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Sunday, 26 February 2017

CBE Governor Tarek Amer downplays negative impact of EGP float, touches on key indicators in televised interview

Central Bank of Egypt Governor Tarek Amer sat down for a televised interview with DMC’s Osama Kamal on Friday in which he downplayed the impact of the float of the EGP and denied the central bank had subtly intervened in the market to support the national currency (watch the full interview, runtime 1:16:36).

Amer said he expects foreign debt to reach USD 60 bn, or about 30% of GDP, by June and projected the current account deficit will ease 50% to USD 10 bn this year, down from last year’s USD 18.7 bn. Imports are down 20% so far this year. He also said that Egypt has managed to repay USD 3 bn in international obligations in the past three months and suggested the backlog of importers and investors (we presume he means public market investors) waiting for USD allocations has been cleared. The CBE and Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation are coordinating to repay USD 1.5 bn in arrears owed to international oil companies this year.

Some USD 13.5 bn has flowed into local banks since the float of the EGP on 3 November, the governor said, supporting the ability of foreign companies to repatriate profits, Amer said.

Amer emphasized that he wished he could have floated the EGP earlier and said the negative impact of the move is not as bad as originally anticipated. The impact of the float will be transient, he said, stressing that what matters is not the exchange rate, but political and economic stability.

Amer denied speculation from some, including Renaissance Capital chief economist Charles Robertson, that the central bank had intervened to support the currency in a bid to curb inflation, helping the EGP rally against foreign currencies in the past week or so. The CBE cannot intervene in the market, he said — and doesn’t need to, as Egypt is on a “clear path to reform.”

Expect continued volatility in the exchange rate, Amer said, (correctly) declining to specify when pressed what he sees as the fair value for the EGP as being.

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