PM — Putting the price tag on obesity

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. We’re at the end of the last workday before the start of COP27, with hundreds of attendees currently on their way or set to begin their travels soon to Sharm El Sheikh.

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Activity in Egypt’s non-oil private sector continued to contract in October, albeit at a marginally lower pace than it did in September, according to S&P Global’s purchasing managers’ index (pdf). The PMI index registered 47.7 last month — just 0.1 points higher than September’s reading, but marking the highest reading since February. This is the 23rd consecutive month that index has come in below the 50.0 threshold that separates growth from contraction.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

Leading the conversation in the international business press this afternoon: The Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points today — its highest rate hike in more than three decades — in a bid to tamp down inflation amid a “very challenging” outlook for the UK’s economy. The story is on the front pages of the Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg, and CNBC.

SIGN OF THE TIMES- Netflix with ads launches in 12 countries: Netflix is rolling out its ad-supported service in a dozen countries today including Canada, the UK, and the US in an effort to boost revenues and subscriber growth, the Wall Street Journal reports. The ad-supported plan will cost USD 6.99 in the US, while the premium tier — which is set to offer exclusive programs — will cost US customers USD 19.99. Disney+ is set to follow suit with its own ad rollout next month.

** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

• Is the state readying logistics companies for EGX debuts in 2023? The Madbouly government plans to IPO as many as four state-owned maritime and land transport companies during 1Q 2023 as it looks to reboot its stalled privatization program.
• More renewables projects are being negotiated in Riyadh: The Electricity Ministry is in talks with six Saudi firms for more than USD 3 bn worth of renewable energy projects as Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker visits Riyadh.
• The International Cooperation Ministry will seek blended finance for nine projects worth USD 15 bn in its Nexus on Water, Food and Energy (NWFE) program.

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Fifteen global green startups will pitch at COP27 as part of the government’s ClimaTech competition: The International Cooperation Ministry has selected its 15-strong shortlist from the 422 startups that applied to the ClimaTech Run competition — which is supported by our friends at USAID through their Business Egypt program. The chosen firms will pitch their businesses to a judging panel composed of top UN officials as well as representatives of Afreximbank, Microsoft, and Google during the climate summit’s Youth Day, the ministry said yesterday. The startups present sustainable solutions in sectors including energy, agriculture, food security, transport, and urban development. Together they operate across 46 countries, with eight firms based on the African continent.

A delegation of Italian agricultural firms will visit Egypt in the second week of December to explore potential cooperation with local companies, Italian Ambassador to Cairo Michael Caron told Trade and Industry Minister Ahmed Samir in a meeting, according to a cabinet statement.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Your weekend weather is looking fantastic. Look for a daytime high of 26°C in Cairo on both Friday and Saturday, with an overnight low of 14°C. Folks landing in Sharm can expect a high tomorrow of 29°C, with the mercury dipping to 22°C at night.

Daylight saving time takes a toll on our bodies: Maybe Egypt was right to cancel it altogether because most sleep and circadian experts recommend we stick to standard time, The Washington Post reports. The issue with permanently implementing daylight saving time is how it throws our bodies out of sync with the sun all year long, leading to a number of health concerns, according to sleep specialists. Early-morning sunlight is essential for sustaining our circadian rhythms (the brain’s internal clock), sleep-wake cycles, and overall health.

How circadian rhythms work: Most of our internal clocks — which are responsible for regulating cardiac functions, metabolic processes, hormone fluctuations, and sleep — run longer than 24 hours. The sun intervenes to remedy that, sending our eyes signals to reset our internal clock so it becomes synchronized with a 24-hour day. The sun setting pushes our bodies to produce hormones such as melatonin to encourage sleep.

Daylight saving time unexpectedly disturbs this: The shift cuts into our sleep at both the beginning and the end of the day, and our bodies don’t immediately adjust to this change — the body still wants its old wake and sleep times.

The health risks: This vital one-hour shift is linked to an increase in heart attacks, strokes, and a rise in car accidents. Experts also say the resulting circadian misalignment can impact melatonin production and living out of sync with our internal clocks — increasing the risk of sleep loss, obesity, diabetes, heart disease, mood disorders, and certain types of cancer. Eliminating daylight saving time allows better circadian alignment by gay-sauna-nice.com to adjust naturally and reduces the risk for long-term health issues, experts say.

Uber whistleblower says company business model is unsustainable: Former Uber executive Mark MacGann detailed the company’s efforts to influence policy and push against improved worker rights at Lisbon’s Web Summit yesterday, Reuters reports. McGann reveals he is the man behind the Uber Files — a collection of 124k internal documents leaked to the press. He says Uber was “weaponizing drivers” in its struggles against government regulation around the world and its business model remains “absolutely” unsustainable due to deception regarding the advantages of the gig economy.

Will angry drivers be the downfall of Uber? The ride hailing company continues to emphasize that independent contractors are at the heart of its business model, because everyone wants to be self-employed and have freedom. However, MacGann contradicts this position with evidence that many Uber drivers have filed lawsuits against the company in many countries because they want a “minimum of social protection such as sick pay,” he says.

The Twitter saga continues with mass layoffs this weekend: Elon Musk is reportedly preparing to fire up to half of Twitter's 7.5k employees tomorrow in a mass cost-cutting makeover, sources in the know tell the Financial Times. Following his USD 44 bn acquisition of the social media platform, the b’naire also wants to change Twitter's present remote-working policy to pull staff back into the office starting Monday, the sources said.

???? ON THE TUBE TONIGHT-
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An exhilarating comeback story in The Redeem Team: The Netflix documentary is a fascinating look at the US men's basketball team’s quest to reclaim gold medal glory in 2008 — setting aside their individual egos as the NBA's biggest stars to play for each other and their fans. Here's some context: The 1992 US men's Olympic basketball team was dubbed "The Dream Team," including stars Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson, and other legends. NBA stars began to decline invitations to join the Olympic team and then the unthinkable happened — the US won a bronze medal in 2004. In 2008, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, and Carmelo Anthony stepped up to the plate to bring back the Olympic gold as The Redeem Team. LeBron James offers some comedic relief in the documentary, but the interviews with Kobe Bryant, who tragically died in a helicopter crash in 2020, are the most moving (watch trailer, runtime 1:56).

⚽ The Europa League is back — here are tonight’s highlights:

Arsenal v Zurich (10pm)

Real Sociedad v Manchester United (7:45pm)

Rome v Ludogorets Razgrad (10pm)

Friday: There are only a few matches to check out in the new gameweek of our favorite European leagues. Over in Spain’s La Liga, Girona faces Athletic Bilbao at 10pm while in Italy’s Serie A, Udinese plays Lecce at 9:30pm. Shortly after at 9:45pm, Borussia Mönchengladbach will play against Stuttgart in the German Bundesliga.

Saturday: A new gameweek of the English Premier League kicks off at 5pm with four matches:

Man City v Fulham, Leeds v Bournemouth, Nottingham v Brentford, and Wolves v Brighton. Then Everton faces Leicester City at 7:30pm.

English Premier League fans can join our Fantasy League of over 100 Enterprise readers. Simply follow this link or enter the code 8o4sut.

Barcelona faces Almeria in La Liga at 10pm. Earlier in the day, Getafe plays Cadiz at 3pm, Valladolid kicks off against Elche at 5:15pm, and Celta Vigo takes on Osasuna at 7:30pm.

Saturday's most notable Serie A and Bundesliga matches:

Borussia Dortmund v Bochum (4:30pm)

Hertha Berlin v Bayern Munich (4:30pm)

Atalanta v Napoli (7pm)

Milan v Spezia (9:45pm)

???? EAT THIS TONIGHT-

Tuck into a Syrian feast at Akleh: Zesty lemon, garlic, and fresh herbs pack in the flavor at this delicious spot, with a variety of salads, appetizers, and dishes to choose from. The shawarma, fattah, and crispy chicken are solid choices. Take your pick from a selection of yummy sandwiches, and order them spicy for an extra kick. While red meat lovers will definitely be happy, the halloumi cheese and chicken manakish are personal favorites.

???? OUT AND ABOUT-
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Spice up the night with some hip hop with Guyanese beatboxer Andy Ninvalle and Egyptian artist Novo, playing The Cairo Jazz Festival Beyond Stage at Cairo Jazz Club Agouza at 9pm.

If you’re a fan of 60s and 70s music, catch The Woodpeckers at The Tap East tonight at 9pm.

Jazz fans, don’t miss Cairo Steps tomorrow night at the Marquee Theater in Cairo Festival City. Head there at 9pm to enjoy the diverse group’s fusion of oriental music and rhythmic jazz tunes.

Don’t miss The Wegz Experience at Al Manara Arena at 8pm tomorrow night. The highly immersive event will feature a live performance from the artist with unique theatrical stage design, choreography and light shows.

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Zero investigates lagging climate science in Africa: Bloomberg’s podcast typically delves into the policies, tactics, and clean technologies that will lead us to a zero-emissions future as the world fights climate change. In a recent episode, award winning climate reporter Akshat Rathi brings attention to Africa’s suffering due to climate change — even though it only contributes 2–3% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organization. People and businesses are being harmed by severe droughts and damaging floods and the situation is deteriorating, as the episode reveals, with predictions that four out of five African countries will lack access to sustainably managed water resources by 2030 (listen, runtime 32:44).

???? UNDER THE LAMPLIGHT-

The Secret History is an easy weekend mystery read: Donna Tartt’s murder mystery is narrated by Richard Rapen, an unhappy and desperate student with a vague understanding of the concepts of love, beauty and wisdom. Under the influence of a charming classics professor at college, Richard and a group of clever students discover new perspectives and go beyond the limits of morality. Lives are forever changed when the students discover how challenging circumstances are and how easy it is to kill.

The EGX30 rose 0.2% at today’s close on turnover of EGP 880.5 mn (18.3% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is down 5.8% YTD.

In the green: Telecom Egypt (+4.3%), Egypt Kuwait Holding-EGP (+3.9%) and CIB (+1.2%).

In the red: Juhayna Food Industries (-3.5%), Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (-2.3%) and Cleopatra Hospitals (-1.9%).

Obesity is a growing global problem with a huge price tag: Obesity and being overweight are serious challenges that cost the world tns of USD every year in treatment. Left unchecked, the economic consequences of obesity and being overweight could spiral from an estimated USD 2 tn in 2020 to over USD 3 tn by 2030 and an exorbitant USD 18 tn sum by 2060, according to a World Obesity Federation and RTI report (pdf). For Egypt — listed among the countries expected to be most severely impacted in the coming decades — the economic consequences are already at our doorstep.

The current healthcare costs of obesity in Egypt? Over EGP 60 bn a year. The cost of treating obesity-related health problems in Egypt was estimated at around EGP 62 bn by a Cairo University study published in 2021. Obesity aggravates pre-existing conditions and contributes to the onset of new diseases, making them more difficult and costly to treat. “Obesity is a major contributor to ill-health and health expenditure in Egypt. It is a risk factor of several diseases, of which some are very severe, like heart diseases and stroke,” the report said.

Obesity contributed to a fifth of deaths in 2020: Almost 20% of the total number of deaths in Egypt in 2020 (around 115k) have been linked to obesity, according to the report. Meanwhile, disability adjusted life years — a metric representing the loss of one year of full health — was said to have reached 4 mn in 2020.

The figures have been steadily rising: Between 2006 and 2019 the rate of adult obesity in Egypt rose to 40% from 30%, according to the 2021 study. By 2030, that figure could go up to some 41.6% and is expected to balloon to some 89% by 2060, according to the World Obesity Federation report (pdf).

Women are way more at risk: Currently some 50% of women in Egypt are considered obese, while among men, the obesity rate is estimated to be at some 30%. By 2030, the same variance will hold true as some 51.7% of women are expected to be considered obese compared to some 31.41% of men. The variation in these figures is likely due to cultural forces that have traditionally meant that “females in Egypt are less likely to be involved in physical activities compared to males,” the authors of the study argue.

And an uptick in obesity figures in 2020 has been linked to the pandemic: One study has argued that weight gain around the world in 2020 was partially attributable to lockdowns which caused a spike in stress-eating, higher rates of junk food consumption, less exercise, as well as an increase in anxiety which is linked to worse sleep — and less effective metabolic functioning.

A lack of access to healthier alternatives: Nutrient-deficient foods and difficulty accessing healthier alternatives compound the problem in Egypt, with some 45.4% of the Egyptian population unable to afford a nutrient-adequate diet and a whopping 84.8% unable to afford a healthy diet. Most Egyptian diets are high-calorie and contain nutrient-deficient foods, and it can serve as a driving force for obesity in the country.

The less obvious factors at play: A person’s genetic makeup and the abundance of chemicals in our natural environment — which disrupt normal metabolic processes — are also at fault. “The economic costs of overweight and obesity are not attributable to individual behavior but are a consequence of the social and commercial priorities that shape the ‘obesogenic’ environment now affecting every country in the world,” the World Obesity Federation report says.

There are big savings if we zero in on obesity: Scaling back the increased presence of obesity and overweight by 5% below projected levels could save some USD 430 bn worldwide every year between 2020-2060, the report says. Putting a halt to the rise of obesity outright would trigger annual savings of about USD 2.2 tn every year until 2060.

The policy suggestions are fairly straightforward: Placing restrictions on the marketing of food and drinks to children, taxing sugary beverages, requiring better nutritional labeling, and increased access to safe spaces for physical activity are some of the tools outlined in the report to help curb growing obesity rates. A bolder and perhaps more costly approach would be to integrate obesity treatment into universal health coverage around the world.