What we’re tracking on 17 December 2018
The 2019 Enterprise Reader Survey is out. Among the key takeaways from poll, which we immodestly consider the largest survey of executive sentiment in Egypt:
- More of you think 2018 was a good year to do business in Egypt than not;
- You are generally optimistic about 2019…
- …but you’re less confident about the outlook than you were at this time last year;
- Fewer of you expect to beat your competition in the new year than thought you would come out on top when we asked the same question a year ago;
- You’re being squeezed by inflation and high interest rates;
- You’re also less optimistic about prospects for FDI inflows into your specific sectors;
- And all of that is expressing itself in a sharp pullback on new investment: A year ago, the vast majority of you thought your companies would invest more in the following six months. Today, less than half of you are saying the same thing.
- Fewer of you expect to be hiring in 2019 than thought their headcount would grow when we last surveyed you a year ago;
- You’re hoping to keep wage growth under control in 2019 after two years of sharp pay hikes.
We have the full rundown on the results in this morning’s Speed Round, below. And taken on the whole, the results don’t feel horribly surprising this far into a long economic reform program — one that guarantees we have miles to go before we sleep.
Santa rally? Fuggedaboutit. Stocks in Asia are mixed this morning and US stock futures pointed to a slightly lower opening today after Friday’s sell-off. The EGX30, meanwhile, closed yesterday flat in light trading — about a third below the trailing 90-day average.
All signs point to more volatility as traders opt not to buy the dip, the global business press is warning. Bank of America Merrill Lynch found that traders pulled USD 27.6 bn out of US equities last week — a figure it’s calling the “second-biggest outflow of all time” — and a further USD 39 bn was “yanked from stocks worldwide,” Business Insider reports. At the same time, some USD 81 bn flowed into money-market mutual funds last week (the biggest inflow on record) and a steep USD 46 bn flowed out of equity mutual funds — “almost double the figure on any other week on record,” Felix Salmon writes for Axios.
Don’t take the word of the ink-stained wretches alone — the umbrella group of the world’s central banks agrees. The Bank for International Settlements warned in its quarterly review yesterday “that a normalization of monetary policy is likely to trigger a flurry of sharp sell-offs over the coming months,” CNBC writes. The BIS worries that rising US interest rates, America’s trade war with China and concerns about a possible global economic slowdown all mean we could be in for a bumpy 2019. You can read the full BIS report here (pdf) or start with the landing page, which includes links to remarks from BIS officials, stats and special features.
How worried should you be about 2019? Well, you loved Bloomberg’s Pessimist’s Guide to the year, which we noted yesterday. Go now and read the business information service’s The bulls versus bears guide to the world economy in 2019 for a “whistle-stop look at some of what could go wrong or right” in the trade war, oil, central banks, the US economy, a potential Euro crisis, Brexit and more.
Opportunity in the GCC? Nine state-owned energy companies in the Gulf have delayed IPO plans, but lower oil prices could rekindle the idea if stake sales in 2019, the Wall Street Journal suggests — if markets cooperate, that is.
Beltone hearing today: The Financial Regulatory Authority is scheduled to hear today an appeal by Beltone Financial of the six-month suspension handed its investment banking division over alleged irregularities in its handling of this fall’s Sarwa Capital IPO.
FOR YOUR MORNING COMMUTE: Choose between an exhaustive look at how global consultancy McKinsey “has helped raise the stature of authoritarian governments” and “When your new CEO is also your husband.” The latter explores the latest development in the Tory Burch business empire, of which we’re a fan in these parts.
Meanwhile, President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s four-day visit to Vienna continues today. The president is in the Austrian capital for the high-level Africa-Europe Forum. The gathering comes as Egypt prepares to take over the African Union presidency in 2019. El Sisi will chair the group’s 31 January summit in Addis Ababa.
Other headlines worth a gander this morning include:
- US credit markets are drying up as volatility rattles investors, the Financial Times warns amid the suggestion that December could end without a single US company floating a junk bond.
- Qatar is putting on a push, buying three offshore oil blocks in Mexico from Eni, promising to invest at least USD 20 bn in the coming few years in the United States, and saying it won’t talk about ending its feud with its GCC neighbors until the embargo against it is lifted.
- Another Brexit referendum is among the options now being discussed to end the deadlock over how to move the debate forward, Bloomberg reports, but Prime Minister Theresa May thinks going to the polls again could shake citizens’ faith in the political system, Reuters adds.