The window for emerging markets to industrialize is closing — and quickly, at that: Structural shifts in global trade patterns will make it increasingly difficult for emerging markets to industrialize, writes Steve Johnson in the FT. Research from the McKinsey Global Institute suggests that new trends in production (more automation, for example) mean the importance of labor-cost arbitrage is decreasing — bad news for countries hoping for economic growth through a strategy of labor-intensive manufacturing of goods for export. Worse, advances in technology are seeing more and more work “reshored” to advanced economies.

Other indicators that will prove disheartening for emerging markets: The increasingly regional nature of trade (especially in Europe and Asia); the growing importance in the value chain of intangible assets, knowledge, and research and development (which correlate with a highly skilled workforce); and the massive spike in trade of services as opposed to physical goods (the former growing 60% faster than the latter in the past decade.)

There is a glimmer of hope for countries that have managed to find “a profitable niche,” but even that may prove unsustainable. We may expect to hear this narrative more and more often: that emerging markets will need to start really investing in developing the skill sets of their workforces (focusing on higher cognitive skills, soft skills and technological skills) as the “window of opportunity” for economic growth through industrialization keeps narrowing.