The IMF has cut its economic growth forecast for Egypt, saying it sees GDP growing 4.0% this year, a 0.4 percentage point trim from its previous forecast in October, according to its updated World Economic Outlook released yesterday (here and here, pdf). That’s in line with forecasts from the Madbouly government, which in November predicted 4.0% growth in a letter of intent (pdf) sent to the IMF to secure its USD 3 bn loan.

Other analysts are a bit more optimistic: A Reuters poll last week predicted growth of 4.8% in the current fiscal year, while the World Bank expects 4.5%, and Fitch has penciled in 4.4%.

We may put the worst behind us at the end of the year: The IMF expects the economy to expand at a 5.3% clip in 2024. The Madbouly government, meanwhile, sees growth clocking in at 5.5-6.0% in the medium term.

Global growth will also bottom out this year: The Fund’s updated 2023 forecast for the global economy is a little less somber than in October thanks to slowing inflation, China’s re-opening, and demand resilience in Europe and the US. The IMF now expects global economic growth to slow to 2.9% this year from 3.4% in 2022, a slight upgrade of 0.2 percentage points.

MENA growth downgraded: MENA GDP will slow to 3.2% in 2023 from 5.4% last year, according to the Fund’s latest forecasts. That’s a downgrade from the 3.6% it was projecting in October.

Half of EMs are already out of the slump: Only around 50% of emerging markets (EMs) and developing economies will see higher growth this year than they did last year. However, overall growth in EMs and developing economies already bottomed out at 3.9% in 2022, the IMF says, and is projected to rise to 3.9% this year and 4.2% in 2024. The downslide that’s expected in global growth this year is driven by a lag in advanced economies.

UH, ENTERPRISE? What’s GDP, anyway? Think of it as an attempt to sum up the total value of everything made inside a country’s borders — all the finished goods and services cranked out in a 12-month period. The good folks at Planet Money (our favorite econ podcast) had a deep dive into GDP, where the concept came from, and how it’s used in their 2022 “Summer School” series. You can listen here on the web or here on Apple Podcasts (runtime: 25:00).