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Thursday, 14 September 2017

What we’re tracking on 14 September 2017

The report card is in: The economy grew 4.2% in FY2016-17, according to figures released by the Planning Ministry and covered by Reuters. Growth in the fourth quarter of the fiscal year came at 5%, up from 4% a year earlier. The final figures appear to be an upward revision from the preliminary figures released about ten days ago showing fourth quarter GDP growing by 4.9%.

Meanwhile, Egypt’s funding gap for the current fiscal year is expected ring in at about USD 12 bn, Finance Minister Amr El Garhy tells Daily News Egypt. This is a significant reduction from the USD 34-35 bn the ministry had projected for FY2017-18 when it first launched the economic reform program last year, said El Garhy. The funding gap for next fiscal year should hover at around USD 12-14 bn, he added.

This comes as CAPMAS reported that Egypt’s non-oil industrial output jumped 29.2% y-o-y in 4Q2016 to EGP 114.3 bn,Al Shorouk reports. Food products, which accounted for 13.7% of overall output, grew to EGP 25.2 bn, while steel production rose to EGP 10.8 bn.

We’re making a cameo in the investigation into US President Donald Trump’s ties to Russia: Democratic lawmakers are investigating whether former national security adviser Michael Flynn secretly promoted a US-Russian project to build nuclear reactors in the Middle East, including in Egypt. Flynn had reportedly flown to Egypt in 2015 to get the government to slow the signing of the Dabaa nuclear contracts to consider the alternative US-Russian proposal to have its nuclear program run by a consortium of companies from the US, Russia and other European nations and funded by the GCC. We have more on the story in the Speed Round.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will be attending the opening ceremony of the Alliance for Financial Inclusion’s 2017 Global Policy Forum in Sharm El Sheikh, which is being hosted by the Central Bank of Egypt. At dispatch time, the president was scheduled to give a keynote address. Central bank governor Tarek Amer and Prime Minister Sherif Ismail will also be speaking at the opening ceremony. Today’s session is set to see the signing of the Financial Inclusion in the Arab Region Initiative (FIARI). A pre-recorded speech by Deputy Governor of the Bank of England and the incoming director of the London School of Economics Nemat Shafik is also on the agenda, which you can view (pdf).

A meeting in Sudan today of technical experts from Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia to discuss the impact of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on downstream countries might be a little frosty after Egyptian security forces reportedly arrested a group of Sudanese miners. It’s the second time miners have been arrested on Egyptian territory in under a year and comes with relations at a low point. Tensions continue to simmer over renewed territorial claims by Sudan over the Egypt’s Halayeb and Shalatin regions and a boycott by Sudan of Egypt’s agriculture goods.

Further afield: Is the bull run in the US of A coming to an end? With global equity and fixed income markets on a tear, “Fund managers are hoarding cash and buying protection against turbulence despite the S&P 500 rally this week becoming the second-strongest bull run in US history,” the Financial Times warns, saying Pimco and Pershing Square are “buying protection against turmoil” and Bridgewater’s Ray Dalio told an industry event last week that the world’s largest hedge fund group is “reducing our risk.”

Finally, as we slide into the weekend, the only thing that leaves us more conflicted than the approach of another birthday (oddly enough, two of us share the same day) is the notion that that means we’re “getting old.” As the New York Times put it this morning: “Most people wouldn’t say that a 38-year-old qualifies, but once you pass the median age of 37.8, you may statistically be considered ‘old.’” To help cope, read the Times’ “Feeling Older? Here’s How to Embrace It” and then head back to the archive for “Lessons on Aging Well, From a 105-Year-Old Cyclist.” consider adding weight lifting to your regimen: The Telegraph tells us it’s “the new running for the over-40s,” Men’s Health says folks will get the most bang for their buck from the “big” lifts, and one researcher found that “resistance training can reverse aspects of aging at the gene level.”

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