EM bulls are starting to outnumber the bears –Bloomberg survey

** #7 Is the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse losing steam? EM bulls are starting to outnumber the bears, according to a Bloomberg survey of 26 investors, traders and strategists. Good news: More half of respondents said that the sell-off in EM stocks, FX and bonds has bottomed out. Less good: EMEA opportunities are at the bottom of managers’ regional picks, which were led by Latin America (FX and bonds) and Asia (stocks). What’s going to drive global EM momentum for the rest of this quarter? The Fed’s interest rate path, China and trade tensions, with the EM Zombie Apocalypse ranking a distant seventh (see chart, above). Hit the link for the full breakdown of the survey results and list of participating institutions.
The Wall Street Journal has an interesting counterpoint on prevailing EM orthodoxy, arguing that while emerging markets are “raising interest rates and keeping a lid on spending” to counter falling currencies and fleeing investors, doing so “is likely to hurt their long-term prospects.” Read: The bad trade-offs emerging markets face.
But don’t worry, the end is still nigh if you listen to the pundits. In recent days:
- Bond investors have suggested that Italy could be the “epicenter of the next financial crisis”;
- The world’s biggest hedge fund thinks the US Fed is going to mess it up for everyone, suggesting “the US economy faces a looming deceleration as tighter monetary policy starts to weigh on activity and ratchets up pressure on financial markets.”
- IMF boss Christine Lagarde worries that “simmering trade tensions are already denting global growth and need to be resolved”;
- JP Morgan Chase Jamie Dimon has told us all how worried he is about “geopolitical issues bursting all over the place”;
- The FT’s house view is that the long bull market has now entered its twilight.
Saudi stocks fell as much as 7% yesterday as fallout from the disappearance of Jamal Khashoggi rattled traders. “Investors worried about deteriorating relations with the international community after the disappearance of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi,” Reuters said, noting that the Tadawul trimmed some of its losses to close the day off 3.5%. Reuters’ piece presaged front-page headlines the world over today emphasizing the growing rift between KSA and the United States over the suspected murder of Khashoggi last week in Saudi’s consulate in Istanbul (FT | NYT | WSJ | Reuters). Oil futures closed up 2% yesterday on fears of how the rift could play out.
JPM boss pulls out of MbS’ tea party: JP Morgan Chase boss Jamie Dimon joined Uber’s Dara Khosrowshahi in becoming the second major tech or finance figure to pull out of “Davos in the Desert,” Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman’s high-profile investment conference. International media figures had already turned their backs on the gathering. The FT has the story.
Egypt’s Foreign Ministry urged transparency in the investigation into Khashoggi’s death and offered cautious support of Saudi as it did so. The issue got some airtime with Amr Adib on El Hekaya last night (watch, runtime: 21:08).
In miscellany this morning:
The FT’s annual global executive MBA ranking is out. Topping the list:
- Kellogg / HKUST, first for the ninth time in 12 years
- Trium (HEC Paris / LSE / NYU)
- Tsinghua University / Insead
Check out the overview of the package, including the fastest risers (U of T’s Rotman and EMLyon) or simply jump to the ranking itself.
Pot becomes legal in Canada this week, but food and beverage companies may not want to tie their wagons to it.
Blood pressure high during or after your morning commute? You need a laugh. One of the smartest people we know endorses SNL’s Olive Garden sketch — a beautiful mesh of the American absurd with a dash of class and race politics, starring the always amazing Kenan Thompson and Scarlett Johansson (watch, runtime: 6:45)
PSA- Flood season is about to begin in the mountains of Sinai. South Sinai Tourism Police are warning tourism companies to exercise caution as they book hiking trips in the weeks to come.