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Thursday, 27 September 2018

US Fed raises interest rates, sees three years of growth ahead for the US economy

Our central bank meets one day after the US Federal Reserve raised interest rates. The Fed raised its benchmark overnight lending rate a quarter of a point to a range of 2.00-2.25%, Reuters reports. It was the third time this year that the US has raised rates and came as the Fed “signalled it will forge ahead with plans to tighten policy, even as central bankers face White House pressure for low borrowing costs as well as concerns over a trade war,” the Financial Times notes. It is the first time that the Fed’s benchmark rates have been above 2% since the financial crisis in 2008, the Wall Street Journal notes.

The Fed sees another three years of growth ahead for the US economy, with Powell nearly effusive at a presser after the decision as he said, “Our economy is strong, growth is running at a healthy clip, unemployment is low, the number of people working is rising steadily, and wages are up,” he said. “Inflation is low and stable. All of these are very good signs.”

Further rate hikes could be in the cards, as Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell told reporters after the meeting that, “These rates remain low” and characterized the rate hike as a “gradual return to normal.” One pundit told CNBC to brace for hike rates once a quarter next year if the current macro backdrop remains in place,.

Why do we in Egypt — or other emerging markets — care so much about US rates? The higher US rates and the rosier to outlook for the US economy, the more “tourist” investors are going to flock to Amreeka. The tightening of the spread between the upside in the US and that in EM will see more risk-averse investors opt for American opportunities, sucking capital out of emerging economies, the conventional wisdom holds. Oh, and then there’s that whole, “We as a country are borrowing bns in USD” thing, as we note above and below.

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