Thursday, 10 December 2015

Amer met top bank chiefs, easing deposit caps wasn’t on the agenda

TL;DR

Amer meets top bank chiefs, easing deposit caps wasn’t on the agenda (Speed Round)

Bloomberg sees signs everywhere of impending devaluation (Speed Round)

EGAS has cut supplies to heavy industry by 15% (Speed Round)

Israel’s opening gambit on Israel Electric and gas export deal: We’re not waiving the USD 1.8 bn arbitration award (Speed Round)

Egypt ranks as the 17th most popular EM destination for renewable energy FDI in the the past decade (Speed Round)

Time Magazine’s Person of the Year is Angela Merkel, “Chancellor of the World” (Speed Round)

The Central Bank of Egypt is doing the economy a monstrous disservice — and it has nothing to do with the USD exchange rate.  (Contrarian View)

Egyptian National Railways awards Russia an order for 700 air-conditioned carriages (Real Estate + Housing)

Huawei in talks on smartphone assembly plant in Suez Canal Area (Telecom + ICT)

By the Numbers + CBE looks to persuade bank chiefs to support de-dollarization, take a hit on NIMs

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The RiseUp Entrepreneurship and Innovation Summit 2015 kicks off on Saturday and runs through Sunday night at the Greek Campus. Register online hereplease keep in mind that tickets are only available beforehand and cannot be purchased at the door. We hope to see you all there.

Look for oil to continue driving global markets today, suggests CNBC.

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ON THE HORIZON

Next week’s news agenda looks busy. Among the highlights:

  • Sunday: The Ismail government will reportedly resume talks for a new aid package from the Gulf countries. Also: Cairo ICT 2015 kicks off.
  • Monday: Runoffs for 13 seats in four electoral districts will take place, including two in Beni Suef and one each in Beheira and Alexandria.
  • Tuesday: The U.S. Federal Reserve Bank begins a two-day meeting at which it’s widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time since June 2006;
  • Thursday: The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates;
  • Saturday: Egypt will ink a USD 1.5 bn loan agreement with the World Bank.

And get ready for a possible last-minute shift in your vacation schedule: It seems likely we’ll be celebrating the Prophet’s Birthday not on Thursday, 24 December as previously reported, but on Wednesday, 23 December, Ahram Online reports. Alternatively, do what we’re doing: Work Wednesday, take Thursday off anyway.

CONTRARIAN VIEW

The Central Bank of Egypt is doing the economy a monstrous disservice — and it has nothing to do with the USD exchange rate.

While media attention around the CBE is focused on its management of monetary policy, the CBE is quietly humming along in its role as regulator of Egypt’s banking sector — a sector that has a 10% penetration rate (defined as percentage of population with access to financial / money accounts). Egypt’s 10% banking penetration rate compares to rates of 70% in East Asia and 34% in Sub-Saharan Africa. Yes, Sub-Saharan Africa: The poorest region in the world has a banking penetration rate more than three times Egypt’s. Tap here to read the full op-ed.

About the author: An economist and a private equity professional, Hassan Massoud is a partner at elmenus.com.

Editor’s note: This section of Enterprise gives space to contrarian views on contemporary issues — or pieces that bring to light topics that aren’t on the community’s mind, but should be. As usual: Views expressed are those of the author, not necessarily of Enterprise. RT ≠ endorsement. Et cetera, etc, ad nauseam… If you have an idea for an op-ed, drop us a pitch (or a draft submission of no more than 700 words) at patrick@enterprisemea.com. Our editorial staff will work with you to refine any piece we choose to run with.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Everything wrong with tourism in Egypt, by Ibrahim Eissa: Ibrahim Eissa took the opportunity of the relatively sleepy news climate to dissect some of the structural problems with tourism in Egypt. He prefaced his discussion by saying that the current dearth of tourism gives us as a nation the chance to think through major recurring problems in the industry that keep it from achieving its full potential.

Eissa began one of his segments on tourism by declaring outright that Egyptians simply do not have a temperament that allows their home country double as a tourist destination. As outlined in his top ten segment, where he reviewed all of the bizarre behavior Egyptians trot out when dealing with tourists — including but not limited to a two-tiered pricing system for nearly everything, taking selfies with tourists, to gawking at them and following them around — while at the same time, the authorities are so paranoid about Shiites that we undercut a potentially significant stream of tourism.

Next, he briefly touched on security concerns, saying tourists are not coming back until the details of the investigation into the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268 are disclosed to the public. Further, tourism still won’t recover until airport security is consistently and visibly improved. Eissa suggested a foreign firm be hired on a temporary basis to revamp security and oversee staff training. He also warned against a cyclical reality of airport security in Egypt that many of our readers are already aware: An inspection or reprimand may lead to a temporary tightening of security, before staff return to their lax ways and “start eating cheese next to the scanners,” as he put it.

Eissa also pointed to what he referred to as the untapped treasure trove of religious tourism, saying that tourism minister Hisham Zaazou had begun preliminary work on organizing and promoting religious tourism, specifically tours of the Holy Family’s route in Egypt, with little coming of it to-date. He also pointed to the numerous tombs of companions of the Prophet, decrying Egypt’s security rationale for keeping Iranians out of Egypt and the paranoia of the spread of Shiism in the country.

Eissa cited a figure saying that nearly 2 mn Iranian tourists visit Turkey each year (a number that, as far as we can tell, is more or less accurate, at the very least for 2010 and 2011, though this number fell by 41% in the first five months of 2012. For more detailed statistics on Turkey’s tourism industry, their ministry has monthly data with a complete breakdown by nationality from January 2014-October 2015 here]). “Turkey is Sunni, like us. Why aren’t they afraid of the influence of Shiites?”

The larger point Eissa was making about Egypt’s missed opportunity with Iranian tourism is that the country, under the influence of what he said was Wahhabism, takes a very paranoid stance toward Iran and Shiites at the behest of Saudi Arabia and the Gulf, when Saudi and other GCC states actually share much closer and stronger ties than Egypt does with Iran. Examples he included were the UAE’s strong business ties to Iran and Saudi having an embassy in Iran while Egypt does not. He noted that this was another initiative that Zaazou wanted to pursue but was never carried out. Eissa acknowledged that the risk perceived by the authorities is that Shiites will start converting Sunnis to their denomination, which they believe will allow Iran to get its foot in the door in Egypt with regard to recruiting spies and other security concerns. Eissa mocked this view, saying:

“11% of Saudi is Shiite. Why didn’t they manage to Shiia-ize the rest of the population?” (Pew puts it at between 10% – 15%.)

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SPEED ROUND

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Central Bank of Egypt governor Tarek Amer is calling on bankers to take a larger role in boosting FX reserves by marshalling their “domestic and foreign resources,” including reaching out to their correspondent banks, the domestic press reports. That comes after Amer hosted a sit-down with the nation’s top bankers to discuss the FX crisis. Amer’s statement echoes the new guidelines for foreign exchange auctions, which replaced the quota system with one that rewards a bank’s ability to make FX available to clients. Not on the agenda: Lifting USD deposits limits, according to Al Mal. The meeting also delved into the new SME guidelines which were issued on Tuesday. Amer also urged the banking chiefs to get their governance standards up to Basel III standards, Al Borsa reports.

Bloomberg sees signs of an EGP devaluation everywhere: The latest sign that a devaluation of the national currency is in the offing is the military and police distributing discounted meals for less than USD 1, Bloomberg’s Ahmed Namatalla and Ahmed Feteha posit. “Food is the biggest contributor to Egypt’s consumer-price index. Outlets run by the army, police and the government are being set up on street corners in major cities across Egypt. They’re selling everything from snacks to beef and chicken to both individuals and stores, with meals at prices comparable to about a decade ago.” They say that this is to prepare against an inflationary shock if the EGP is devalued. Namatalla and Feteha also see preludes a loosening of capital controls after banks raised rates on deposits and the CBE paid USD 500 mn due to foreign investors. The devaluation they see happening is different from the small-scale ones that were implemented over the past five years, suggesting that the market is anticipating “a shift to a freely floated rate or at least a less rigid peg, as well as the dismantling of capital controls implemented since 2011.” Taken separately, “these measures may not mean much, but collectively, when you look at the broader picture, it’s quite clear that they’re moving in the direction of a devaluation,” said Emirates NBD economist Jean-Paul Pigat.

EGAS has informed clients in energy-intensive industries that it’s cutting their supplies of natural gas by 15%. The state-owned gas company reportedly told its clients about the move a week ago, just about a month after it declared that it had fully met industry demand. The move was prompted by a shortage in supply, according to an EGAS source speaking to Al Borsa, adding that full supplies will be restored to companies once the pressure on the national grid is alleviated some time next week. Sources at fertilizer manufacturer AlexFert, a subsidiary of EK Holdings, have stated that they have begun drawing down energy consumption to meet this cut.

Drawing a line in the sand: Israel will not forgo the USD 1.8 bn awarded in compensation to the Israel Electric Corp (IEC) for Egypt halting natural gas supplies, Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz said. Not showing all of his cards, Steinitz says “we will sit with the Egyptians, and there will be a dialogue, and we will think together how to move forward … Exporting Israeli gas to regional countries like Egypt, Turkey, Greece, Jordan, the Palestinian Authority has a diplomatic value.” If talks with Egypt collapse, Steinitz says there are other alternatives, including selling the gas to regional countries, as well as to Western Europe.

BP acquires additional interest in the West Nile Delta project: BP Egypt completed its acquisition of 22.75% of the North Alexandria Concession and 2.75% in the West Mediterranean Deep Water Concession from DEA Deutsche Erdoel AG, according to a statement from BP on Wednesday. The acquisition will bring BP’s working interest in both concessions of the West Nile Delta project to 82.75%. The West Nile Delta project agreement involves the development of 5 tn cubic feet of gas resources and 55 mn barrels of condensates. Production from WND is expected to be around 1.2 bn bcf per day, equivalent to about 25% of Egypt’s current gas production. All the produced gas will be fed into the country’s national gas grid, with production scheduled to begin in 2017.

The battle over who’s in charge of selling state land isn’t over yet: The Ismail government is reportedly mulling amendments to the Investment Law that would see the Investment Ministry’s role in land tenders minimized, said Local Development Minister Ahmed Zaki Badr. The amendments under consideration include forming committees made up of local government officials and “other relevant government bodies,” he added. This follows months of tension between the Housing Ministry and the Investment Ministry over what Housing said was Investment’s inability to issue land tenders fast enough to keep up with market demand. The Tourism Ministry have weighed in in favor of the Housing Ministry’s stance to allow other bodies to issue land tenders. Meanwhile, Trade and Industry Ministry announced that it is drafting a law allowing the Industrial Development Authority to issue land tenders for projects, Al Mal reports. Under the current incarnation of the Investment Law, only GAFI is tasked with issuing land tenders.

Egypt ranks as the 17th most popular emerging-market destination for foreign direct investment in renewable energy over the past decade, according to numbers crunched by the Financial Times (paywall). Egypt recorded capex of USD 4.9 bn on nine solar and wind projects, compared with USD 28.7 bn on 91 projects in top-ranked Chile. Romania was second (USD 25.4 bn invested in 91 projects), followed by Brazil (USD 20.5 bn and 76 projects). Egypt ranked just ahead of Morocco (USD 4.3 bn and nine projects) and behind Serbia (which netted USD 5.6 bn in 42 projects). The FT says 2015 is a “peak year for capital investment in renewable energy in developing countries,” saying total FDI in the sector in global EM rose 42.8% to USD 46.7 bn. U.S. and Spanish companies are the most active investors in EM renewable energy projects, followed by German, Italian and French investors.

Egypt’s GDP will grow less than 5% in 1Q FY2015-16 , Planning Minister Ashraf El Araby said. El Araby is also expecting the government will be able to push the budget deficit below 10% within the next two fiscal years.

SODIC signs partnership agreement with Heliopolis Housing, will develop 655 feddans: SODIC announced it signed a partnership agreement with the Heliopolis Company for Housing and Development to develop 655 feddans of land. According to a bourse statement, Heliopolis Housing awarded the land to SODIC for a commercial and residential development. As per the agreement, 70% of the proceeds of the residential section and 69.8% of the commercial section of the project will go to SODIC with the rest going to Heliopolis Housing. SODIC had bid for the land in September. (Read in Arabic)

The Ismail cabinet held its weekly meeting yesterday with an agenda focused on upgrading traffic systems and on drafting a “social healthcare” law. The cabinet voted to set up a working group made up of the Health, Education, Social Solidarity, Manpower, and Legal Affairs Ministers to analyze and report on implementing the law, which aims to improve access to quality healthcare by all members of society. Stripped of bureaucratese: The law looks to institute universal healthcare of a reasonable standard by 2030. Other important decisions taken include:

  • Approving a presidential directive reorganizing how industries of importance to the government are to be licensed. Under the directive, fees for licenses are to be standardized for industrial projects; licenses must be offered to all applicants who meet technical and financial specifications; and the government will hold an auction to prioritize issuing licenses in the event of increased demand;
  • Approving amendments made by the President to the Military Pensions and Benefits law that restricts beneficiaries of military officer’s pensions to surviving spouses, children, parents and siblings;
  • Granting the Interior Ministry 103 feddans of public land to build a prison in Giza;
  • Approving topping a U.S. grant focusing on trade and investment assistance to USD 70 mn (up from USD 40 mn) and approving the acceptance of a series of development grants from USAID, including: an increase in a grant for science and technology to USD 12 mn, up from USD 8 mn; topping-up a grant focused on rural and agricultural development to USD 49 mn, up from USD 24 mn; and an increase in a grant focused on judicial institutional development to USD 115 mn, up from USD 107 mn;
  • Allowing the Public Youth and Sports Sponsorship Fund to form companies or become shareholders in companies;
  • Reducing the number of board seats of the Educational Buildings Authority to 15;
  • Allocating EGP 203 mn—EGP 185 mn sourced from World Bank and other foreign loan—to fund four additional projects to the Housing Ministry’s 14 water infrastructure projects in Sharqiya, Menoufiya, Assiut and Sohag;
  • Tapping Arab Contractors to handle the EGP 14 mn construction works at the Education and Technology Center in Fayoum;
  • Extending the program to sell homes to expatriate Egyptians (the so-called “Beit El Watan” program) to 24 December.

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail officially appointed Magdy Abdel Aziz as head of the Customs Authority on Wednesday for a one-year term, AMAY reports. Abdel Aziz had been tapped by Finance Minister Hany Dimian to temporarily head the Customs Authority, a position vacated by Mohamed Al Salahawy.

A U.S. diplomat was reportedly denied entry to Egypt yesterday after immigration officials at Cairo International Airport found he had not obtained an appropriate entry visa in his diplomatic passport prior to arrival, Aswat Masriya reports, saying the dip is a staffer from the mission in Côte d’Ivoire. Visa on arrival service is not extended to U.S. diplomats.

Non-U.S. citizens cannot pursue claims against the Arab Bank for providing support to militant groups behind attacks in Israel and Palestine, a U.S. Appeals court decided, as reported by Reuters. In 2013, Arab Bank was found liable for providing material support for Hamas in a trial pursued by U.S. citizens, JPost notes. Arab Bank said the most recent ruling affected claims by more than 6,000 plaintiffs who had accused it of “financing terrorism by providing services to Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, the Al-Aksa Martyrs’ Brigades and others behind attacks in Israel, the West Bank, and the Gaza Strip from 1995 to 2005.” Arab Bank was the first bank to be found liable in the U.S. for violating the US Anti-Terrorism Act.


We can’t remember who first tweeted it, but Trump is messing with the most dangerous Muslims of all: Gulfie shoppers. UAE’s Landmark Group announced it is pulling Trump products off its shelves in response to comments made by Donald Trump calling for a ban on Muslims entering the United States, a proposal he defended by comparing it to the internment of Japanese-Americans in the United States following the attack on Pearl Harbor. Reuters notes that “Landmark and DT Home Marks International LLC have an exclusive deal to sell Trump Home products — including lighting, mirrors, and jewelry boxes — in their Lifestyle department stores in Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.”

Khalaf Habtoor, the high-profile chief of UAE conglomerate Habtoor Group generally positioned locally as a ‘self-made man,’ is also distancing himself from Trump. According to CNBC, Habtoor told NBC News yesterday: “I wrote an article supporting him. I said we are fed up with the politicians, they have destroyed the Middle East… I wrote we need a successful businessman like Mr. Trump. … I had to admit I made a mistake in my supporting Mr. Trump. He is creating a hatred between Muslims and the United States of America.”

The news comes one day after Trump denied he was planning on visiting Jordan at some point during his planned visit to Israel at the end of the month. Trump denied the visit to Jordan in a tweet, saying the AP published a false report, in which the newswire quoted an unnamed source at the US State Department regarding his alleged plan to visit the Hashemite Kingdom.

Israeli news site YNet says Trump is still set to meet with Netanyahu, despite Arab members of the Knesset calling for a refusal to grant him entry to the chamber. Meanwhile, the Jewish Anti-Defamation League in the United States released a statement on Monday in condemnation of Trump’s call for a blanket ban on Muslims, saying, in part “Mr. Trump’s plan to bar people from entry to the United States based on their religion is unacceptable and antithetical to American values … In the Jewish community, we know all too well what can happen when a particular religious group is singled out for stereotyping and scapegoating.” Dar Al Ifta issued its own statement, calling on Americans to ignore Trump’s “Islamophobic rhetoric.”


German Chancellor Angela Merkel is Time magazine’s person of the year, declaring her the “Chancellor of the World” for her moral courage and leadership on a multitude of questions, not least of which is the continent’s reaction to the Syrian refugee crisis. We weep for the hollow shell (read: social media clickbait nightmare) that Time has become, but the magazine’s beautifully written and designed coverage package is a must-read.

Other international headlines this morning that either carry implications for Egypt or that are simply worth noting in brief:

  • Don’t cry for me, Argentina: Argentine central bank governor Alejandro Vanoli has resigned, the WSJ reports, noting: “In a six-page letter, Alejandro Vanoli defended his brief 14-month tenure at the central bank and said he had taken the job under ‘highly adverse circumstances.’ Mr. Vanoli also said it was ‘false’ that the central bank has run out of foreign currency reserves, as many economists have suggested.
  • Former US Secretary of State and presidential candidate Hillary Clinton outlined her plan to overhaul US corporate taxes on Wednesday, seeking to prevent American companies from pursuing inversions, “which allow United States companies to combine with a foreign company and move the headquarters to pay a lower tax rate abroad,” reports the New York Times. Clinton’s plan would call on Congress to “require companies in the United States to control 50 percent of the combined entity in order to expatriate, compared with the 20 percent stake currently required, and instituting an ‘exit tax’ on the untaxed overseas earnings of companies that give up their residence in the United States.”
  • Facebook boss Mark Zuckerberg is reaching out to Muslims in a Facebook post: “As a Jew, my parents taught me that we must stand up against attacks on all communities. Even if an attack isn’t against you today, in time attacks on freedom for anyone will hurt everyone. If you’re a Muslim in this community, as the leader of Facebook I want you to know that you are always welcome here and that we will fight to protect your rights and create a peaceful and safe environment for you.”

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Democracy International tore apart the recently concluded parliamentary elections in a statement on the preliminary findings of their observation mission. Some highlights:

  • “Overall, the wider political climate of repression prevented these elections from meeting international standards or being considered democratic.”
  • “During the eight days of voting across the country, DI observers rarely saw voters under the age of 35.”
  • “Unlike traditional list systems in other countries, where seats are allocated based on the proportion of votes that each list receives, the list portion of the system in Egypt is not a basis for encouraging representation of minority political parties or viewpoints. Rather, the Egyptian system has the opposite effect…”

WORTH READING

The prospect of Cypriot reunification has never been better, and investors are already eyeing business opportunities in a unified Cyprus, Bloomberg reports. “Cyprus has been divided along ethnic lines since 1974 after Turkey invaded the island to prevent its unification with Greece. Turkey keeps about 35,000 troops in northern Cyprus and is the only country to recognize a Turkish Cypriot state.” A unified Cyprus would be able to produce more than the sum of its parts, with Sapienta Economics expecting the GDP of a reunified Cyprus reaching EUR 45 bn at constant prices by 2035 compared with just EUR 25 bn for the two sides together. Eurasia Group expects a reunification deal by mid-2016, an estimate bolstered by Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu saying that a solution could be reached “in coming months.”

IMAGE OF THE DAY

TIME magazine helpfully released a video and animated GIF of a bald eagle nearly biting Donald Trump for trying to grab an aspirin on his desk. The video and resulting GIF were captured when Trump posed for the cover of Time last year with the eagle in question perched on his arm. (View GIF)

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

Egypt-Greece-Cyprus trilateral summit: President Abdel Fattah El Sisi met with Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiades and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras for the third Egypt-Greece-Cyprus Trilateral Summit in Athens on Wednesday. The three leaders agreed on continuing negotiations on the delimitation of their countries’ adjacent maritime zones, according to a statement from Ittihadiya. They also endorsed the Athens Declaration, emphasizing the importance of enhancing trilateral cooperation in political, economic, cultural and tourism fields. The three agreed the next summit will be held in Egypt.

ENERGY

Jordan says it is not in gas negotiations with Israel, refutes Netanyahu’s statements
The Jordanian government denied it is in talks over gas with Israel, refuting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s statements that “gas exports will strengthen Israel’s ties with Arab states.” “Everything is frozen at the stage of the letter of intent signed by Jordan and Noble Energy,” Ibrahim Saif, Jordan’s Energy Minister said two days after Egypt froze negotiations with Israel. Haaretz says that unlike Egypt, which is trying to waive an arbitrator’s unfavourable decision, “Jordan’s decision stems from deep public opposition to Israeli gas imports.” Haaretz’s correspondent Zvi Bar’el thinks Israel should end the two agreements, saying that “Netanyahu’s claim that supplying Israeli gas to poor Arab countries might help stabilize them is also dubious, if not downright ludicrous.” He presents Turkey as “one potential regional client whose relations with Israel really might improve if Israel sold it gas.” (Read)

ITC partners with El Sewedy to prepare 1,600 workers to run Beni Suef power plant
Egypt’s Industrial Training Council (ITC) signed an agreement with El Sewedy Electric’s Power Systems Projects division to train 1,600 workers on operating the Beni Suef power plant. According to Amwal Al Ghad, ITC will finance 70% of the cost of the training program, with El Sewedy providing the remainder. The agreement to train the workers for the 4.8 GW power plant will expire in June 2017. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Transportation Ministry looks to partner with private sector in Fifth, Sixth Metro lines projects
The Ministry of Transportation is looking to issue the Fifth and Sixth Metro line projects as BOT or PPP, announced Transportation Minister Saad El Geyoushi. The ministry is also studying any other method for partnership with the private sector, noted Tarek Abu El Wafa, the Undersecretary of the Ministry of Transportation. The ministry received offers from several countries, including China, France, and South Korea, to finance the two projects. Officials have opened talks with Japanese institutions with a view to securing financing for the Fourth Metro line, he added. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

Steel price ceiling reduced by up to EGP 350 per tonne
The price ceiling of steel sold domestically was reduced by EGP 25-350 per tonne in December, according to Supplies Minister Khaled Hanafy. Amwal Al Ghad notes that weekly output rates increased to 168.7k tonnes, more than double the weekly average output of 65.0k tonnes recorded the previous month. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Misr Beni Suef Cement will run on coal from March 2016
Misr Beni Suef Cement is converting its facilities to using coal instead of natural gas and mazut, said company Chairman Farouk Moustafa. The coal mill will be completed by February, and is being financed through an EGP 180 mn loan, and self-funding, and EGP 125 mn in retained earnings, he added. Moustafa expects Misr Beni Suef Cement to be operating using coal from March 2016. (Read in Arabic)

IDG to develop 400k sqm in East Port Said industrial zone
Samcrete’s industrial arm, Industrial Development Group (IDG), is developing 400k sqm in the East Port Said industrial zone over the next three years as a first phase, said Sameh Attia, Managing Director at IDG. The company has invested EGP 30 mn in the early stages of the infrastructure projects, he added. IDG were tapped directly for this project, but have yet to ink the final agreements to develop the total 600k sqm area of the project and is relying on internal financing. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

UAE freezes USD 600 mn agreement with Ministry of Education
The UAE has frozen a preliminary agreement, inked with the Ministry of Education during Mahmoud Abu El Nasr’s era, to provide the Ministry with USD 600 mn to provide high school students in all government schools with tablets, an unnamed official at the Ministry told Al Mal. Abu El Nasr was previously quoted saying the project was set to be completed by 2017, however, Abu El Nasr’s successor, Moheb El Refaei, said the initial agreement was met with little interest in investments in education when he met with UAE officials, the source added. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

Madbouli reiterates commitment to social housing program to build one mn houses over five years
Housing Minister Moustafa Madbouli reiterated the government’s commitment to build one mn houses over the next five years. The houses will be built under a social housing programme, implemented by the Egyptian government with an investment that exceeds EGP 150 bn, Madbouli added. On the funding side, the Minister said the government is “making use of the projects we are offering to the private sector to finance and cross-subsidize the social housing program.” The project was announced first in March 2014 as a pillar of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s campaign. By Madbouli’s estimates, Egypt needs to build 500k-600k new homes each year, 70% of which is aimed at the poor, in order to keep up with demand. The Housing Ministry is also working on upgrading informal settlements and extending water and sewage infrastructure to rural areas. (Read)

PHD, MNHD sell 86% of offered units of Capital Gardens project in less than 48 hours
Palm Hills Developments (PHD) announced the launch and uptake for Capital Gardens co-development project with Madinet Nasr Housing & Development (MNHD). 86% of the offered 280 apartments were sold in less than 48 hours at a total contracts value of EGP 327 mn. The first phase of the project includes 756 apartments, and the project is being developed over four phases, with phase one units to be delivered before end of 2019. Capital Gardens is located in New Cairo. (Read In Arabic)

TOURISM

Greece looking to scavenge Egypt and Turkey’s diverted Russian tourist market
A boycott of Turkey by the Kremlin and “violence in Egypt” are driving Russian tourists to look for alternative destinations. Egypt and Turkey topped the holiday destinations for Russians in 2014, attracting more than 7 mn tourists in total. Now, Greece is looking to lure in up to two mn extra visitors in 2016 that would have gone to Egypt or Turkey. The Greek target is feasible, according to World Travel and Tourism Council CEO David Scowsill who expects Spain and Greece to benefit in the short term at the expense of Tunisia and Egypt. However, Egypt still wins the price battle with the Greek tourism sector being held back by higher costs; “package holidays in Greece cost almost three times the Egyptian or Turkish equivalent per night.” (Read)

TELECOMS + ICT

Huawei is looking to establish a smartphone assembly plant in Suez Canal Area
The company is still in talks with the Investment Ministry on a plant in the Suez Canal economic zone that could become an export hub for the MENA region as well as African markets. (Read)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

ENR inks agreement to import 700 air conditioned carriages
Egyptian National Railways inked an agreement with Russian locomotives and rail equipment manufacturer Transmashholding to build and supply the Transportation Ministry with 700 air conditioned carriages. Transmashholding will secure the financing for the project, according to Amwal Al Ghad. No further details of the agreement were given. (Read in Arabic)

Maersk Drilling wants part of logistics and port infrastructure development projects
Prime Minister Sherif Ismail met with the Maersk Drilling CEO Claus V. Hemmingsen on Tuesday to discuss the company expanding in gas and oil exploration and infrastructure development projects. Hemmingsen spoke of his company’s willingness to take part in logistics and port infrastructure development projects, according to a State Information Service release. Prime Minister Ismail talked on the government’s plan to expand energy production. He invited the company to take part in digging underground water wells for agriculture and the Western Desert and Sinai. (Read)

President El Sisi will sign a EGP 1.2 bn loan agreement with JICA next January
President El Sisi will sign a EGP 1.2 bn loan agreement with the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) to fund the expansion of Borg El Arab Airport on his state visit to Japan next January, said the head of the Egyptian Holding Company for Airports and Air Navigation (EHCAAN) Mahmoud Esmat. The project involves building a second passenger terminal for the Alexandria-based airport, and expanding the airport’s capacity by 4.5 mn travelers. Speaking on improving security at Sharm El Sheikh airport, Esmat stated that the Civil Aviation Ministry is taking the recommendations of foreign security delegation on security protocols. (Read in Arabic)

Drydocks Authority receives EUR 2 mn grant for 6 October logistical center
The General Authority for Ports and Drydocks (GAPD) received a EUR 2 mn grant from the EBRD to fund the 400 Feddan logistical center project in 6 of October City, said the GAPD head Gamal Hegazy at the Mega Projects Conference. The Authority is expected to complete technical and financial studies on the project next July. The GAPD will issue a tender for the 10th of Ramadan drydock project in 1Q16, said Hegazy. As we noted last week, seven companies have already made offers on the project. The GAPD was exploring financing mechanism for the project, according to statements by Hegazy. The Authority is also in talks with the New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) to obtain land for more Drydocks projects in the Sinai towns of Al Tur, Nuweiba, and East Port Said, Al Mal reports. (Read in Arabic)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Lifehacker: How to Recognize the Signs of Burnout Before You’re Burned Out. Most of us know if we’re burned out or not, but some of their suggestions for dealing with it are not so commonly prescribed, such as keeping a work journal as a means of recording your accomplishments to keep you motivated as well as a means to offload and vent, which is infinitely a wiser medium than an angry email.

BY THE NUMBERS
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USD CBE auction (Tuesday, 08 December): 7.7301 (unchanged since Wednesday, 11 November)
USD parallel market (Tuesday, 08 December): 8.53 (+0.01 from Sunday, 06 December, Reuters)

EGX30 (Wednesday): 6,629.32 (0.32%)
Turnover: EGP 412.5 mn (5% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -25.73%

THE MARKET ON WEDNESDAY: The EGX30 kicked off the session in the green, but quickly fell into the red within minutes, where it spent the first half of the trading session before climbing back up to close on a 0.3% gain. SODIC and Heliopolis Housing and Development went up after announcing a joint project.GB Auto and Elsaeed Contracting posted the index’s highest gains. At a market turnover of EGP 412.5 mn, local investors were the sole net buyers of the day. Regionally, Saudi Arabia’s TASI inched up, tracking a slight increase in Brent spot price. Global indices, in contrast, are trading in the red as seen in the current 0.1%, 0.6%, and 0.9% drops in the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40, respectively. The Nikkei 225 also closed 1.0% down.

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -58.6 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -2.5 mn
Domestic: Net Long | EGP +61.1 mn

Retail: 66.2% of total trades | 70.8% of buyers | 61.7% of sellers
Institutions: 33.8% of total trades | 29.2% of buyers | 38.3% of sellers

Foreign: 21.6% of total | 14.5% of buyers | 28.7% of sellers
Regional: 7.8% of total | 7.5% of buyers | 8.1% of sellers
Domestic: 70.6% of total | 78.0% of buyers | 63.2% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

The governor of the Central Bank of Egypt met yesterday with the chairmen of the nation’s banks, almost a week ahead of the MPC meeting. The news is perfectly consistent with our view that “banks have been enjoying record high NIMs post revolution (cc 5.0% or higher) so the CBE will ‘persuade’ them to raise deposit rates to support the de-dollarization initiative, maintain lending rates unchanged, and accommodate NIM compression until the country is out of the woods”.

Hence, the meeting is likely part of the “persuasion process” particularly as it is scheduled almost one week ahead of the MPC meeting. Yet, as we noted earlier, the outcome of this persuasion process is uncertain given the different objectives of shareholders and the ability of private banks to capture low-cost deposits via their long-term corporate relations. In any case, it seems that banks will indeed be requested to bear part of the brunt of the EGP defense phase, in one way or another. So, 2015 may mark the peak of the stellar growth in bottom line and RoE that started in 2012 on the back of intense deficit monetization operations. In this environment, however, selected banks may choose to maintain RoE targets by slowing down the pace of booking excess provisions or by raising fees and commissions charged on selected services. Our views on CIB have been based on gradual NIM compression, increase in fee/commission income and lower loan loss provisioning levels so we maintain our FV for CIB at EGP 52.2/share. Tap here to read the full note.

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WTI: USD 37.43 (+0.73%)
Brent: USD 40.42 (+0.77%)
Gold: USD 1,073.70 / troy ounce (-0.26%)

TASI: 7,000.7 (+0.1%)
ADX: 4,083.9 (-0.6%)
DFM: 3,001.0 (-0.3%)
KSE Weighted Index: 389.0 (-0.1%)
QE: 10,018.8 (-0.8%)
MSM: 5,502.9 (+0.6%)

 

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