HSBC “fundamentally optimistic” on Egypt

We’re deep in the arms of the Ramadan news lull with less than a week of the Holy Month now past. Stil, what news we have is meaty, and we have plenty of other reading to keep your pre- and post-fast hours filled.

The investment and oil ministries are reportedly signing agreements with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development today, according to Al-Ahram. No details on the agreement were disclosed.

Goodbye, El Sherka El Almaneya: Longtime readers know we have reservations about the proposed Cyber Crimes Act, but there’s one provision we’re very much down with: An article that would stop the flood of unsolicited spam SMSes. On the table is a proposition that would penalize mobile network operators for leaking or selling their customers’ personal data to telemarketing companies or any other entity that will use the data to promote any goods and services, Youm7 reports. Article 25 of the law would impose a prison sentence of at least six months and a fine ranging between EGP 50k and 100k for violators. The House of Representatives had approved the text of the draft law earlier this month, but postponed its final vote due to a lack of quorum.

Goldman Sachs Asset Management sees the outlook for risk asset returns improving this year in its 2018 Mid-Year Outlook report. This comes off the back of the global slowdown which began in 2017, which Goldman sees as having lowered the bar for positive news on growth going forward. It sees interest rates, a sell-off in equities, and emerging market assets creating more room for potential upside for risk asset returns. The report notes that market volatility has re-emerged and while Goldman expects further drawdowns, it does “not anticipate a shift to a persistently high-volatility regime.” The firm expects three additional interest rate hikes by the US Federal reserve this year.

Despite the sell-off, Goldman is still bullish on EMs: “We are bearish US rates, while bullish on EM currencies with strong underlying macro stories,” says the report (we see Egypt fitting comfortably here). The firm also sees value in emerging market debt after recent underperformance in the sector. In equities, Goldman lumps emerging markets with US small caps as “bright spots.” You can read the full report here (pdf), or access it through the landing page.

In other news from the Emerging Markets Zombie Apocalypse: Turkey’s lira tanked yesterday. The currency is now down 17% for the year as traders turn bearish on EMs with “current account deficits and / or high dollar-denominated debt and / or political uncertainty and / or a dependency on oil,” the Financial Times reports. Meanwhile, foreign investors are walking away from South African bonds, having now become net sellers.

All of this has prompted UBS to very helpfully state the obvious: “EMs will have to refind [sic] a competitive edge.” Writing for the FT, which of late has come across as the (1950s-style) Pravda for the EM Zombie Apocalypse, UBS’ deputy head of macro strategy declares, “Historical truisms about EM’s high growth beta and demographic dividend are coming into question. The answers don’t lie in their monetary or fiscal policy, which, broadly speaking, remain orthodox. They are to be found in education, innovation and productivity.” Thanks.

Don’t feel picked on, though: Goldman Sachs sees the US economy going to hell in a handbasket, too. Goldman’s chief economist has written that fiscal outlook for the United States is “not good … and could pose a threat to the country’s economic security during the next recession,” CNBC reports. Investors, meanwhile, are as afraid of the tanking of corporate bonds as they are of the EM sell-off. A Bloomberg Barclays index of US investment-grade credit is down 3.9% so far this year, while a JPMorgan Chase index sees these shortfalls as the third-worst 100-day returns on US corporate bonds since 2000. USD bonds of emerging markets have declined at a comparable rate, says Bloomberg.

Your Ramadan rundown for today:

Bank hours run 09:30 am to 01:30 pm for customers and from 09:00 am to 02:00 pm for employees, CBE announced.

The EGX is running shorter trading hours. The trading session kicks off at 10:00 am, but closes at 1:30 pm. Tap or click here for the full schedule.

It’s going to be hot all week: The heatwave continues through Thursday, with forecasts for a daytime high of 43°C today and tomorrow. Respite comes on Saturday, when you can expect a string of days at 33°C running through Wednesday of next week.

So, when do we eat? For those of us, Maghrib is at 6:46 pm CLT today. You’ll have until 3:16 am tomorrow to finish your sohour.

Today’s recommended Ramadan reading:

One of the best ways to prevent childhood leukaemia may be to your kid eat dirt. And roll around on the (unswept) floor. And hug that unwashed dog or other kid with the sniffles. Research out yesterday by one of the UK’s top oncologists concludes that many cases of leukaemia could be prevented by priming the immune system, extending the so-called “hygiene hypothesis” to the dreaded form of cancer, the Financial Times reports. “The hypothesis is the idea that autoimmune disorders and allergies are becoming more common in modern western societies because young children are no longer exposed to the pathogens required to build up their immune systems.”

Russian industrial zone contracts to be signed tomorrow? Egypt and Russia look set to sign contracts for a 5.23 mn sqm Russian Industrial Zone on Wednesday, 23 May, during the 11th session of the Egyptian-Russian Economic Committee, according to a Russian trade ministry statement. Prep meetings for the session, which will be headed by Trade and Industry Ministers Tarek Kabil and Denis Manturov, kicked off yesterday, Al Masry Al Youm reports.

Also tomorrow, the Transportation Ministry will break ground on the third phase of Cairo Metro Line 3, Al Ahram reports. Once completed, the 18-km metro line is set to run from Imbaba to Cairo International Airport with 15 stops. A EUR 900 mn loan is covering 60% of the costs of the project.

The IMF should issue its progress report on Egypt’s economic reform program by the end of the week, Deputy Chief of Media Relations Alistair Thomson has said.

The World Cup is nigh: All eyes are on Mo Salah as Egypt announces provisional World Cup team roster: Egyptian national football team coach Hector Cuper has announced the provisional team roster for the 2018 World Cup, which is just weeks away, according to the Washington Post. The lineup is not final but includes several household names, including Ahmed Fathi, Ahmed Hegazi, Ali Gabr, Tarek Hamed, Kahraba, Mohamed Elneny, Mahmoud “Trezeguet” Hassan, and — of course — Mohamed Salah. The Pharaohs are heading to Russia with the hopes of turning around decades of crushing disappointment at the championship, with Mo Salah leading the way, Simon Jennings writes for Reuters. Egypt has never won a match at the World Cup, but “if Salah can capture even a fraction of his best form in Russia the fans could be dancing in the streets of Cairo in a few weeks’ time,” Jennings says in a profile of Salah.

The nation’s talk show hosts are deep in the embrace of a food coma. Or whatever it is they do when they go on their annual Ramadan hiatus.

HSBC remains “fundamentally optimistic on Egypt’s near-term outlook”: We like Simon Williams even when he’s not singing the economy’s praises, so it’s particularly gratifying to see HSBC’s chief economist for Central and Eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa (also known as “the world’s coolest geography”) sounding bullish on our prospects. “The gains delivered by the IMF-anchored reform process that began in late 2016 are impressive and have momentum, and will, in our view, see the domestic and external imbalances that had become so damaging to economic function continue to narrow over the remainder of this year and into 2019,” he said after a recent visit to Cairo, according to an HSBC press release. “We are optimistic that as inflation falls and confidence in the new, more stable economic environment gains, growth will trend upward boosted by an increase in consumption, investment and exports,” he added.

Calls for continued monetary easing: “We expect the recovery process to benefit from the tailwinds of a steady, but extended, monetary easing cycle and strong global risk appetite which should ensure Egypt continues to benefit from capital inflows,” said Williams.

M&A WATCH- TE inks SPA for USD 90 mn acquisition of OTMT’s MENA Cables: Telecom Egypt (TE) subsidiary the Egyptian International Submarine Cables Company (EISCC) has executed a sale and purchase agreement for the USD 90 mn acquisition of Orascom Telecom Media and Technology (OTMT) subsidiary MENA Cables, according to a statement to the EGX (pdf). TE expects the transaction to close in c. 60 days as conditions precedent are satisfied. OTMT said in a separate statement (pdf) it will look to put the proceeds of the sale towards financing its expansion in the finance, real estate, agriculture, entertainment and logistics sectors. TE had announced earlier this month that its board of directors approved financing the acquisition through a shareholder loan to its cable subsidiary. MENA Cable is licensed in Egypt and Italy to operate a submarine telecoms system connecting Europe to the Middle East and Southeast Asia.

Advisors: EISCC was advised our friends at ALC Law Office as well as Al Tamimi & Co. KPMG and First Capital Financial Advisory were financial advisors, while Metel ICT was technical advisor. OTMT did not disclose its advisors.

IPO WATCH- Misr Insurance EGM signs off on potential EGX listing: An extraordinary general meeting of Misr Insurance Holding Company shareholders approved yesterday listing on the EGX as part of the state privatization program, according to a Public Enterprises Ministry statement carried by Youm7. No details were provided on the expected size or timeline of the potential transaction. Misr Insurance is one of 23 state-owned companies included in the official lineup for the state’s privatization program, whose first phase the government hopes will reel in EGP 15-18 bn.

INVESTMENT WATCH- India’s Dhunseri Petrochem has bought the Egyptian Petrochemicals Holding Company (ECHEM)’s share of their joint venture, the Egyptian Indian Polyester Company (EIPET), according to a regulatory filing (pdf) by Dhunseri on the Bombay Stock Exchange. Dhunseri will buy ECHEM’s 23% stake in EIPET in seven installments over the next four years. The company did not disclose the value of the transaction.

STARTUP WATCH- The Giftery has closed an investment round led by Springboard Investment Management (LinkedIn | website), the two parties said in a joint statement (pdf) issued last night. The two did not disclose the size of the investment. Cairo-based Giftery, founded by Sarah Aclimandos, bills itself as the region’s first online gifting platform, providing a “one-stop shop for all gift and registry needs of individuals and corporates.” Springboard’s Gamal Guemeih says the transaction is his firm’s third in Egypt. The Giftery will use the funding for “marketing, new features and improvements in the customer experience.” Our friends at Shahid Law Firm were legal advisors to the Giftery on the transaction.

Random fact: Egypt’s e-commerce market has grown 30% year-over-year for the past three years, the statement claims.

Egypt’s non-oil industrial output climbed to EGP 145.3 bn in 3Q2017, according to a CAPMAS release. The release did not include figures for the y-o-y increase. Food products accounted for 19% of overall output, while steel production accounted for 17.1%.

The Oil Ministry will hold two international bid rounds for oil and gas exploration this year, with one bid covering 16 concession areas, mostly in the Mediterranean Sea, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla said on Monday. The second bid round will cover 11 concession areas in the Nile Valley, Gulf of Suez, and the Eastern Desert. El Molla did not disclose further details. International oil companies, including Shell, Apache Corporation and UAE’s Mubadala are all looking at opportunities in the two bid rounds, according to Al Mal.

LEGISLATION WATCH- President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has signed into law amendments to the Agriculture Act that give the government more power to regulate unsustainable agriculture practices, Youm7 reports. The law grants the Agriculture Ministry, in coordination with the Irrigation Ministry, greater powers to regulate which crops can be grown and where, all with an eye towards water conservation, soil preservation, economic viability and ending unsustainable economic practices.

In other news from the agriculture industry: Egypt is cultivating cotton on some 300k feddans of land according to remarks attributed to Agriculture Minister Abdel Moneim El Banna, per Youm7. That beats the 250k feddan target the Agriculture Ministry had set back in February and is more than double the 131k feddans that were planted with the iconic crop last growing season. El Banna credited the progress with the introduction four years ago of four new strains of cotton that will first be harvested and brought to market in 2019.

LEGISLATION WATCH- House unlikely to discuss rent control law this legislative session: The House of Representatives is unlikely to discuss proposed amendments to the law on rent control during the current legislative session since the House’s legislative agenda is packed with higher priorities, including the FY2018-19 draft state budget, committee deputy chair Mohamed Abdelwahab tells Al Mal. Debate of the bill will likely be postponed until October, when the House returns from its summer recess.

Amendments unlikely to scrap rent control: The legislation could allow landlords to marginally raise rents presently regulated by rent control provisions, but would not liberalize the “old rent” system, according to Abdelwahab.

MPs have drafted a law to cancel prison sentences imposed on indebted women and allowing them to repay their debts through other means, MP Ibrahim Hegazy said, according to state-run Al Ahram. Hegazy was unclear on what these “other means” entail, but previous suggestions had proposed having indebted women pay off their debts by through community service projects.

UAE could eliminate foreign ownership limits, extend duration of residency visas: The UAE is expected to lift foreign ownership limits on local companies, allowing foreign investors 100% ownership by the end of the year, according to the UAE’s news agency WAM. The new policy also grants 10-year visas to foreign workers in the medical, scientific, research and technical fields. Scientists, innovators and “exceptional students” will be granted 10-year visas as well. Those studying in the UAE will see their visas extended to five years. “We expect a significant positive effect on foreign direct investments,” said Jaap Meijer, managing director and head of equity research at investment bank Arqaam Capital tells Bloomberg.

A boon to a sickly property market? “The decision should also help net immigration, which should significantly alleviate the current pressure on housing markets,” Meijer added. Faisal Durrani, global head of research at property broker Cluttons, feels that the move would go a long way to stimulate demand in the country’s ailing real estate market. “The property markets across the U.A.E. have been dogged by challenges ever since oil prices collapsed nearly four years ago, ranging from the threat of oversupply, to the lack of affordable housing,” he tells Bloomberg.

Other international finance / business / econ / political news that should be on your radar this morning:

The largest hedge fund launch ever will take place in early June when a star fixed-income trader launches a USD 8 bn fund that has already hired dozens of readers to run bonds and equities in New York and London. (Financial Times)

The Trump Administration is ratcheting up the hawkish rhetoric on Iran, threatening to deepen economic sanctions unless the country back out of Syria and dismantle its nuclear program, Reuters reports. The US also closed a loophole by which China would allegedly evade anti-dumping duties by exporting through Vietnam, the newswire says.

Italy is one step closer to having a government after the populist Five Star Movement and the far-right League reached a possible consensus on a prime minister. Both supported the nomination of academic and non-politically-affiliated Giuseppe Conte. Needless to say, it’s not looking great for Italy’s sovereign bonds. (Financial Times)

Egyptian Ramadan lantern wants to snag Guinness World Records for tallest in the world: In celebration of the holy month, Egyptian citizen Ahmed Al Hajo installed a 50-meter-tall Ramadan lantern using iron and festive light bulbs in his neighborhood in Alexandria, Al Arabiya reports. Having been fond of street decoration since his childhood, Al Hajo is looking forward to be recognized by Guinness World Records for the tallest Ramadan lantern. The title is currently held by a 13.09-meter-high wood and copper lantern fashioned in the UAE.

Egypt’s military economy has flourished at the expense of the private sector, Jared Malsin writes for the WSJ in a feature-length drive-by that made the homepage of the digital edition of the newspaper. It’s a story that has practically become a meme for the international press in recent years, and the significance of Malsin’s piece, which extensively quotes Naguib Sawiris, is almost entirely in the fact that it has appeared in the Journal. It’s a solid primer for those new to the discussion, but pales in comparison to Reuters’ recent investigative piece based on a year’s worth of reporting on the military’s business activities.

The average Egyptian throws away 73 kg of food every year, making Egypt one of the “biggest wasters of food,” according to a VOA News photo essay that cites an NGO’s claim that some 40% of food in Egypt is wasted. Egypt among the 20 countries with th ehighest number of children suffering from chronic malnutrition or stunting, according to UNICEF data.

Meanwhile:

• Alexandrian Mina Bendary started the “Je Suis” academy in 2015 to battle “Christian discrimination” as an aspiring professional football player after he was repeatedly asked to use a Muslim name to get accepted to various clubs, according to AFP.
• Al Jazeera journalist Abdullah Elshamy says he cannot return to Egypt from Doha as he faces prosecution for his coverage of the 2013 Rabaa protests, according to Global Journalist.

The coolest ratio we’ve seen in a long time: The New York Times’ so-called Marx Ratio claims to provide a (rough) answer to the age-old question of “who benefits the most when a company is successful: It’s shareholders or its employees?” A little-noticed provision in the 2010 Dodd-Frank act requires publicly traded firms in the US to disclose median employee compensation. The Times’ business desk says its Marx Ratio, named for Karl (not this Karl) “captures the relationship between a company’s profits — the return to capital, on a per-employee basis — and how much its median employee is compensated, a rough proxy for the return to labor. … Companies with high Marx Ratios offer particularly strong rewards to their shareholders relative to workers.”

Not surprisingly, companies in labor-intensive industries tend to favor workers more: Amongst them are “huge retailers Walmart and Amazon, hotel companies like Marriott and Hilton, and both Coca-Cola and PepsiCo.” Others with high Marx Ratios include tobacco giants, consumer products companies and fast-food outlets.

Yeah, yeah, but what about in finance? Does it really surprise you to learn that investment bankers claim more of the economic pie in the US than do commercial bankers? “The profitability of those commercial banks is driven by things the company controls: their network of branches, their information technology systems, their brand reputation. Their employees … have little leverage with which to demand high pay. … By contrast, the investment banks employ a lot more highly compensated, highly sought-after professionals, who in turn can demand premium salaries.”

Is banking an inherently immoral profession? History suggests otherwise: The reputation of bankers has never been great through the ages (see Ebenezer Scrooge, Shakespeare’s Shylock). A reputation for unquenchable avarice reached its fever pitch following the global financial crisis. But it wasn’t always so: In Industrial Age Britain, scions of banking families at some of the most well-recognized names in the sector (Barclays, Lloyds, and Gurney) built a reputation as gracious givers and founders of modern philanthropy. Prior to the turn of the 20th century, the role of government did not encompass social welfare.

The slack was picked up by fat cat bankers, according to this riveting BBC documentary (watch, runtime: 59:09).

A peculiar mix of religious intolerance, cultural norms, and the industrial revolution helped drive the giving spirit of bankers. Some of the most well-established names in banking were Quakers, a derided religious sect of pacifists and moralists, who because of being shut out of professions had to turn to trading and finance. That was coupled with the “very Christian” belief that it was easier for a camel to enter the eye of a needle than a rich man to enter heaven. Whatever wealth was attained must, by moral obligation, be distributed. The industrial revolution, which led to a yawning gap in income inequality and widespread poverty, made charity an imperative. The documentary concludes that in our current “get rich” culture, we all bear responsibility for the perceived immorality of bankers and we ultimately get the bankers we deserve.

Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry was in Algiers yesterday to take part in a tripartite ministerial meeting on Libya, according to a ministry statement. The meeting, which includes Egypt, Tunisia, and Algeria, reaffirmed previous resolutions on Libya including rejecting foreign intervention.

Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was hospitalized in the West Bank on Sunday for the third time in less than a week. Doctors said the 82-year-old leader’s condition was “reassuring,” Reuters reports. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi called yesterday to check on his health, according to an Ittihadiya statement.

Resurging tourism markets in Egypt, Tunisia, and Turkey are luring British tourists away from Spanish coastal city Benidorm, leading to a 2.2% y-o-y drop in the number of arrivals during the first half of May alone, according to Spanish hotel management group Hosbec. British tourists are mainly drawn by the lower prices of flights and accommodation in the three countries.

Ukrainian charter airline SkyUp launched its operations yesterday with two inaugural flights to Sharm El Sheikh, the Ukraine Business Journal reports. Ukraine International Airlines had resumed direct flights to Cairo last month as Egypt saw a 90% y-o-y jump in Ukrainian tourist arrivals in 2017.

Facebook sees the Middle East’s increased internet usage during Ramadan as a growth opportunity for brands and marketers, Forbes Middle East reports. The social media network found that users in the MENA region are spending 14.8% more time online during Ramadan (figure climbs to 39.6% at night). Regional brands using Facebook to promote their products, such as online fashion retailer Splash and cosmetics company L’Oreal, are also seeing increased activity on their pages.

A new initiative is hoping to transform Cairo into a greener, bike-friendly city, Egypt Independent reports. Launched by social entrepreneurship incubator, Nahdet El Mahrousa, Sekketak Khadra (“Your Path is Green”) aims to “encourage people to leave their cars behind and opt for biking instead,” says Communications Manager Rana Al Sadek. The initiative, which comes in partnership with the Danish Embassy, Cairo Governorate, UN Habitat, and local community partner Heliopolis Heritage, hopes to install 100 bike racks across the city, beginning with El Korba neighbourhood in Heliopolis.