Good morning, wonderful people. We’ve made it through another week together — and it has been a doozy. (Does anybody use that word anymore? “Doozy”? It has nothing to do with the Duesenberg Motor Company — long defunct — and the folks who run the dictionary suggest it’s actually a corruption of “daisy” from the late 1800s, which at the time was slang for something or someone considered “the best.”)

THE BIG STORY THIS MORNING remains the war in Ukraine, a file on which Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly led by example yesterday. At a presser yesterday, the PM bluntly noted that (a) Egypt is uniquely squeezed between the two combatants and (b) that the fallout for our country is very real. Madbouly’s meeting with the press comes after Mohamed Maait (finance), Tarek El Molla (oil) and Ali El Moselhy (supply) spent much of the past two weeks delivering very much the same messages. As we noted early this week, cabinet has really stepped up to manage — and communicate to the public — the impact on Egypt of this conflict, which has thrown already tricky global commodity markets into disarray and seen speculation among the Grand Wizards of High Finance that Egypt may consider opening talks with the IMF on a facility to help us through if markets don’t stabilize soon.

Also yesterday: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi spoke with Russian leader Vladimir Putin and called for a diplomatic solution to the conflict. We have chapter and verse on the latest developments from Ukraine and Russia in this morning’s news well, below.

MEANWHILE- Inflation figures for February will be released today: Annual urban inflation hit its highest level in almost two and a half years in January due to rising food prices and an unfavorable base effect.

PSA- Brace yourself for sweater weather this weekend. The Egyptian Meteorological Authority is predicting a slight drop in temperature starting today through Saturday, with daytime highs of 19°C and overnight lows of 8°C across the capital and Alexandria. There’s also a slight chance of light to medium rainfall in Cairo and the northern coasts.

WHAT’S ALSO HAPPENING TODAY-

US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman will be in town for two days starting today. Sherman will meet with Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and “other senior officials,” including National Council for Human Rights chief Moushira Khattab.

Our fellow coffee nerds may wish to attend the three-day 2022 National Barista Championship, which gets underway today at the Egypt International Exhibition Center. Hit up IG for more.

Petchem complex tender goes live this month: Anchorage Investments will launch the tender to choose the main contractor for its USD 2 bn petrochemical complex in the Suez Canal Economic Zone in mid-March, the company announced in a press release. The Anchor Benitoite Project will produce a range of petrochemical products and natural gas derivatives, and is set to be completed within 36 months after funding is secured.

MARKET WATCH-

Stocks surge, oil crashes on Ukraine hopes: US and European stocks had their best day since 2020 on hopes of a diplomatic solution to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Following two weeks of almost constant losses, Germany’s DAX surged 7.9%, while the S&P 500 recovered from Monday’s hefty sell-off, finishing 2.6% in the green. The rally came as a partial ceasefire was implemented in some areas of the country and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy signaled a potential compromise with Russia to end the conflict.

We think traders might have been reading a bit too much into it though, for reasons we explain in this morning’s War Watch, below.

The rollercoaster in the global energy markets didn’t stop as oil endured its worst day for two years: Following a historic spike at the start of the week, Brent and US crude tanked yesterday on hopes that oil producers would soon act to fix the escalating supply problem. WTI plunged 15% to USD 105 and Brent fell 12% to USD 112 a barrel after the UAE’s US ambassador suggested that the country would push OPEC+ to increase supply.

But wait: The UAE’s energy minister said later that the country remains committed to the current framework, which sees the cartel increasing production by 400k barrels a day every month.

Prices still remain elevated, with Brent still up some 15% since the beginning of the war.

US wheat futures fell back yesterday after a government report (pdf) forecast global stockpiles to rise, despite the war, Bloomberg reports. Chicago wheat fell by 6.6% during trading after the Department of Agriculture said larger production in Australia would boost stocks this year. The benchmark contract remains up 50% year-to-date due to supply fears caused by the conflict.

Asia is picking up where Wall Street left off, with most indexes in the region seeing strong gains this morning. Europe and the US look to follow suit later today, according to the futures markets. Oil is continuing to dip, and was down c. 1.7% just before dispatch.

CORRECTION- We incorrectly said in the TL;DR section of yesterday’s EnterpriseAM that First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) were considering a potential merger. The story body of the story correctly noted the potential merger between FAB and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB). We apologize for the typo — the entry has been updated on our web edition.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Contemporary art and culture center Darb1718 is hosting its 3031 Art Festival until this Saturday, 12 March on its premises in Fustat, Old Cairo.

Green energy forum: The German Arab Chamber of Industry and Commerce is hosting the Egyptian German Green Energy Forum on Tuesday, 22 March. Planning Minister Hala El Said, Vice Minister of Finance Ahmed Kouchouk and German Ambassador Frank Hartmann are among those slated to attend. The event runs 5:30-9pm CLT at the InterContinental Cairo Semiramis.

Interest rates: The Central Bank of Egypt will hold its next monetary policy meeting on Thursday, 24 March.

(Much) further afield: Egypt will host the World Urban Forum in 2024 in cooperation with UN Habitat. Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly yesterday met with the regional director of the UN Habitat, Erfan Ali, to discuss preparations for the event, the two sides announced (here and here). The forum aims to discuss rapid urbanization and its impact on communities, cities, economies, climate change and policies. This year’s edition will be held in Poland this June.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.