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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Precious little, ladies and gentlemen: Like the nation’s business journalists, we will now fall into a post-EEDC stupor. Also: Don’t forget that Saturday is Mother’s Day in Egypt.

THE WEEK AHEAD

23-29 March (Monday-Sunday): 26th Arab Summit, Sharm El Sheikh.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Coverage and analysis of the deadly terrorist attack on Bardo museum in the Tunisian capital on Wednesday featured prominently on last night’s talk shows.

“An ikhwani is an ikhwani, no matter where he is or what passport he holds. He is not loyal to anyone or anything other than his own organization,” said Khairy Ramadan.

Ibrahim Eissa spoke at great length about the events in Tunisia. “I don’t mean to be insensitive about the tragedy that took place in Tunisia today, but quite honestly what happened there is proof that all the rhetoric about Tunisia’s successful transition to democracy is complete nonsense. They have just as big a problem with terrorism as we do.”

According to Eissa Tunisia’s ongoing fight against terror is a confirmation to the entire world that the inclusion of political Islam in the mainstream secular system does not work. “Doesn’t Tunisia have Islamists in Parliament? Haven’t they been included in the political process? Isn’t this supposed to be the solution to combating terrorism in our part of the world? Wasn’t this the path that you wanted Egypt to take? I hope that the west will finally realize that these people want to rule or else.”

Youssef El Housseiny interviewed Egyptian singer Hisham Abbas who said he has felt secure and optimistic about Egypt ever since Abdelfattah El-Sisi became President. Abbas spoke about “Egypt is Calling” the song that he wrote and sang in English, French and Arabic for the EEDC.

SPEED ROUND

The economy dominated discussions between senior military leaders and President Abdelfattah El-Sisi at a meeting yesterday. The president and top brass reviewed plans for the handover of land now reserved for The Capital Cairo (please, God — someone give it a new name?), with El-Sisi urging the generals to finalize the handover of land as quickly as possible so work on the site can begin. Also notable:Military leaders briefed El-Sisi on plans to zone parts of military airfields for use by civil aviation, Al-Mal reports.

Cairo takes first place on PwC’s list of the 20 African Cities of Opportunity in a ranking of the most dynamic and future-focused cities of the continent. Cairo is followed by Tunis and four of the top five spots are in North Africa. PwC attributes the “preponderance of North African cities at the top is mainly due to the length of time they have been established.  This has given them time to develop infrastructure, regulatory and legal frameworks as well as establishing socio-cultural ecosystems. Johannesburg is the only exception to this pattern.”

CABINET WRAP-UP: The Council of Ministers had their weekly meeting on Wednesday with Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab at the head of the table. The session was dominated by discussion of the EEDC along with security issues. The main decisions taken included:

• Sanctioning the resumption of the Egyptian football league from 30 March sans spectators. (Read in Arabic)
• Calling on holding regional economic conferences across various Egyptian cities to increase economic awareness. (Read in Arabic)
• Beginning preparations for next year’s EEDC. (Read in Arabic)
• Asking the Minister of Planning to hold a conference to explain the new civil service law. (Read in Arabic)
• Stressing the need to accelerate the licensing processes and paperwork for projects agreed to at the EEDC. (Read in Arabic)

On a related note: A newly formed Investment Ministry committee will monitor agreements and follow-up on MoUs signed in Sharm, officials said yesterday.

Industry leaders will meet today with the senior officials at the Ministry of Tourism to discuss the decision to cancel the issuance of visas on arrival, Al-Masry Al-Youm reports. The meeting comes as Foreign Ministry Spokesman Badr Abdel Ati told Ahram Online yesterday that neither current foreign residents of Egypt nor organized tour groups would be affected by the new regime. The paper also noted that the head of the Customs and Immigration Authority “said that they haven’t received any new visa regulations from the foreign ministry. ‘We will be working by the old visa procedures until we get other instructions.’” See more on global media coverage of the issue in Egypt in the News, below.

State Council judges says judges are not bound by government salary cap: Judges at Maglis El-Dawla (State Council) decided that the government’s salary cap does not apply to the judicial authority. This makes judges the third category of state employees to not be bound to the restriction with the other two being employees of Telecom Egypt and some special banks including the Export Development Bank and the Housing and Development Bank. The government’s salary cap is EGP 42,000 (c USD 5,500) a month. (Read in Arabic)

Alabbar’s Egypt involvement sees Emaar shares slump. Shares of Dubai-listed property developer Emaar shed 5.3% yesterday to close at their lowest level in three months on concerns chairman and founder Mohamed Alabbar “may scale back his role in the company as he spearheads massive infrastructure projects in Egypt,” U.A.E. media noted. The news follows confirmation by Emaar that it has no involvement in Alabbar’s The Capital Cairo project, the new administrative capital unveiled at the EEDC that will extend Cairo to the east. Both Bloomberg and The National have decent takes this morning.

Egypt and Saudi Arabia signed a customs agreement on Wednesday, according to an announcement by Magdy Abdel Aziz, Chairman of the Customs Authority. The agreement will cover a period of three years and aims to facilitate trade between the two countries, and awaits parliamentary approval once the legislative body is in place. (Read)

“Ministries of interior remain black boxes with opaque decision making processes,” says Carnegie’s Middle East Center’s Yezid Sayigh in his report about the politics of police reform in Egypt and Tunisia. You can catch the one-page brief (pdf) or if you have more time on your hands, the full 30-page report(pdf).

A police major-general and a conscript have been bound over for trial on charges they concealed evidence from investigators looking into the 24 January 2014 shooting death of leftist activist Shaymaa El Sabbagh, who was killed during a peaceful march to Tahrir, Ahram Online reports.

Flat6Labs to launch Beirut accelerator: Startup accelerator Flat6Labs is opening an office in Beirut, the fourth in the region following ones in Cairo, Jeddah, and Abu Dhabi, co-founder Hany El Sonbaty announced. “Our offering in Beirut will be consistent with our offerings across the region: seed stage financing, business training, access to top quality mentors, and a whole host of perks and administrative support,” Wamda quotes El Sonbaty. Flat6Labs plans to invest in fields including hardware, electronics, and healthcare in its Beirut chapter. The Beirut chapter will be launched in conjunction with Arabnet. (Read)

The BBC chronicles what it says is “The rising number of female Egyptian entrepreneurs“ uses up two-thirds of its runway before citing a Cairo University economics prof as claiming “today’s rate of 11% of Egyptian entrepreneurs being women compares with just 3% eight years ago.” The piece uses two niqabi micro-entrepreneurs, home accessory maker Joud and gives a shout-out to Neveen El-Tahri, who is investing in startups via a startup of her own: 138 Pyramids.

Hosni Mubarak would have voted for President Abdelfattah El-Sisi — or so says Kuwaiti journalist Fajer El-Saeed, who last made news in Enterprise with her January interview with Suzanne Mubarak (see coverage of the Suzanne interview in Al-Ahram and Al-Arabiya). El-Saeed is back with what she claims is an exchange with the former president that began with hand-written answers to her question on his account of the liberation of Sinai. More on her twitter account and a couple of articles in Al-Masry Al-Youm, here andhere.

As noted in the talk show reviews above, suspected Islamist militants murdered 19 people in downtown Tunis yesterday: two Tunisians, including a member of the security forces, as well as 17 foreign tourists, with some of the gunmen dressed in military uniforms. The attack took place at the National Bardo Museum next to the country’s parliament, where officials were debating a new counter-terrorism bill. The government believes the original target of the attack may have been the parliament itself, but then shifted to the museum given its less restrictive security. The gunmen took hostages and holed up in the museum before security forces announced it had killed two gunmen, but said that some of the attackers may have escaped. While no group has yet claimed responsibility, however Daesh supporters online were exchanging congratulatory messages, citing a video posted online in December 2014 by a Tunisian member of the group where he claimed responsibility for the assassination of two secular Tunisian politicians, warning: “You will not live in safety as long as Tunisia is not ruled by Islam.” (Read in The New York Times)

President Abdelfattah El Sisi called Tunisian President Beji Caid Essebsi to express his condolences and solidarity with the people of Tunisia, condemning the attack, and “confirming Egypt’s support to Tunisia in its war against terrorism, which has no boundaries or religion,” according to an emailed statement from Ittihadiya.

Benjamin Netanyahu has won a fourth term as Israel’s Prime Minister, putting the United States in general and the Obama administration in particular in an awkward position, as Netanyahu explicitly stated that a Palestinian state will not be created under his watch, and that settlement activity will continue. The AP carries comments by two unnamed Obama administration officials as suggesting that Netanyahu’s statements and re-election could make the United States reconsider its position over vetoing any potential Palestinian resolution for statehood that comes before the Security Council. (Read)

Twitter is set to open its first Middle East office to cover MENA operations from Dubai.

Dozens were hurt, 350 arrested, and police cars were set alight in riot targeting the new European Central Bank headquarters in Frankfurt. The left-wing protesters were expressing their anger at the ECB’s role in austerity measures that have been part of bailout packages offered to European states including Greece, Spain and Portugal. (Read)

Fed gives itself breathing room on rate hike: The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank removed a single word — “patient” — from its primary policy statement, but sounded at the same time a note of caution by downgrading its economic growth and inflation projects. What does this mean in plain English: The Fed has given itself leeway to raise interest rates at mid-year to (as Reuters has it) “push borrowing costs to more normal levels,” but won’t take action if the economy softens. Or as the WSJ notes: “The Federal Reserve opened a door to raising short-term interest rates by midyear, but signaled it’s in no hurry to walk through it.”

U.S., European airlines continuing to hate on Gulf carriers. Regular readers will remember the stories we noted several weeks back on U.S. and European airlines complaining about the unfair advantages of GCC-based national airlines — airlines that, you know, treat travelers as something slightly better than cattle. That fight show no signs of abating: ‘U.S. Airlines Want to Ban Gulf Carrier Growth in Open Skies Spat,’ says Bloomberg (in a piece picked up by Skift). The FT is also getting in on the act, but on the other side of the coin, noting the three major competitive advantages of GCC carriers (geography, being owned by “determined, autocratic governments” and having “started from scratch”) as John Gapper declares: ‘Stop trying to ground the Gulf airlines‘.

(Air Canada would love to get in on the hate-on-the-GCC party, too, but Ottawa is still moping after its gambit of refusing additional landing rights in Canada for U.A.E. carriers saw the Emirates kick Canada out of its super-secret U.A.E. military logistics base — and Canadians slapped with visa requirements to visit. The dispute ended only last year with the ritual drinking of coffee in Tim Hortons.)

WORTH READING

Solar Power Comes of Age, Foreign Affairs: “Solar power has been declared a winner before, only to flounder. It’s easy to remain skeptical today, given that solar power accounts for less than one percent of the global energy supply. But it is also expanding faster than any other power source, with an average growth rate of 50 percent a year for the past six years. Annual installations of photovoltaic panels increased from a capacity of less than 0.3 gigawatts in 2000 to 45 gigawatts in 2014—enough to power more than 7.4 mn American homes. This time really is different: solar power is ready to compete on its own terms.” (Read)

DIPLOMACY

CNN’s Christiane Amanpour spoke with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry on Monday, seeking his comment on the fight against Daesh, the P5+1 negotiations with Iran, the Israeli general election and the proposed administrative capital. (Watch, running time: 9:19)

***
A MESSAGE FROM PHAROS HOLDING: Pharos is proud to have presented three mega-projects at the EEDC with an aggregate investment cost of USD 22.5 bn, including a hydrocracker complex in Assiut, a high-end residential and commercial project in Sheikh Zayed, and a USD 20 bn mixed-use urban development in Sixth of October. The latter, the 42 km2 October Oasis, was the subject of an MoU signed at EEDC between Abu Dhabi-based SWF Aabar, the Egyptian real estate developer Palm Hills Developments, and the Government of Egypt. Learn more about these projects here.
***

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

The lead story on Egypt in the foreign press last night and into this morning continues to be the newly-announced cancellation of tourist visas on arrival set to take effect from 15 May 2015.

The Guardian’s Patrick Kingsley gets a quote from former Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou: “No doubt, it will have an effect … Pre-2011, 25% of tourists were individual tourists. After the revolution it went down, and now it is somewhere between 15 and 20%. So you’re speaking about 2 mn people. It’s a big size.” Zaazou said the effect might be felt both in the Gulf, where he said tourists often leave at the last minute, and in the west, where many potential tourists live far from the nearest Egyptian consulate. “America is a very big country, it’s like a continent and you have a very limited number of consulates,” said Zaazou. “So it might have a big effect there.” (Read)

The possibility that all of this is a trial balloon is implied in The Telegraph’s take on the story: “A spokesperson for the Egyptian tourist office in London said that they had no information on the changes and were waiting for the official position from Cairo, expected early next week.” The same piece also has a an option for readers to take an informal poll on whether the newly-announced regulation would deter them from visiting Egypt. As of early this morning, out of c.400 votes, almost 80% voted that they would not choose to visit Egypt as a result of the new regulation. The piece also brings up a very important point regarding the capacity of Egypt’s travel offices abroad, partially alluded to by former minister Zaazou in The Guardian piece above: “Anthony Sattin, a Telegraph Travel contributor and expert on Egypt, said that independent tourists may well find the process of obtaining a visa longer. ‘I doubt Egyptian consulates are ready for the influx.’” (Read)

“This decision is surprising and strange,” said Khaled Al Menawi, head of the non-governmental Chamber of Tourism Companies, to Gulf News. The same group has called a crisis meeting for next week and will urge President Abdelfattah El Sisi to scrap the regulations, according to the report.

WORTH WATCHING

Satire: Judge rules white girl to be tried as a black man, by the Onion News Network (Watch, running time: 1:53)

Adam Sandler, lazy comedian and sometimes interesting dramatic actor who freely admits he’s been phoning it in since Fifty First Dates, is starring in Pixels this summer, about an alien invasion taking the form of popular video game characters. Animated television series Futurama already did this back in 2002 with bit more wit, class and style in the season 3 episode Anthology of Interest II, in a segment called Raiders of the Lost Arcade. (Watch, running time: 2:01)

During a C-SPAN segment yesterday allowing viewers to call in and voice their opinions on what role the U.S. Congress should have with regard to nuclear negotiations with Iran, the program received a call from someone retelling the story of exactly how they ended up moving to Bel-Air. (Watch, running time: 0:56)

American photographer Ryan Deboodt used a variety of techniques, including an aerial drone, to film footage of the otherworldly Hang Son Doong, the world’s largest cave (at 38.5 mn cubic meters), which thanks to “skylights” has an entire tropical forest growing inside. (Watch, running time: 6:18)

ENERGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY & SUBSIDY REFORM

SkyPower, IGD sign solar power agreement with Egypt
PR Newswire | 17 March 2015
SkyPower Global and International Gulf Development (IGD) signed an agreement with Egypt for the development of 3,000MW of utility-scale solar photovoltaic (PV) projects to be built over the next four years. The investment value of project is estimated at USD 5 bn and is set to contribute to the creation of 75,000 new jobs. The deal includes 600 MW of fabrication and assembly facilities in Egypt and a commitment of USD 173 mn for education, training, and research and development. (Read)

Jordan’s Philadelphia Solar signed 50MW MoU with NREA at the EEDC
PV Magazine | 18 March 2015
Jordanian PV developer and manufacturer Philadelphia Solar signed an MoU with the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) to build a 50 MW-ac PV plant. Philadelphia will sign a power purchase agreement with Egypt’s transmission company to sell the electricity for USD 0.143 per kilowatt hour for a period of 25 years. The government announced that the PPA draft will be ready for review by April. (Read)

Al Nowais calls for the removal of ownership limits in energy investments in Sinai
Al Borsa | 18 March 2015
Al Nowais considers the stipulation that 55% of any project based in Sinai be owned by Egyptians as an obstacle to it building a coal-fired power plant. The Ministry of Electricity asked the cabinet to exempt all energy project from the domestic ownership requirement. However, sources told Al Borsa that any change in the status quo will require the passing of a new law. (Read in Arabic)

NREA allocates land for four investors to build solar power stations
Al Borsa | 18 March 2015
The National Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) allocated land plots for four investors to build solar power stations on based on the government’s feed-in-tariff system. The land allocated allows for the building of four stations with capacities of 50 MW each. OTMT and Scatec are amongst the four companies that have submitted completed paperwork and were thus given the land plots. (Read in Arabic)

OIL & GAS

Tamar reservoir to supply Egypt with gas following Dolphinus deal
JPost | 18 March 2015
The Tamar gas reservoir is set to supply Egypt with natural gas following a seven-year deal signed with Dolphinus Holdings Limited, JPost reports. According to the USD 1.2 bn deal, a minimum of 5 bcm will be supplied to Egypt for the first three years through the Egyptian East Mediterranean Gas Company pipeline at a yet-to-be-determined price. Prior to this deal, the Tamar partners had signed a letter of intent to use UFG’s liquefaction plant in Damietta, while the Leviathan partners signed one for BG’s plant in Idku. (Read)

EGPC to begin producing crude from South Iraq by 2016
Daily News Egypt | 17 March 2015
South Iraq’s block 9 concession in Basra is set to begin producing crude by the beginning of 2016, EGPC said. Tarek El Molla, EGPC’s CEO said the reserves at the concession, which EGPC has the rights to 10% of it, has 1.1 bn barrels of crude and initial estimates expect a daily production of 11, 000 barrels of crude and could reach 80,000 barrels a  day. EGPC’s shares will be exported to Egypt and refined in local refineries. (Read)

Gas from Cyprus’ Aphrodite field can be used domestically or exported –CHC
Cyprus Mail | 17 March 2015
Natural gas produced from the Aphrodite gas field can be channeled for domestic consumption or exported regionally, the head of the Cyprus Hydrocarbons Company said. 1 bcf a year is sufficient for Cypriot domestic consumption, with the rest set to be exported. John Burley, VP of Business Development for BG Group Egypt, said “the company’s facilities there can absorb gas from both Aphrodite and Israel’s Leviathan field, provided that part of this gas would be channeled to domestic demand in Egypt.” (Read)

EGAS signs MoU with Jordan’s Fajr to increase natural gas cooperation
Al Borsa | 18 March 2015
EGAS has signed a MoU with the Jordanian Egyptian Fajr for Natural Gas Company to increase gas cooperation and expand the joint-use of energy infrastructure. This came during a visit of a Jordanian energy delegation, led by the energy minister, to Egypt. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Bavaria Auto Group to invest EGP 100 mn
Al Mal | 18 March 2015
Bavaria Auto Group, the exclusive distributor of BMW in Egypt, plans to invest EGP 100 mn in two projects: service center on the Cairo-Alexandria highway and a sales center in the district of Moqatam. (Read in Arabic)

Oriental Weavers divests from Oriental Petrochemical Company for EGP 24.325 mn
Al Mal | 18 March 2015
A representative from the investor relations department of Oriental Weavers, announced that the company sold its 11.7 % stake in Oriental Petrochemical Company for EGP 24.325 mn. The company’s divestment from the petrochemicals company resulted in a 2.3% rise in Oriental Weavers’ net profits. On a related note, the representative also revealed that the company received the seven industrial looms it had ordered at a cost USD 7 mn. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE

Amer Group to have 17 shopping malls operating by 2018
Al Mal | 18 March 2015
Amer Group plans on building nine new malls until 2018. This would bring up the total number of malls operated by Amer to 17 by then. Amer Group has about 5.5 mn sqm of unused land that is expected to be used in projects. Amer Group’s net profit grew by 670.5% y-o-y in 2014 to record EGP 246.54 mn. (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS + ICT

TE Data increases market share to 65.3%
Al Borsa | 18 March 2015
TE Data grew its customer base by 2.4% y-o-y to register 1.98 mn subscribers by 4Q2014. This drove its market share up to 65.3%, leaving Linkdotnet a distant second with 23.5% of the market. Out of the large ISPs, only Etisalat experienced a decrease in its business after losing 10 thousand clients y-o-y to record 130 thousand in 4Q2014. (Read in Arabic)

Egyptian high-speed internet users reach 3 mn
Al Borsa | 18 March 2015
There are over 3 mn high speed internet users in Egypt, according to data provided by Telecom Egypt. The number of internet users is growing by approximately 15% annually. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

MoUs signed at the EEDC to result in firm contracts within 50 days –Al Ahwany
Amwal Al Ghad | 18 March 2015
MoUs that were signed at the EEDC will translated into contracts within the next 50 days, the Minister of International Cooperation, Naglaa Al Ahwany said. She added that what Egypt needs now is the announcement of a package of investment projects, noting that the EEDC mostly included investment ideas. Al Ahwany also said that Qatar did not participate at the conference neither officially nor through the private sector whereas Turkey and Israel weren’t invited. (Read in Arabic)

Cairo Chamber of Commerce signs protocol to increase trade with Poland
Al Ahram | 18 March 2015
A protocol to increase trade was signed between the Cairo Chamber of Commerce and the Polish Chamber of Commerce. The Polish Ambassador to Egypt attended the signing along with 15 Polish investors looking to invest in Egypt. The Ambassador invited Egyptian investors to attend and investment conference in Poland next October. (Read in Arabic)

Budget deficit to be 9.5 – 10% of GDP in FY2015/16 -Finance Ministry
Al Mal | 18 March 2015
According to a preliminary budget forecast presented by the Ministry of Finance, Egypt’s budget deficit will be between 9.5% to 10% of the country’s GDP during the current fiscal year. According to the same source, the budget deficit will fall to 8% to 8.5% of GDP in FY 2018/19. This forecast, however, assumes that Egypt annual GDP growth rate will not fall below 4.5%-5% and will reach 8%-8.5% by FY 2018/19. (Read in Arabic)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Dragon Oil gets buyout approach from ENOC: “Dubai-based Dragon Oil has received an offer from Emirates National Oil Company (Enoc) for the 46 per cent of the company that it does not already own, according to statements made by both companies via the London and Irish stock exchanges, where Dragon is listed.” (Read in The National)

BY THE NUMBERS

USD CBE auction (Wednesday, 18 March): 7.5301 (unchanged since Monday, 02 Feb)
USD parallel market (Wednesday, 18 March): 7.70 (+0.03 from Monday, 16 March)

EGX30 (Wednesday): 9,484.08 (-0.81%)
Turnover: EGP 521.2 mn (18% below the 90-day average)

WTI: USD 44.11 (-1.23%)
Brent: USD 55.68 (-0.41%)

TASI: 9,133.9 (-1.8%)
ADX: 4,280.1 (-1.2%)
DFM: 3,408.2 (-3.6%)
KSE Weighted Index: 438.4 (-0.2%)
QE: 11,426.6 (-2.2%)
MSM: 6,232.8 (+0.2%)