FX WATCH

The Egyptian pound held steady at the CBE dollar sale yesterday, but weakened on the unofficial market. In the unofficial market, the pound was trading at 7.73 to the dollar on Wednesday against 7.71 the day before.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Urban consumer inflation in November fell to 9.1% from 11.8% in October – below 10% for the first time since June. The drop came mostly on the back of a 3.5% decrease in food price inflation in October to record an annual rate of 7.1% in November. Since the reduction of the fuel subsidy at the start of the fiscal year in July, inflation rates have been stuck in double-digits. (CAPMAS release)

The electoral districts law is out, and the gnashing of teeth may now begin: Yesterday’s weekly Cabinet meeting saw ministers sign-off on a redistricting bill that will see the next People’s Assembly be home to 567 seats, 420 of them earmarked for independents, 120 for party lists, and a further 27 for members to be appointed by the Office of the President. We’ll have more on this front next week. (Read)

Hosni Mubarak was not released yesterday, as originally suggested by a story in Ahram Online.

The GCC summit that endorsed President Abdelfattah El-Sisi ended with a pledge to form a Gulf police force to be headquartered in the UAE and a joint naval base in Bahrain. (Read)

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

You know it’s a slow talk show Wednesday when the only interesting thing on TV is the Egyptian Spiderman. Mehwar’s Iman El Hosary interviewedSpiderman, who has been out and about all over the city (as we’ve previously reported), and his partner, photographer, Hossam Atef. Let’s just say that Spiderman is much more impressive in photos than on television. If he’s going to continue making in-person appearances, Spiderman needs media training.

“It was just intended as a photo shoot. A friend of a friend bought me the suit from the U.S and we decided would go to typical Egyptian neighborhoods and do typical Egyptian things dressed as Spiderman,” said Spiderman. “But we never expected to get this much attention.”

Apparently photographer Atef was already a bit of a celebrity. BeforeSpiderman, he was best known for his camel selfie, which was ranked as one of the top 10 selfies of 2014 in an unnamed competition. The pair say they’re working on a Spiderman in Cairo documentary.

Ibrahim Eissa continued to attack Al Azhar and what he claims is its “pro-Ikhwani” leadership.

“Why do these individuals continue to hold leadership positions like the Editor-in-Chief of the Al Azhar Magazine and Sheikh El-Azhar’s Administrative Assistant, to name a few? They are making fools out of all of us. These are people who buy into the ‘coup’ mentality. Can’t we find anyone else to fill these positions?” asked Eissa. “The only reason I can think of for keeping them on is if they are blackmailing someone.”

SPEED ROUND

The EGX30 fell 0.83% to close at 9,404 on turnover of EGP 759 mn, about 11% above the 90 day average.

Regional markets were slightly down: Saudi Tadawul fell by 2.5%, DFM by 0.2%, ADX rose 0.4%, KSE gained 1.0%, Qatar inched down 0.1%, and the MSM fell 0.7%.

U.S. markets were down: DJIA by 1.5%, S&P 500 by 1.64% and NASDAQ by 1.73%. European and Asian markets were essentially flat: FTSE 0.00%, DAX up by 0.06% and CAC 40 down by 0.84%. In early trading this morning, Asian shares were down across the board, falling in China, Japan and Australia.

Bisco Misr’s employees have threatened to go on strike and havesubmitted a list of demands to “preserve their rights,” which include “reparations” to compensate for cuts in their previous years’ profit share, the offering of permanent contracts to temp workers, and increasing the size of retirement severance packages to be equivalent to 50 months’ salary. Company management, with safety considerations in mind, responded by temporarily suspending work at the Cairo plant after a large number of employees gathered there.

Egypt has a “long way to go” before it can regain the confidence of foreign investors is the crux of a piece based on an interview of Shantayanan Devarajan, the World Bank’s chief regional economist, with Bloomberg’s Salma El Wardany yesterday. Devarajan notes that while the July subsidy reforms were “tremendous,” gasoline in Cairo is still selling for a “quarter of world prices. … If I’m an investor and I see the government spending a large percentage of GDP on fuel subsidies and I know that there’s a good chance that the fuel prices can go up, then all of a sudden this economy — even if there’s political stability — could be in deep trouble.” (Read)

The Minister of Foreign Affairs said the suspension of some foreign embassies’ public services was due to foreign missions’ information about potential attacks on their facilities. “Communications between the closed embassies and Cairo are ongoing and there are indications that they will soon resume their work,” Ahram Online quotes Sameh Shoukry as saying. The UK and Canadian embassies remain closed, while the Australian embassy, the newspaper reports, has “updated its travel advice, warning of reports indicating that terrorists may be planning attacks on embassies in the capital.” (Read in Arabic on Al-Borsa or in English on Ahram Online)

The literally immortal former prime minister Kamal Ganzouri is heading up an electoral list that will include Mostafa Bakri’s Egyptian Front, as reported by Ahram Online. The Front electoral bloc consists of seven parties, including the Egyptian Movement of former prime minister Ahmed Shafiq, the Congress party (founded by Amr Moussa), the leftist Tagammu Party, and others. Ganzouri has frequently appeared at different points in human history to provide a sense of stability. (Read)

US legislators have passed a USD 1.1 tn spending bill that will keep their government running through September 2015. Among its provisions: Egypt will receive USD1.3 bn in military aid and USD 150 mn in economic assistance, the AP reports.

The Muslim Association of Britain has called upon Qatar to not hand over the fugitive Qaradawi over to Egypt. Which is funny given that the MAB is widely thought to be the Muslim Brotherhood’s arm in the UK. (Read in Ahram Online)

Palestinian Cabinet member Ziad Abu Ain died yesterday after an incident with Israeli troops during a West Bank protest. The AP, which was on the ground at the time, described the event as follows: “At one point a border policeman grabbed the Palestinian minister by the throat and pushed him, according to an Associated Press photographer. Other witnesses said a soldier also pushed a rifle butt into Abu Ain’s chest. Several minutes later, a pale-faced Abu Ain was seen sitting on the ground, then leaning back against a large rock, his right hand clutching his heart. A bystander tried to help him, patting his back and getting him to sit up, before Abu Ain slumped backward.” (Read)

Dubai Parks & Resorts saw its share price drop 9% to close at AED 0.91 yesterday during its first day of trading. “Companies without operating assets aren’t attractive to shareholders because they can’t return cash for years to come. … Obviously it’s speculators who are trading,” said one analyst. (Read)

The Fed has proposed capital increase requirements for the United States’ eight largest banks on Tuesday, including JPMorgan Chase and Goldman Sachs. (Read in NYT’s DealBook)

We’ve been telling some of you for years: Your next investor should be a Canadian pension fund, from Ontario Teachers to Omers. DealBook has a nice overview this morning of Canadian pension funds and what makes them unique: “The funds are generally free of government and union interference. They tend to look at the long term. And the salaries of pension fund officials resemble those of bankers, rather than bureaucrats. Perhaps most distinctive, however, is how the funds view themselves.” The short answer: “We’re an asset management business.” (Read)

We’re going to try next week not to be the “Hydrocarbon Morning Meeting,” but:Brent has dropped below USD 65 per barrel for the first time in five years, and some analysts are saying it could touch USD 40, Bloomberg reports. KSA seems perfectly chill with it all: “Why should I cut production?” the news service quoted Saudi Oil Minister Al-Al-Naimi as saying on the sidelines of the UN climate talks in Lima, Peru. “The Naimi comments are incredibly bearish … He is sticking to his guns, which is going to foster more panic in the market,” said another analyst.

Meanwhile, OPEC is setting low expectations for 2015 by projecting demand throughout the year to be at its weakest in 12 years at 28.9 mn bbl / day, an expectation affirmed by the US Energy Information Administration, which cut its oil price forecast in 2015 by about USD 15 / bbl. The USIA sees WTI prices averaging USD 62.75 / bbl and Brent at USD 68.08/ bbl throughout the year.

Guardian editor Alan Rusbirdger will step down next year, leaving the editor’s desk after 20 years to become chair of the trust that owns the storied lefty paper. The news represents part of a sea change in UK media, coming just a day after Economist EiC John Micklethwait announced he was stepping down to take the top job at Bloomberg News. Rusbirdger’s replacement will be announced just before he steps down in 2016. Get the details from the Guardian or the New York Times, or read this New Yorker profile of the editor, who is apparently one hell of a pianist.

WORTH WATCHING

It’s Thursday; enjoy yourself: Rihanna and Andy Samberg in their SNL Digital Shorts Shy Ronnie (Watch) and its sequel Shy Ronnie 2: Ronnie & Clyde(Watch)

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Qatar’s alleged renewal of its reconciliation with Egypt dominated news on Egypt yesterday evening. See our In Focus section below for a breakdown of what it will mean (short version: nothing).

HSBC’s economist for central and eastern Europe, the Middle East and AfricaSimon Williams is one of the lonely voices in the wilderness making sense about Gulf aid in the context of falling oil prices in his quote for Egyptian economy is back on the right track in The National: “I am not sure that lower oil prices will affect the way the Gulf aids Egypt,” says Simon Williams, the London-based chief economist for central and eastern Europe, the Middle East and Africa at HSBC. “At the margins it may have some impact but my sense is thatEgypt is a policy priority for the Gulf and they are committed to providing support to stabilize it and allow it to find its feet and to eventually begin to recover, and I don’t think the drop in oil income is going to affect that.” (Read)

“Is the special relationship between the US and Egypt over?” is the core question over a syndicated interview with the Council on Foreign Relations’ Steven Cook carried by Defense One: “There are powerful elements in both the United States and Egypt that would prefer a resumption of tight relations, but a heavy cloud of mutual suspicion will likely prevent the type of public partnership seen in the past. … ‘The long term trajectory is likely to be one where there’s more distance between the United States and Egypt,’ says Cook. For now, Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have stepped in with massive financial aid packages that dwarf that of the United States. ‘Certainly [Egypt] would like to have ties with the United States…but they do have options,’ says Cook.” (Read)

US public broadcaster NPR’s influential All Things Considered radio show carries an audio report this morning headlines “Restrictive government makes fighting [violence against women] hard In Egypt.” While hardly influential on Wall Street (where NPR’s most-listened-to offering is the amazing Planet Money), there are good odds that those of you with US government counterparts will run into people who have listened to this. (Listen)

[Editor’s Note: We’re again censoring oursleves above in the headline of the piece above as the word in question will prevent our delivery to many readers.]

An AFP piece on travel restrictions for Egyptians interested in traveling to Turkey and Libya has been fairly widely picked up, most recently by the UK’s Daily Mail.

IN FOCUS: The land mass at 25 30 N, 51 15 E

In the deceptively titled “Qatar takes pragmatic path in Gulf relations: analysts,” the AFP calls on analysts who try and fail to convince readers that Qatar’s calls for reconciliation are sincere and try and fail to explain the byzantine logic of the nano-state.

Qatar has claimed to pledge its “full support to Egypt” and President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s political program at a summit in Doha on Tuesday, only after “last-minute Kuwaiti mediation.” Wait, again? Didn’t they say and do this already in Riyadh almost a month ago? Yes, they said they would a month ago. And a month has come and gone with no change in Qatar’s behavior. The analysts in AFP’s syndicated write-up do nothing to clear any of this up, ignoring the lack of progress made since the meeting in Riyadh: “London-based analyst Abdelwahab Badrkhan said Qatar “made major concessions” on Egypt as well as Libya, “where Doha has been accused of supporting Islamist militias.”

Major concessions? Take a look at the landing pages of Al Jazeera English and Al Jazeera’s Mubasher Misr for a look at their concessions.

The only honest or useful piece of information the AFP article offers is the following: “Qatar could have made formal concessions to save the summit and joined (official) statements. ‘But this does not (necessarily) reflect a change in its policy,’ a Gulf official told AFP on condition of anonymity.”

OUR TAKE: Despite its very real desire to normalize and deepen relations with its fellow GCC members, Qatar seems simply incapable of ending its support to violent and nonviolent Islamists throughout the region, probably out of its own security calculations. Global Firepower puts Qatar’s active frontline military personnel at 11,800 strong, which is roughly equivalent to the number of people waiting around at any given bus stop in Cairo. Being therefore incapable of defending itself, it comes as no surprise that the statelet hosts the largest US military base on foreign soil. But protecting itself against conventional warfare is only part of Qatar’s security equation. By allying itself with Islamists, Qatar hopes to keep their attention and ire focused away from their state.

The Daily Beast yesterday has put out a piece documenting the permissive environment that Qatar has created for terrorism financing, which opens with the following: “It has been dubbed the most two-faced nation in the world, backing the U.S.-led coalition against the militants of the Islamic State while providing a permissive environment, in the words of one top American official, for terrorist financiers to operate with impunity. And despite a growing furor on both sides of the Atlantic, Qatar, the tiny but super-wealthy Gulf emirate, shows scant willingness to clamp down on the jihad moneymen.”

The piece cites a recently published study by David Weinberg, a former US congressional staffer, titled Qatar and Terror Finance. Download Part 1 of the study as a pdf.

ENERGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY & SUBSIDY REFORM

Egypt borrows USD 60 mn from Saudi Fund for Development to expand power station
Al Borsa | 10 Dec 2014
The Egyptian government approved the borrowing of USD 60 mn to expand the Al Shabab power station. The project aims to increase the power generation capacity by 1,500 MW by improving efficiency and adding two extra steam turbines. (Read in Arabic)

Jordan and Egypt discuss energy cooperation in Amman
Jordan News Agency | 09 Dec 2014
The Egyptian Minister of Electricity met with Jordan’s Chairman of the Board of Commissioners of the Energy and Mineral Resources Regulatory Commission, Farouq Hiyari in Amman on Tuesday. Both sides expressed readiness to cooperate on areas involving energy sector regulation and discussed best practices in the energy field as well as the peaceful usage of nuclear energy. (Read)

Huawei nears solar energy deal with Egypt
Amwal Al Ghad | 10 Dec 2014
Huawei is close to signing a cooperation protocol with the Egyptian Ministry of Electricity to carry out solar energy power plant projects in Egypt, according to a brief item by Amwal Al Ghad. Hakim Zhang, Huawei’s Vice President of Sales at Middle East and North Africa, expressed his Huawei’s interest to initiate and bolster information technology cooperation with various Egyptian state-owned sectors and entities. (Read)

OIL & GAS

BG in advanced talks with BP in Egypt over pipeline usage
Reuters | 10 Dec 2014
BG Egypt is in advanced talks to boost supplies to Egypt by allowing BP to use its pipelines, BG Egypt president Arshad Sufi told Reuters. A deal could enable BG to raise production at its Egyptian operations, which account for about one-fifth of its global gas output but have been hit hard by the turmoil of the past few years. The companies are in talks to link their gas developments off Egypt’s north coast by routing around 350 mn cubic feet of gas a day from two undeveloped BP fields into BG’s under-used WDDM offshore pipeline network. Sufi said BG was looking at “many options” to boost production in Egypt. “Of course in the Eastern Mediterranean there’s a lot of other discovered gas. So we’re in discussions with different parties,” he said. (Read)

Daily oil production exceeds 700,000 bbl / day – Ministry of Petroleum
Al Mal | 10 Dec 2014
The Minister of Petroleum, Sherif Ismail, said that daily production is now exceeding the government’s projections of 695,000 bbl / day. Currently at 700,000 bbl / day, production could increase further still as production from Petrobel’s sites commences. The Minister also stressed that the government’s payables to international oil companies will decrease significantly by June 2015 (the end of FY 2014/15) but will not be paid off fully by then. (Read in Arabic)

Talks underway to import gas from Cyprus via pipeline
Daily News Egypt | 09 Dec 2014
Minister of Petroleum Sherif Ismail said that talks are currently underway with Cyprus to import gas via a marine pipeline. A delegation from EGAS was sent to Cyprus to conduct technical discussions on the subject with a complete study expected to be ready in two months. (Read)

BASIC MATERIALS & COMMODITIES

Government decrees new law to regulate exploitation of mines and mineral resources
Shorouk | 09 Dec 2014
President Abdelfattah El-Sisi has used his temporary legislative powers to pass a law regulating the usage and exploitation of mines and mineral resources. The Egyptian Mineral Resource Authority is now allowed to ask all parties to a mineral resource exploitation contract to reconvene and renegotiate contract terms, but it does not annul current contracts; the terms of the new decree apply upon contract renewal. According to the President’s spokesperson, the new law aims to spur exploration and mining activity and create jobs. A core component of the law is its emphasis on value-added components for mineral exports. (Read in Arabic)

Work halted at MOPCO, Helwan, Alexandria and Abu Qir fertilizer plants
Al Borsa | 10 Dec 2014
Operations have completely come to a halt at several fertilizer plants, including Misr Fertilizer Production Company (MOPCO), Helwan Fertilizers Company, Alexandria Fertilizers Company and Abu Qir Fertilizers and Chemicals (AFC), as a result of a complete stoppage in the supply of natural gas. An official with Alexandria Fertilizers Company said EGAS told the company it would halt gas supplies from 3-7 December, but there were still no supplies as of yesterday. The official said EGAS is experiencing a great difficulty in providing gas supplies, which threatens the winter season’s supply of fertilizers. The ministry of agriculture had reached an agreement with MOPCO, Alexandria Fertilizers and Helwan Fertilizers for the delivery of 31,000 tons of fertilizers per month, while it agreed with Egyptian Fertilizer Company to deliver 62,000 tons per month and with Abu Qir Fertilizers for 140,000 tons each month of the winter season. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE

Government mulls reducing mortgage rates to 3% for residents of informal areas
Al Mal | 10 Dec 2014
In an effort to develop marginalized communities in Egypt, the government is mulling a reduction of the mortgage rate to 3%-4%, said the minister of urban development Dr. Laila Iskandar. Iskandar added that the government initiative aims to develop a third of the nation’s informal areas. Currently, mortgage rates are available to people with limited incomes at an interest rate of 7%-8% over 20 years. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Tourist spending increases by 15.8%
Daily News Egypt | 10 Dec 2014
According to the Ministry of Tourism’s economic advisor, Adla Ragab, tourist spending increased by 15.8% y-o-y to an average daily rate of USD 73 / tourist. According to Ragab, the ministry had undertaken large efforts to restore tourism from Arab countries with programs for tourists from Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Jordan being launched. Luxor and Aswan hotels’ occupancy rates remain low at 20% but Red Sea resorts are leading the rebound with occupancy rates of around 60%. (Read)

BANKING & FINANCE

CBE tightens hold over investment funds
Al Mal News | 10 Dec 2014
The Central Bank of Egypt has issued new regulations concerning bank participation in money market and fixed income funds, Al Mal reports, saying the measures are designed to ensure that the field is “better supervised.” The bank is also reportedly concerned with limiting the ability of banks to outsource the management of their deposits to companies that do not fall under banking regulations, the paper says, quoting CBE Deputy Governor Gamal Negm. (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS

OTMT to sell non-core assets to Accelero Capital in a EGP 140 mn deal
EGX Disclosure | 10 Dec 2014
Orascom Telecom Media and Technology Holding’s board approved the sale of assets and subsidiaries with a total enterprise value of EGP 140 mn to Accelero Capital, a company also chaired by Naguib Sawiris. Subsidiaries to be sold include: Link for Programming Development, Connect Ads for Advertising and Programming, Link Online, and Arab Finance for Brokerage. The transaction is expected to close in 1Q2015 and the parties are currently in the process of finalizing detailed transaction documents under an exclusivity arrangement. (Read)

Mobile operators lose 1.1 mn customers
Al Mal | 10 Dec 2014
The Egyptian Ministry of Communications and Information Technology published a report stating that the total number of mobile phone subscribers dropped by about 1.1 million customers to 94.7 million in September from 95.8 million customers in August. Also, the total number of internet users (subscribers) increased by 0.45% m-o-m to 46.5 million users in September from 46.3 million users in August. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

MOI to sign EGP 500 mn surveilance equipment agreement with Falcon
Al Borsa | 10 Dec 2014
A source told Al Borsa that the Ministry of Interior is about to sign an EGP 500 mn contract with Falcon Group, a subsidiary of Commercial International Bank, for cameras and surveillance equipment to be placed on streets. This contract, according to Al Borsa, would be financed through donations from banks and other businesspeople. Financing through donations would allow the Minister of Interior to approve the contract through direct order and bypass the legal tendering process. (Read in Arabic)

World’s largest floating dock carrying dredgers arrives at the Suez Canal
Al Ahram | 10 Dec 2014
Dredging operations at the site of the Suez Canal entered an advanced stage yesterday as the first dredger named “El Marfaa” (the harbor), entered the canal. In related news, the world’s largest floating dock arrived at the Suez Canal carrying two giant U.S. dredgers “Ohio” and “Carolina” to start work on deepening and expanding areas in the lakes around the canal. Meanwhile, Admiral Mohab Mamish met with a group of Emirati businessmen during which he presented an overview of the canal and provided statistics about traffic going through the vital waterway. In response to a question, Mamish said Israel stole nearly USD 500 mn in treasures from the Sinai, including two gold mines and vast quantities of groundwater while it occupied the peninsula. (Read in Arabic)

EGP 15 bn earmarked for New Suez Canal Development in current fiscal year
Al Borsa | 10 Dec 2014
The economic adviser to the chairman of the Suez Canal Authority, Abdel Tawab Hegag, was quoted on Al Borsa saying that the total cost for excavation works on the New Suez Canal will reach EGP 29 bn, to be financed by proceeds from the sale of the Suez Canal Investment Certificates. The government meanwhile has allocated EGP 15 bn from said proceeds to be pumped into the development during the current fiscal year. It is worthy to note that the total proceeds from the sale of the 12% interest bearing certificates have reach EGP 64 bn according to the Central Bank of Egypt. (Read in Arabic)

Egypt needs legal reforms for Suez Canal hub to succeed — Dar Al Handassah
Reuters | 10 Dec 2014
Yehia Zaki, director of Egypt operations at global engineering firm Dar Al-Hadassah, says he has urged the government to introduce administrative and legal reforms or risk confounding the success of the Suez project. “If there is a chance there, you need to provide the proper enabling environment for it. You cannot have it with the current bureaucracy or the current legislation or with very poor infrastructure connections.” (Read)

INTERNATIONAL

Angola sovereign fund to invest USD 1.6 bn in Africa
Reuters Africa | 10 Dec 2014
Angola’s sovereign wealth fund has set aside USD 1.6 bn to back infrastructure and hotel projects across sub-Saharan Africa. The Fundo Soberano de Angola (FSDEA) said on Wednesday its net value now stands at USD 4.95 bn. The fund said it is investing USD 1.1 bn in an infrastructure fund that will focus on investments in energy, transport and industrial projects in Angola and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. It has also allocated USD 500 mn into a high-end hotel fund for Africa. (Read)

UAE’s Access Power MEA to develop Uganda’s first solar plant; largest independent power project in sub-Saharan Africa
PV Magazine | 10 Dec 2014
Via Dubai-based solar power developer Access Power MEA’s subsidiary Access Uganda Solar Limited, Access will build, own and operate a 10 MW PV plant in Uganda, which once complete will also become the largest independent solar power project in sub-Saharan Africa, excluding South Africa. Access Power MEA won a competitive bidding process to secure the tender, beating six other EPCs to earn the approval of the Ugandan government. (Read)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

In a TV interview, Amer Group Chairman and Founder Mansour Amertold CNBC Arabia that Amer Group estimates the cost of the Porto Dead Sea project to be JOD 700 mn (approximately USD 987.5 mn) with the initial stage of the project costing JOD 40 mn.

Cairo Governorate has allocated EGP 310 mn for the building of new bridgeson top of EGP 240 mn that were set aside for new road projects. (Read in Arabic)

The Gamaa Islamiyya is considering withdrawing from the Ikhwan-backed “National Alliance to Support Legitimacy (NASL),” according to a report in Ahram Masaa’i picked up by Ahram Online.

As a species, we can sometimes be horribly disgusting: “5.25 trillion pieces of plastic, large and small, weighing 269,000 tons, could be found throughout the world’s oceans, even in the most remote reaches.” (Read)

Per CBS: “David Letterman will host his final broadcast of the LATE SHOW on Wednesday, May 20, 2015.” (Read)

Questions about the magazine’s continued editorial relevance aside, the Time person of the year is out, and it is: Ebola fighters.