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Wednesday, 19 October 2016

We need to do a better job of selling the “Egyptian street” on economic reforms

The Financial Times’ Heba Saleh and chief Allianz economic advisor Mohamed El-Erian have hit the nail on the head in the past 24 hours: We need to do a better job of selling the street on economic reforms. While we can’t help but wonder whether the parallel market rate is already priced-in to a considerable extent, but Saleh puts a human face on fear of how the measures will impact the poor and the middle-class in “Egyptians feel the pain in Sisi’s push to seal USD 12 bn IMF loan” (paywall). She’s also on-point with the assertion that a functioning FX market is only the first step: Alongside the reforms, the government needs to get the “moribund tourism industry” back on its feet (we think that starts with getting Russian charters back in the air) and bring the Zohr field into production.

The billboards Saleh notes declaring “Bold reforms shorten the route” are a start, but not a solution. As El-Erian told Lamees El Hadidi in her Monday night tour-de-force: “The most important thing is to continuously explain to Egyptian citizens why it is that these reforms are necessary and what to expect. When I go on a journey with my daughter, it’s very important to tell her where the destination is, when are we going to get there, and what the journey is going to look like. And part of a successful program is successful communication and feedback with people in the streets so that they understand the necessity of the reform program and the considerable upside of the Egyptian economy.” (Watch in English)

France24 also got in on the act, filing “Signs of dissent, desperation amid food shortages and rising prices in Egypt.”

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