FTSE Emerging All Cap Index … The market is positioned for passive fund inflows of around USD 20 bn” when all is said and done with the various upgrades.

The UK’s Brexit drama took another unexpected turn last night after House Speaker John Bercow ruled out a third parliamentary vote on PM Theresa May’s Brexit agreement, the BBC reports. Apparently the country is now in a “major constitutional crisis,” according to the UK’s solicitor-general. Stay tuned for the Brexit season one finale on 29 March.


Other things to keep an eye on this week:

  • Conferences and gatherings: The Portfolio Egypt conference is taking place today, and Planning Minister Hala El Said is guest speaker at AmCham’s monthly luncheon meeting on Thursday.
  • Dame Minouche Shafik, director of the London School of Economics and Political Science, will give the Nadia Younes Memorial Lecture on “Global Leadership in a Changing World” at AUC’s Tahrir Square campus on Wednesday.
  • Trade show: The Trade Ministry will open a trade show on Wednesday featuring products from six countries including Sudan, Kuwait, Uganda, and Burkina Faso.

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