What we’re tracking on 10 January 2018
The bull run continues: The EGX30 closed at an all-time high yesterday of 15,159 on decent volume of EGP 1.3 bn, or about 19% above the trailing 90-day average. Foreign institutions drove the run toward the record level.
The central bank issued another warning (pdf) on Tuesday against trading or transacting in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The CBE said cryptocurrencies were unstable as they were not backed by a government entity — and pointed to waves of speculation that late last year drove the value of a single Bitcoin to over USD 15,000. The value currently trades at USD 14,096 to the BTC 1. The CBE’s move came as China moved to “eradicate the country’s bitcoin mining industry over concerns about excessive electricity consumption and financial risk,” the Financial Times reports, and as shares of one-time photography giant Eastman Kodak doubled after it said it would launch a cryptocurrency called “KODAKCoin” for photographers.
Speaking of the central bank: Bloomberg is out with a nice piece that it’s headlining A Guide to MENA Central Banks. Onur Ant and Cairo-based Ahmed Feteha note that, “After a year of rising U.S. interest rates and political volatility that drove up borrowing costs in much of the Middle East and North Africa, the region’s central banks have more divergent goals in 2018.” They go on to outline expectations ranging from easing of interest rates in Egypt as early as Q1 to political pressure in Turkey and a potential float in Morocco.
The Federation of Egyptian Industries and the House Industrial Committee will discuss proposed amendments to the Public Procurement Law today. The law promotes local industry by granting Egyptian products preferential treatment in government contracts. The FEI is hoping to bring down the minimum quota for Egyptian products used in national projects, saying local producers just can’t meet demand, members say.
Our national attitude toward the Giza Pyramids gets nicely roasted by The Onion: “‘Recently unearthed papyrus rolls dating from 2400 B.C. confirm that most Egyptians of the time went to the pyramids of Giza once as a kid and thought they were pretty cool, but seldom returned to the majestic tombs unless they had a buddy visiting who had never been there before,’ said archaeology professor Sidney Colliver, adding that the lack of other fun things to do in Giza and the nuisance of traversing the Sahara Desert meant that most people who lived in the area only made it out to the pyramids once every four or five years, tops,” a satirical piece in The Onion, hitting so close to home, says.
And today in miscellany:
The World Bank’s 2018 global growth forecast is making headlines in the business press around the world, and what you take away from it depends largely on what you’re looking for. The Financial Times notes that the bank believes “global growth appears to have peaked, with demographics, a lack of investment, a slowing in productivity gains and tightening monetary policy placing limits on economic expansion.” Meanwhile, the Guardian zeroes in on the idea that “financial markets are complacent about the risks of sharply higher interest rates that could be triggered by better than expected growth in the global economy this year,” while the AFP highlights the idea that while growth this year will be strong, that just makes it all the more urgent for countries to prepare for the next major economic crisis.
What the World Bank is forecasting, by the numbers:
- 3.1% global growth in 2018
- Emerging markets to grow 4.5% as a whole
- Advanced economies set to post gains of 2.2%
- MENA growing at a 3% clip (against 1.8% in 2017)
- Egypt to grow at 4.5% in 2018 from 4.2% last year.
The rehabilitation of hedge funds continues as the global industry produced its best returns last year since 2013, and this makes us oddly happy. Reports the Financial Times: “Figures tallied by HFR, the research group, this week show that hedge funds across all strategies produced returns of 8.5 per cent in 2017, better than the 5.4 per cent recorded in 2016. Equities hedge funds — which include long-short funds, growth and value funds and sector-specific strategies — were up 13.2 per cent, their best showing in four years.”
(We promise you our happiness at hedgie performance is entirely unrelated to our love of Bn’s, the Showtime TV series pitting Damian Lewis as the hedge fund boss going head-to-head with district attorney Paul Giamatti. Season three will begin on 25 March in the US — catch the trailer here.)
Expect this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos to get interesting — and awkward: The Donald plans to attend, according to the FT. “The president welcomes opportunities to advance his ‘America First’ agenda with world leaders,” said White House spokeswoman Sarah Huckabee Sanders. “At this year’s World Economic Forum, the president looks forward to promoting his policies to strengthen American businesses, American industries, and American workers.” The story is also front page news across the pond in the Wall Street Journal. While Trump did not attend last year’s forum, his election — and his brand of populism and anti-globalist message — cast a long shadow and saw Chinese Premier Xi Jinping emerge as a champion of global trade. The theme of this year’s gathering, which will be held on 23-26 January, is “Creating a Shared Future in a Fractured World.”
And speaking of The Donald: One-time Trump partisan Steve Bannon (who has an odd connection to Egypt via his erstwhile Egyptian landlord in D.C.) stepped down yesterday as executive chairman of Breitbart News after slagging off Trump & Co. in Michael Wolff’s new book, the New York Times reports.