As for the global economy? The IMF sees global growth at 3.9% in 2018 and 2019, a 20 bps improvement from its October 2017 forecast. Driving the uptick is faster growth in the Euro area, Japan, China, and the US, all of which grew above expectations last year on the back of improved trade and investment. Several other emerging markets will also do better this year than previous projections, including Brazil, Mexico, and European EMs. “The aggregate gains for this country group are, however, weighed down by sharp downward revisions for a few countries in the grip of civil strife, notably Libya, Venezuela, and Yemen.”

Look for trouble on the global stage after 2020, the IMF warns, noting that world growth will slow and that the “first shots” have likely been fired in a potential trade war, according to Bloomberg’s coverage, citing a press conference with the IMF’s chief economist later in the day. The report also warns that “Financial conditions are expected to tighten naturally with the closing of output gaps and monetary policy normalization.”

The landing page for the full report is here or you can go download it here (pdf), read the executive summary (pdf) or check out the foreword (pdf).