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Thursday, 20 October 2016

No full float says Ismail at meeting with intellectuals

There will be no full float of the EGP, but there will be a more flexible exchange rate, said Prime Minister Sherif Ismail at a meeting with writers and journalists yesterday, according to columnist Abdullah El Sennawy, who was in attendance. Ismail reiterated that devaluation was the Central Bank’s call — and said the current parallel market price does not reflect the true value of the EGP. This the second time in as many days that the PM has hinted at devaluation. Ismail has, generally speaking, been largely content until now to let his ministers carry the water on devaluation and economic reform, making his comments in the past two days all the more significant, in our view.

Talks with the IMF are wrapping up and the government is merely working on the fine-print, Ismail told reporters from MBC Masr in comments that aired on the political talk show Yahduth Fi Masr (runtime: 49:24; Ismail’s comments only appear during the first six minutes of the episode).

Ismail also telegraphed yesterday that the government is building stocks of strategic staples ahead of devaluation: The CBE has allocated USD 1.8 bn for the buildup up of a six-month reserve of strategic supplies, the PM said. Supply Minister Mohamed Ali El Sheikh later jumped on the topic, confirming the size of the buy to Reuters and saying the drive is being coordinated with the Armed Forces. The government also tried to reassure the public the ongoing shortage of sugar will end in the coming two weeks: The state plans to flood the market, said Assistant Supply Minister Ahmed Kamal (watch, runtime: 8:34).

Cabinet is debating how to replace the current commodity subsidy system with a direct cash payout to qualified beneficiaries, Ismail said at the meeting, according to AMAY. The move would be implemented gradually, he added. Industry is backing the move: Mohamed Saad El Din, head of the LPG Investors Association said that the move would kill inefficiency and leakage from the fuel subsidy system. Supply handouts inevitably create a parallel market, he said, and too often benefit those who have no need of the subsidy in the first place, Al Mal reports. Supply Minister Mohamed Ali El Sheikh also jumped on board the subsidies efficiency train, saying that the ministry was focused on weeding out those who are not in need of them. He did announce, however, that the ministry plans to increase subsidies in the supply smart card system from a current EGP 18 per month.

House to probe subsidies: The House of Representatives is planning to hold to seven sessions to debate subsidy reform, Al Shorouk reports.

Finally: The government is considering listing the notorious “private funds” in the official budget, according to Al-Mal. The funds — which are not part of the budget and which were formed with the intention of weaning some government bodies off the Finance Ministry — have gained the reputation for being slush funds and havens for corruption.

As our temporary (?) resurrection of Last Night’s Talk Shows this week suggests, the Ismail cabinet and other officials have launched a media blitz in the past week to start getting the public on board with reforms— and to show the IMF we’re moving in the right direction.

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