Good morning, friends, and welcome to another busy news day. There’s no rest for the wicked as we look at a flood of M&A and FX news, Fed day in the US of A, and speculation that the Central Bank of Egypt could go for a snap interest rate hike ahead of the IMF’s planned Friday board meeting to review our request for a USD 3 bn facility.

HAPPENING TODAY-

The US-Africa Leaders’ Summit continues in Washington today: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is among the 49 African heads of state in Washington this week for the US-Africa Leaders’ Summit. Ittihadiya confirmed this morning that the president had landed in the US capital, and said that he would be meeting with a number of senior US officials, CEOs and African leaders, though it didn’t name names.

Transport Minister Kamel El Wazir is in the UK to attend meetings of the International Maritime Organization (IMO), the ministry said yesterday.

THIS WEEK-

Will we finally close an IMF facility this week? The IMF’s executive board will discuss Egypt’s request for a new extended fund facility on Friday, 16 December. Egypt and the Fund reached a staff-level agreement for a USD 3 bn, 46-month loan program at the end of October, but the arrangement needs the sign off from the board before the loan can start to be disbursed.

An unscheduled CBE meeting this week? Al Ahly Pharos elaborated on their prediction for this year’s final policy meeting in a note on Monday, writing that the Monetary Policy Committee could devalue the EGP by another 15% to rein in the parallel market and hike interest rates by 200 bps in an unscheduled meeting. BNP Paribas are of the same opinion, predicting the EGP to fall to 33 against the greenback by the end of the year and 37 during the next quarter. The derivatives markets are also pegging the currency significantly below the current market rate, with 12-month non-deliverable forwards changing hands at EGP 30 last week.

MEANWHILE- The IMF agreed yesterday to offer Ghana a USD 3 bn lifeline after reaching a staff-level, the lender said in a statement yesterday. Ghana joins Egypt, Bangladesh, Lebanon, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Zambia in requesting IMF facilities this year.

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PSA- Two days until the e-invoicing deadline: Companies have until Thursday to register with the Tax Authority’s e-invoicing system. Only 150k companies had signed up to the new system ahead of the previous deadline of 15 December, according to the Tax Authority’s most recent tally at the end of November, which is well below a sought goal of 1 mn companies to register under the system.

REMEMBER- This deadline no longer applies to the self-employed: The Finance Ministry pushed the deadline for self-employed professionals — including doctors, pharmacists and lawyers — to 30 April 2023 after widespread opposition to the system.

It’s Fed day: We’ll find out this evening by how much the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates when its final policy meeting wraps. The consensus is that policymakers will begin to ease the pace of the tightening cycle with a 50-bps hike but signal that it will continue to raise rates into 2023. Faced with soaring inflation, the central bank has embarked on its most aggressive series of rate hikes in years, raising rates by 375 bps since March including four consecutive 75-bps hikes.

The market got what it wanted ahead of the big day: Unexpectedly cool inflation data out yesterday gave the Fed more room to start a dovish pivot, further raising market expectations for a smaller hike today. The consumer price index fell to 7.1% in November, below the 7.3% expected by analysts, and down from 7.7% the month before. This is the lowest reading since December 2021, and will give further confidence to those who believe that we’ve passed peak inflation.

Conditions will stay tight in 2023: Inflation may be past its peak but it remains well above target in the US, the EU and the UK, meaning central banks will continue to raise rates into 2023 albeit at a slower pace, the Financial Times writes. “Inflation is decelerating and the pace of rate rises is smaller, but central banks are still going to be hiking by larger amounts than historically,” Silvia Ardagna, chief European economist at Barclays, said.

WORLD CUP- Morocco will play arguably the biggest game in their history tonight when they face off against France in the semi-final of the World Cup. The Atlas Lions have the rest of the Middle East and Africa behind them when they take to the field at 9pm tonight, making history as the first-ever African team to make it to the last four of the competition.

It’s going to be tough: France are the strongest team left in the competition and will be favorites to get their hands on the trophy for the second consecutive tournament. A lethal strike force of Kylian Mbappe, Antoine Griezmann and Olivier Giroud will test Morocco’s battle-hardened defense to the max and their never-say-die attitude means that Morocco can expect a strong response if they find themselves in the lead.

But anything is possible: Morocco has already beaten three teams ranked among the top 10 in the world. They shocked the world by knocking out Spain in the last-16 and Portugal in the quarter-finals, and beating Belgium 2-0 to top their group. Morocco also has the best defensive record in the competition, only conceding once (an own goal vs. Canada) in the five games they’ve played. France aren’t exactly impregnable, either, having conceded in all but one of their games (and losing to Tunisia 1-0).

Whoever wins will meet Messi in the final after Argentina swept Croatia aside in last night’s game. Argentina became the first to reach the final, winning 3-0 against the 2018 runner-ups with two goals from Julian Alvarez and a penalty from Lionel Messi. Messi became Argentina’s all-time top scorer in the tournament, surpassing Gabriel Batistuta’s record with an 11th career World Cup goal.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Sam Bankman-Fried is Sam Bankman-[redacted]: The co-founder and CEO of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX has been accused of committing “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history” by the US Department of Justice, a day after he was arrested by Bahamian police ahead of a possible extradition to the US. SBF has been charged with eight counts including money laundering, conspiracy to commit wire fraud, securities fraud, and campaign financing violations, and if found guilty, faces years behind bars. (Reuters | AP | Bloomberg | FT | WSJ | CNBC)

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In today’s issue: Proposed amendments to a law on building violation reconciliations, which could eventually see the government reach reconciliation agreements on some wildcat buildings, could present a big opening for local real estate developers.