Debating the Ismail government’s deficit-reduction target: The analyst community is asking questions of the deficit reduction target in the draft FY2018-19 budget approved by cabinet on Sunday. The document sees the deficit falling to 8.4% of GDP against an expected 9.6-9.8% this year. Sigma Capital chief economist Aya Abdullah sees the goal as very achievable, considering the revenues the government hopes to net from the state IPO program. CI Capital Asset Management economist Noaman Khalid disagrees, projecting that next year’s budget deficit would not fall below 9% of GDP. He tells Al Shorouk that the government’s debt obligations are too high to hit its deficit target.

Meanwhile, the government is expecting GDP growth to reach between 5.3% and 5.4% in 3Q2018-17, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy tells Reuters.

Definitive plans for an international IPO of Saudi Aramco appear dead in the water, with Saudi officials apparently believing an international IPO has become much more complicated than they initially believed, the Wall Street Journal. The decision to list in Riyadh only — for now — has come in part because of concerns about legal risks and also because the need for a bigger listing has been negated by rising oil prices. An IPO on the Tadawul next year appears definite based on comments by the kingdom’s oil minister.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman lands in Washington for meetings with US President Donald Trump, and coverage of the event by the US media is reaching a fever pitch. Most, including the Wall Street Journal, appear focused on political dimension of the visit, particularly MbS’ push for a had line on Iran. On the economic front, the conversation appears dominated by the change in the nature of US-Saudi ties in light of the US shale revolution. See also coverage from the Financial Times and CNBC.

MbS explains the November Ritz Carlton crackdown: In advance of the visit, bin Salman sat down with CBS’ 60 Minutes to discuss a wide range of issues, not least of which was the purge of last November, which the Prince denies was a power play, saying instead it was a move to rein in corruption. Adviser Mohammed Al Sheikh said that the move wasn’t easy given the names involved. “But we just felt that we had to do this. And and we had to do it that way.” Al Sheikh said that corruption had been equal to 20% of Saudi government spending or up to USD 20 bn annually. Bin Salman boasted that the crackdown retrieved USD 100 bn, but that objective was not the money, but to show that “a new sheriff is in town.” Other issues discussed include Saudi’s rivalry with Iran, human rights, the campaign in Yemen, and more freedom for Saudi women. You can catch the full interview here (watch, runtime: 26:36).

Also making headlines on a busy news morning internationally:

• Uber has stopped tests of self-driving cars after one of its cars killed a woman crossing the street in Tempe, Arizona. The incident is reigniting debate over the safety of autonomous vehicles. (Reuters | Wall Street Journal)
• Facebook shares took their deepest dive in four years yesterday as “backlash intensified over claims it had been used to harvest the data of mns of US voters.” (FT | WSJ | NYT)
• The UK has agreed a 21-month-long “Brexit transition” in a conditional pact reached yesterday. (Politico)

Negative social mobility: Black boys raised in America by rich families are more likely to become poor than they are to stay wealthy when they become adults themselves, even when they stay in the same neighbourhoods — and there’s no similar income gap between black and white women as adults. The findings are based a study of some 20 mn children born in the US between 1978 and 1983, the New York Times reports. Worth reading for the data visualization alone.

A custom-made gold watch that belonged to Egypt’s King Farouk will go on auction at Christie’s Dubai this week, where it is expected to be sold for as much as USD 800k, Reuters reports. The watch is made of 18k gold and engraved with Egypt’s royal crown and the letter “F.”

PSA- Unseasonably hot weather continues today, with the high this afternoon forecast at 30°C as of dispatch time. Look for the mercury to peak at 40°C on Friday before cooling to 24°C on Saturday.