Greetings from Dubai, where if you’re not attending the EFG Hermes One on One, we’ve got you covered this morning.
A poll of nearly 700 institutional investors and top leading companies in MENA and frontier markets tipped Egypt as the market that will “perform best in MENA and frontier markets in 2017 in USD terms.” Participants in the EFG Hermes Consensus poll, which included more than 500 fund managers and institutional investors controlling AUM of more than 10 tn, were voting live in Dubai yesterday morning at the thirteenth EFG Hermes One on One, the largest MENA and frontier-dedicated investor event globally. The One on One continues today and tomorrow.
What other markets are in favor? 46% of respondents tipped Egypt as the best likely performer in MENA and FM this year, followed by the UAE at 16% and Pakistan at 13%. Although emerging markets outperformed MENA markets in 2016, 60% of respondents said they expect MENA to outperform global emerging market this year. Some 32% of respondents think healthcare stocks will perform best this year, followed by banks (27%) and consumer plays (22%).
If you invest or do business in MENA or frontier markets, you’ll want to have a look at the chart-heavy survey results (pdf) and the accompanying note from the EFG Hermes Research team. Questions cover everything from key risk factors to views on oil prices, expectations of key markets, and some inside baseball stuff near and dear to our hearts— including whether passive funds will continue to effectively take AUM from actively managed funds and whether respondents are willing to pay for research as the industry braces for MiFID II.
Also at the One on One yesterday: Investment and International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr and Emaar Properties boss (and prolific MENA and EM investor) Mohamed Alabbar took to the stage to talk about change. We’ll have full coverage of their remarks later this week.
It was a big day for: EFG Hermes… Aside from this year’s gathering being the largest One on One yet, it marked the first conference where non-GCC frontier companies turned out in force. EFG Hermes Group CEO Karim Awad told attendees yesterday that, “Mirroring our geographical expansion ambitions, this year our flagship One on One conference sees a marked increase in market representation with companies from 19 countries spanning the UAE, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Kenya, among many others.” Half of the almost two dozen participating FM companies are from Pakistan, which will be upgraded to MSCI Emerging Market status in May. Pakistani companies attending this week are expected to account for c.44% of the MSCI Pakistan Index when it launches. That comes just ahead of the expected closure of EFG Hermes acquisition of Pakistan’s IFSL.
…marking its transformation into the premier frontier markets finance house, structured along three business lines: The investment bank; a non-bank financing arm that includes leasing and microfinance (and, according to Awad, “soon consumer finance in Egypt); and a “merchant bank that manages our liquid balance sheet to enhance the Group’s future growth and return on equity,” Awad noted.
EFG Hermes also launched small and mid-cap coverage of some of the best stocks which it feels has gone unnoticed for too long, bringing their total coverage to 177 companies in the region.
It was also a big day for: Mohamed Ebeid and Karim Moussa, longstanding friends of Enterprise. EFG Hermes Group Chief Executive Officer Karim Awad noted that both men have been named co-CEOs of the investment bank at EFG Hermes, with Ebeid (the longtime co-head of brokerage) heading up the sell side, including brokerage, investment banking and research. Moussa, until his appointment the head of private equity at EFG, will be Ebeid’s counterpart on the buy side, building a new platform based on the firm’s private equity and asset management divisions. Mohamed El Wakeel, meanwhile, will head all back-office operations as chief operating officer, Awad noted in remarks yesterday, and Ahmed Waly becomes the sole head of brokerage.
Separately, Moussa announced that EFG Hermes’ renewable energy platform Vortex plans to close its GBP 470 mn acquisition of 24 solar parks from TerraForm power in May or June.
Away from Dubai, Trump’s travel ban lite: US President Donald Trump is reissuing his travel ban executive order with “significant concessions” from his prior directive, Politico writes. The new directive exempts existing visa holders from travel limits and removes Iraq from the original list of barred countries. “The new order will put a 90-day hold on issuance of visas to citizens of six countries: Iran, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen. It also stops refugee admissions worldwide for 120 days.” The rollout of this directive could be less chaotic than its predecessor’s as it includes a 10-day delay to allow coordination before the measure kicks in.