Good morning, friends, and welcome to an absolutely packed Sunday issue. There are a number of new worries on our radar, but we’re not hitting the “Alaaaarm” button just yet in a re-enactment of Das Boot. To help you put things in context:

UH, SHOULD WE WORRY? #1- The past 24 hours has seen monkeypox push covid-19 off the front pages after the World Health Organization (WHO) announced what it called the “highly unusual” spread of the virus to countries in which it is rarely (if ever) found. The health body says 92 cases have so far been found in 12 countries, including the US, Canada and nine European countries. Some 50 other suspected cases of the rare viral infection, which can spread from animals to humans and between people, are being investigated, and “more cases are likely to be reported,” it said.

Egypt is (so far) in the clear: Egypt has not reported any infections of the disease, which is most common in remote areas in Central and West Africa, the Health Ministry said yesterday.

How worried should you be? You shouldn’t be quaking in your boots just yet, but you should be keeping an eye on it. Good news: There’s a vaccine. The smallpox vaccine is c. 85% effective against monkeypox. The bad news: Smallpox died out in the 1970s thanks to a concerted global vaccination drive, so anybody younger than about 50 has never been jabbed. The fatality rate is probably about 1% in poor populations in West Africa. Ed Yong won the Pulitzer for his work on covid-19 — go read his So, have you heard about monkeypox for a very balanced dive into what we do and don’t know.

UH, SHOULD WE WORRY? #2- US stocks are teetering on the edge of a bear market: The S&P 500 narrowly avoided entering a bear market thanks to last-minute gains during another volatile trading session on Friday. The index was down more than 2% in the afternoon, putting it down more than 20% from its all-time high in January, before a rally led it to close marginally in the green.

The Dow Jones is now on its longest losing streak since 1932 after ending last week lower for the eighth consecutive week. The S&P and the Nasdaq have now racked up seven straight weeks of losses — their longest run since 2001. Increasing concerns about an oncoming recession amid surging inflation and the biggest global tightening cycle in decades have wiped out USD 12 tn in value from US stocks since a recent peak in March as investors flee risk assets. (Bloomberg | WSJ)

A new phase? The sharp sell-off in retail shares and the bond rally on Wednesday has Mohamed El Erian worried that investors are becoming more pessimistic about earnings and economic growth. “Should these worries prove valid — and I suspect they will, given my expectations of a stagflationary baseline — stock prices remain vulnerable,” he writes for Bloomberg.

There is also a growing risk of a market malfunction, an event that would spillover into other areas of the financial markets and the real economy, El Erian writes. “While the hope is that this week’s market action is a continuation of a sell-off that is coming to its end, there is a real risk that it may be more than that — a new phase that threatens both more price losses and a higher possibility of market-functioning stress.”

When will it end? Morgan Stanley’s bearish analyst Michael Hartnett noted that, of the 19 US bear markets in the past 140 years, the S&P fell by an average of 37.3% over 9.5 months. This would put the index at 3,000 by the end of October if repeated. “3,600 is the new bull case,” he wrote in a note, which would put it down another 7.7% from its current level.

UH, SHOULD WE WORRY? #3- Remember how we told you folks were starting to freak out on Planet Startup USA? Well, the alarm bells are ringing rather loudly now after Y Combinator sent out a note to founders suggesting they get into nuclear-winter survival mode.

WHAT’S HAPPENING TODAY-

Davos 2022 starts today: The World Economic Forum (WEF) will kick off its first in-person annual meeting in more than two years today, bringing the world’s captains of industry, policy and media back to the alpine village in Switzerland. Expect plenty of talk about Ukraine (sans the you-know-whos), climate, food security, and the growing uncertainty over the global economy. “History at a turning point” indeed.

On Day #1: The first day of the event will see attendees chew over the global food crisis, the impact on the global economy of sanctions on Russia, and climate tech, as well as the future of globalization, national digital currencies and the effects of social media on societies. It will also see a special address from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

WEF runs through Thursday and you can check out the day-by-day agenda here, if you’re so inclined.

IN THE HOUSE TODAY- MPs will discuss today a committee report on proposed amendments to the Anti-Money Laundering Law. The changes would create an anti-money laundering unit at the central bank, handing it greater powers to prevent money laundering and terrorist financing. A new bill to organize Hajj trips will also be discussed by the House today.

We have two all-Egyptian finals tonight at the CIB-sponsored PSA squash championships: World #1 Nouran Gohar faces world #2 Nour El Sherbini for the women’s championship title while the men’s final match will see second seed Ali Farag play world #3 Mohamed El Shorbagy. The finals get underway this evening. The PSA has a good scene-setter here.

What’s at stake: The championship, which has been taking place at SODIC’s Club S Allegria and at the National Museum of Egyptian Civilization, has a record USD 550k in total player compensation for each of the women’s and men’s titles.

We don’t have long to wait before Egypt’s next squash tournament kicks off: The CIB-sponsored El Gouna International Squash Open 2022 starts this Friday and runs through to 3 June.

WATCH THIS SPACE- Changes at the Industrial Development Authority (IDA) designed to make life easier for investors are on the Trade and Industry Ministry’s to-do list, Minister Nevine Gamea said last week. The authority will work to simplify its procedures, aiming to attract more foreign investment into the industrial sector by making it easier for investors to acquire land and obtain licenses, among other things.

FROM THE DUMPSTER FIRE THAT IS OUR SOCIAL MEDIA-

• “I’ll be watching you”: We got a lot of enjoyment this morning from alternative search engine DuckDuckGo’s latest ad campaign. The ad takes a swipe at Google over privacy concerns, as a distinctly creepy dude in a Google shirt leans over people’s shoulders as they browse the web to the tune of The Police’s “Every Breath You Take.”
• The Freudian slip to end all Freudian slips, courtesy of Dubya.
• The “Solar Hedgehog”: Europe’s Solar Orbiter spacecraft just released its closest-ever image of the sun.

COVID WATCH-

Egypt saw an average of five new covid infections per day last week, the same reported cases a week earlier, according to Health Ministry data released yesterday. Egypt also saw daily average fatalities fall to two, down from three the week before. Almost 34.9 mn people are now fully vaccinated, and 3.1 mn have received their booster shots, according to the ministry.

OBITUARY-

Veteran actor Samir Sabry passed away at the age of 85 over the weekend following a battle with illness, the Actor’s Syndicate announced on Friday. Sabry starred in over 150 films and TV series and was best known for his roles in films including A Girl Among Girls (Bint Min el Banat) and Have Pity on Your Parents (Wa Belwaleden Ehsana). His last appearance was in the 2020 TV series Valentino.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Registration for this year’s Hajj through tourism companies closes tomorrow (Monday, 23 May) after the Tourism Ministry pushed the deadline from last Friday.

The Islamic Development Bank will hold its 2022 annual meetings in Sharm El Sheikh from 1-4 June under the slogan “post-pandemic recovery: resilience and sustainability,” according to a statement from the Planning Ministry. Several Egyptian ministries and representatives from the bank’s 57 member countries and other financial institutions are set to attend the meetings.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

*** It’s What’s Next day: We have our weekly deep-dive into what makes and shapes pre-listed companies and startups in Egypt, the UAE and KSA, touching on investment trends, future sector insights and growth journeys.

In today’s issue: Do you feel your business needs an AI function? How would you get that started? In another of our virtual podcast roundtables, we sat down with the companies building AI systems in Egypt to get a bird’s eye view on what’s happening in the sector: Who’s adopting it, how they’re going about it, and what challenges they’re facing.