Business conditions worsen in November, PMI hits a two-year low
TL;DR
Business conditions worsen in November, PMI hits a two-year low (Speed Round)
Don’t expect the EGP to fall to 10.50 any time soon, writes a top business leader (Contrarian View)
Gas import agreement with Israel isn’t necessarily kaput (Speed Round)
4 promising USAID initiatives to support business in Egypt you’ve probably never heard of (Spotlight)
World Bank, Electricity Ministry mull USD 300 mn renewable energy fund (Speed Round)
Oil hits a nearly seven-year low not seen since Lehman era (Speed Round)
Trump wants total ban on Muslim entry to United States (Speed Round)
Tuk-tuks to receive smart cards for fuel subsidies (Energy)
WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY
President Abdel Fattah El Sisi is in Athens today to attend a tripartite summit with Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and Cyprus President Nicos Anastasiades. The three leaders are set to discuss regional developments as well as economic and military cooperation.
Egypt Automotive begins at the Semiramis Hotel. Cairo Governor Galal Mostafa is expected to announce details on the Car City project, reports Al Borsa.
Also today: MEED’s two-day Egypt Mega Projects Conference opens, Healthcare Facilities Design and Development Egypt gets underway and Wastewater and Sanitation Egypt continues today, closing tomorrow.
WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK
The RiseUp Entrepreneurship and Innovation Summit 2015 kicks off on Saturday and runs through Sunday night at the Greek Campus. Register online here — please keep in mind that tickets are only available beforehand and cannot be purchased at the door. If you’re a speaker at this year’s event, please note that the registration deadline is tomorrow. We hope to see you all there.
LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS
Former EGAS chair Mohamed Shoeib talks natural gas arbitration: Former Egyptian Natural Gas Holding (EGAS) chair and energy expert Mohamed Shoeib sat down with Youssef El Housseiny on ONTV to discuss the recent ruling by international arbitrators against EGAS and the Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC) to the tune of USD 1.76 bn. El-Housseiny began the segment by saying that Hussein Salem is a shareholder in Eastern Mediterranean Gas Company (EMG), the ostensibly Egyptian company which has brought arbitration against EGPC and EGAS, a point which Shoeib later corrected as saying that Salem had sold his shares in EMG.
The primary message Shoeib communicated was that gas supplies were terminated as per a contractual clause that allowed for a cancellation of the contract if non-payment was made for a period of four consecutive months following prior notification. Shoeib also noted that the contract provided for dispute resolution to take place at the Cairo Regional Centre for International Commercial Arbitration, rather than the International Chamber of Commerce in Geneva.
Egypt’s glass ceiling: The general lack of women in senior positions, especially those not traditionally associated with being held by women, such as in the economic and security portfolio of the government, was the main focus of discussion on Lamis El Hadidy’s Hona Al Assema on CBC Egypt. El Hadidy’s panel consisted of Nehad Abo El Komsan, head of the Egyptian Centre for Women’s Rights (ECWR) and Professor Azza Heikal, dean of communications at the Arab Academy for Science and Technology. El Hadidy began the discussion by noting that while some women in Egypt have reached the top of the business world, for the most part women are not considered for roles in government outside those which have to do with family or social issues, much less governorships or the post of Speaker of the House. Azza Heikal noted that popular culture as expressed and influenced by film in the 1990s and early 2000s witnessed a marked regression in attitudes toward women in the workplace, with segments of society advocating for women to leave the workplace and return to their traditional roles at home, and were seen as responsible by some for crowding men out of the workforce. She compared this with the much more informed and liberal attitude expressed in media and film in the 1950s and 60s with regard to women’s role in society and at work. She did however note that attitudes toward women’s equality have once again shifted toward the better following the last two popular uprisings.
Abo El Komsan concurred that there were signs of improvement, pointing out that women securing 17 seats reserved for individual candidates in the recently concluded parliamentary elections is big news, as these women had to campaign on the street level and secure and win over constituencies as opposed to leaning on a party or electoral bloc. Abo El Komsan did not, however, have very kind things to say about the portrayal of women in recent Egyptian cinema, criticizing prominent actress Mona Zaki for taking part in the 2007 film Taymour and Shafika, which tells the story of a woman minister who resigned her post to get married. Abo El Komsan concluded by saying that while women represent 52% of all students in higher education, their rate of unemployment is four times that of their male peers.
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CONTRARIAN VIEW
I spend more time than most on the road talking about Egypt, and my day job provides me with more information than your average bear about the views of both foreign analysts and Egypt’s business community. And when I say “business community,” I mean in equal measure the 50 or so household names you see everywhere, the two dozen multinationals that invariably come up in conversation, and home-grown mid-sized enterprises.
For more than two years now, the conventional wisdom of economists, analysts, and businessmen is that devaluation of the national currency is the only route to economic salvation. Since the summer of 2013, no gathering of the community over coffee or drinks, in airport lounges or board rooms, has failed to arrive at this conclusion.
Devaluation is not a question of “if,” but rather the reality of “when.”
And you know what? They’re wrong. Tap here to read why.
Editor’s note: We’re running this morning our first op-ed piece by a reader. We can think of no better topic (devaluation) or author (a senior manager at a household brand name and one of the nation’s largest companies) to lead-off this occasional series. Our aim: To give space to contrarian views on contemporary issues — or pieces that bring to light topics that aren’t on the community’s mind, but should be. As usual: Views expressed are those of the author, not necessarily of Enterprise. RT ≠ endorsement. Et cetera, etc, ad nauseam… If you have an idea for an op-ed, drop us a pitch (or a draft submission of no more than 700 words) at patrick@enterprisemea.com. Our editorial staff will work with you to refine any piece we choose to run with.
SPEED ROUND
Business conditions worsened in November, PMI hits a two-year low: The downturn in Egypt’s non-oil business sector’s downturn worsened in November, according to the Emirates NBD PMI, which registered a reading of 45. The rates of contraction in output and new business were at their quickest since September 2013 and survey-record declines were reached in employment, where job losses accelerated for the third month in a row, and stocks of purchases, which dropped at their steepest rate since the bottom recorded in August 2013. The downturn was not unexpected, Jean-Paul Pigat, Senior Economist at Emirates NBD, noted saying that FX concerns continue to weigh heavily on businesses and signalling that a macroeconomic recovery will depend on “easing capital controls and allowing the EGP to weaken in 2016.” Reuters‘ Asma Alsharif has a solid take on the story, as do Bloomberg‘s Ahmed Feteha and Vivian Nereim.
Israeli gas import deals might not be totally kaput: Egypt will likely demand that the Israel Electric Corporation (IEC) waive its claims for compensation after an arbitrator awarded IEC USD 1.76 bn in damages, energy experts told Globes’ Hedy Cohen. This is “the only way that Egypt would agree to approve gas contracts with Israel,” Cohen writes. Egypt froze talks to import gas following the arbitrator’s decision. Although the gas contracts are between private entities in Egypt and Israel, they require government approval and the Egyptian government has been using this to necessitate that all arbitration cases filed against it be dropped before signing on to them. Separate from the agreement with Dolphinus, Egypt has already demanded that Union Fenosa Gas drop its case as a precondition to approve its contract with Israel. Former Israel National Gas Authority chief economist expects that waiving the claims will become the logical outcome of the stalemate saying “it will be necessary to concede compensation from Egypt, or at least some of it. The larger picture requires Israel to make concessions to Egypt. If we stick to the letter of the law, we won’t get far.”
In a sign that a resolution is probably inevitable, Israeli energy companies are still pushing for exports to Egypt: Israeli energy companies said they are pursuing talks with more potential gas importers in Egypt despite the government freezing off negotiations following the arbitration ruling. “Israel’s Delek Group, which owns stakes in two large natural gas fields off Israel, and its partners said they were not involved in the arbitration case and were moving ahead with the process of securing export deals with commercial companies in Egypt,” as per a statement sent to the Tel Aviv stock exchange.
And they have the backing of the Israeli government: Bloomberg quotes Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz as saying, “The State of Israel assigns great importance to its security and energy ties with Egypt in their entirety, and hopes that due to its close bilateral ties, it will be possible to continue to move forward on the gas issue soon,” Steinitz said on Monday. Israel must develop its offshore gas fields quickly to achieve energy security, he said.”
There are still other cases pending, Al Shorouk notes. The East Mediterranean Gas Company (EMG) is awaiting a ruling for an arbitration case filed against the Egyptian government in 2011. EMG is seeking USD 8 bn in damages after gas supplies from Egypt were halted. Besides the arbitration case filed by the Damietta liquefaction plant operators, UFG and SEGAS, for stopping gas supplies to the plant, Al Shorouk says the Israeli government is seeking USD 4.7 bn in damages from Egypt because of the supply disruption. Sources at EGPC told Al Ahram that the state-owned authority does not have any offshore bank accounts that could be frozen as a result of the ruling. The source added that the disputes are between private actors and would not impact the Egyptian government’s financial dealings with the rest of the world.
The EGPC is “at risk of defaulting” on USD 1.8 bn in loans and is “in talks with creditors,” Al Borsa reports in a quite breathless headline that overplays its hand. The EGPC, the Finance Ministry and the Central Bank of Egypt are engaged in negotiations with banks to reschedule USD loans it agreed in April to fund petroleum product imports. The EGPC accumulated USD 3 bn in new debt from December 2014 to April 2015. An unnamed banker at a state-owned bank in talks with the national oil company did not confirmed whether his bank would postpone payments, suggesting the decision hinged on the willingness of private-sector banks to do so.
The Electricity Ministry, in cooperation with the World Bank, is seeking Central Bank of Egypt approval to spin-up an USD 300 mn renewable energy fund, sources told Al Mal. A source said the fund would be financed by the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) and provides six-month financing, or 50% of the USD requirements, for feed-in tariff projects. The Electricity Ministry aims that the funding will allow investors access foreign currency and sidestep caps on foreign currency deposits, allowing renewable energy investments to move forward.
Sigma Capital will hit the road with two IPOs in 2H2016 — one for a contracting firm and another for a pharmaceutical company. The two transactions, worth an estimated EGP 200 mn, will mark the first time Sigma has advised on simultaneously public offerings, chairman and founder Ahmed Marwan told Al Borsa. The investment bank is also planning an EGP 31 mn capital increase to EGP 100 mn to fund a EGP 15 mn expansion into leasing and SME financing, Marwan said. He added that Sigma plans to use a commercial cooperation agreement with Malaysia’s CIMB Bank to grow SME insurance, leasing, and insurance brokerage activities. The investment bank is also looking to raise private equity funds over the coming six months, Maha Baleegh, the company’s head of asset management, told Al Borsa. The funds look set to focus on infrastructure and renewable energy. Al-Mal, meanwhile, reports that Sigma is in talks with the People’s Bank of China on an EGP 250 mn investment fund that would be managed in partnership with CIMB.
EFG Hermes and Sarwa Capital will take Amer Group’s EGP 500 mn securitization offering to market some time in 1Q2016, according to sources speaking to Al Borsa.
Sanitaryware maker Lecico could sue government over gas pricing: Lecico Egypt may take EGAS and the Trade and Industry Ministry to court over the pricing of natural gas, Al Mal reported. The company is effectively arguing that it has been over-billed to the tune of EGP 20 mn due to EGPC’s Byzantine pricing structure. Lecico claims EGAS had agreed to supply natural gas at USD 7 per mmBtu for the production of ceramic tiles and USD 5 per mmBtu for sanitaryware. The company’s output has been biased largely toward sanitaryware, according to Lecico, but EGAS slapped it with fuel bill assuming that production was evenly split between the two lines, allegedly resulting in an EGP 20 mn overcharge.
Here we go again: Finance Minister Hany Dimian’s announcement that workers at the Egyptian Financial Supervisory Authority (EFSA) would be subject to the Civil Service Law has reportedly led a number of EFSA employees working at the regulator’s headquarters to walk out on strike, Al Mal reports. The employees claim EFSA, as a regulatory agency, it is exempt from the law. Workers are also reportedly angered by article 15 of the Budget Law which passed last June. Particularly at issue, the newspaper adds, is a clause that makes bonuses and overtime a fixed amount, not a percentage of base salary. EFSA head Sherif Samy promised striking workers that he would work with the Finance Ministry and the Planning Ministry to reverse the decision as long as the body’s functions continue to work, according to a source within the Authority.
Earnings Watch- Qalaa Holdings reported a 31% year-on-year rise in 9M2015 earnings to EGP 6.1 bn, with its net loss after minority interest also narrowing 31% in the same period to EGP 322.4 mn, it said last night in an emailed statement. In management commentary on the earnings, Qalaa Co-Founder and Managing Director Hisham El-Khazindar said: “The sale of ASEC Cement’s Egyptian assets alongside other transactions will fundamentally re-shape Qalaa’s financials, giving more weight on both our income statement and balance sheet to ongoing operations at our energy and mining units and setting the stage for the transformative impact of Egyptian Refining company. The near-full impact of the substantial deleveraging that accompanies these transactions will be felt in our 4Q2015 and 1Q2016 financials.” ERC is due to begin production in 2017.
Pharos Investment Banking has concluded its advisory on the EGP 50 mn sale of 100% of cheese manufacturer El Misrieen to Kamal Hagag, an Egypt-based investor in the F&B sector, the company said in an emailed statement. “The sale of El Misrieen marks the second transaction for Pharos during 2015 in Egypt’s dairy market after we successfully completed the sale of Arab Dairy earlier this year,” said Pharos Founder and Chairman Dr. Mohamed Taymour. “Pharos has closed three F&B transactions during 2015, all of which serve as a testament not only to the attractiveness of the sector, but also to Egypt’s vibrant M&A market.” Pharos Holding was exclusive financial advisor to Qalaa Holdings’ Gozour on the sale. Al Kamel Law Office was legal advisor to Hagag.
Oil hit a Lehman-era low yesterday, tumbling 6% to a low not seen in nearly seven years — since February 2009, to be precise. Predictably, analysts are talking about an oil glut lasting well into mid-2016. There’s coverage in all of the usual suspects this morning, but we’d start with Reuters and the Financial Times, if we were you. CNBC, meanwhile, is trying to play geostrategist, writing that, “Social unrest in Saudi Arabia is unlikely to ratchet up significantly in the next few years, analysts tell CNBC. But if crude prices remain low, and Saudi finances continue to deteriorate, King Salman bin Abdulaziz may find it more difficult to tackle civil unrest in the future.”
Other international headlines this morning that either carry implications for Egypt or that are simply worth noting in brief:
- Algeria’s ailing president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika, “has returned home after a brief visit to France for routine medical checkups, the presidency said in a statement,” according to Reuters.
- “Donald J. Trump is calling for a total and complete shutdown of Muslims entering the United States until our country’s representatives can figure out what is going on,” the candidate’s campaign said in a statement. In a nice touch, CNN’s piece on the story was accompanied at dispatch time by an autoplay video advertising the wonders of Abu Dhabi as a business destination. The New York Times has more.
- Russia is dealing with a home-grown radicalization problem, the Financial Times‘ Kathrin Hille writes.
SPOTLIGHT
4 promising USAID initiatives to support business in Egypt you’ve probably never heard of: USAID held a roundtable at their office in Cairo on Tuesday to brief members of the domestic press on the agency’s activities and initiatives to support young people, entrepreneurship and development in Egypt. The session was chaired by Mission Director Sherry Carlin, who was sworn in last March following her previous mission as director of the Sri Lanka and Maldives offices, and previously served as Mission Director in the West Bank and Gaza for four years, among other jurisdictions.
The roundtable was aimed at increasing visibility and public awareness of the agency’s mission in Egypt, especially as Director Carlin found that many Egyptians with whom she spoke with after beginning her term were unaware that USAID still had a presence in Egypt. The agency is doing interesting work in helping redress the skills mismatch between young people and the requirements needed by businesses in Egypt – a problem with which most of our readers are painfully aware.
STEM schools: One of the more fascinating projects the agency launched over the past few years was the opening of two STEM (science, technology, engineering and math education) schools – a 300-student girl’s school in Maadi and a 357-student boy’s school – and which has gone on to meet achieve remarkable results. Students are actually enabled to conduct their own research, work with in-classroom technology such as 3D printers, and three of their female students went on to compete in a science fair in the United States organized by Intel, where the entrants placed third in their category for their work on using ultraviolet germicidal irradiation to desalinate water using 24% less energy than by conventional means. Construction on three additional STEM schools – two in the Nile Delta and one in Assiut – are nearing completion, with another four planned by 2017. Altogether, these schools will have a combined student body of 3,600 students given the opportunity to develop and apply their creativity and critical thinking skills while developing a hands-on knowledge of scientific inquiry and technology. The schools have been so successful, that according to a release by USAID, the UAE and Bahrain are planning to send students to Egypt’s STEM schools for summer camp.
USD 23 mn SEED fund for microenterprises and SMEs: Announced in October, the USD 23 mn Strengthening Entrepreneurship and Economic Development fund was launched to help support job creation and Egypt’s young entrepreneurs.
USD 22 mn WISE project to address youth workforce skills gap: The Workforce Improvement and Skills Enhancement will seek to not only provide technical secondary students with the vocational skills needed to help secure employment, the agency states that it will go further by helping link these students with the private sector.
Helping preserve Egypt’s ancient monuments is still ongoing: One of USAID’s more well-known initiatives in Egypt, besides the enormous canal cities water and sanitation projects of previous decades, was the important work with which they assisted to lower the water table at the Sphinx and surround sites to help prevent further damage from highly saline groundwater. That work is still ongoing today, with USAID having contributed USD 100 mn since 1995 for the preservation of historical sites .
EGYPT IN THE NEWS
“The man helping to create a tech ecosystem in Egypt“: Ahmed El Alfi and friends won big notice from CNBC yesterday as the business news network ran with a nice, long piece on community El Alfi and like-minded colleagues have built in the former AUC Greek Campus. Better still: CNBC has also posted a video report, featuring Greek Campus CEO Tarek Ali Taha and Yaoota’s Sherif ElRakabawy and Gesr’s Basma Albann.
Egypt’s next parliament will be “loyal, but unruly,” writes the Carnegie Endowment’s Nathan Brown in an op-ed for the BBC headlined “Egypt’s new parliament — posturing without politics.”
ENERGY
EGPC inks two oil agreements in Gulf of Suez, Western Desert
The Egyptian General Petroleum Company (EGPC) inked two oil discovery agreements in the Gulf of Suez and the Western Desert. The first is with HBS Oil and Gas Properties, with a minimum investment value of USD 9 mn, and a signing grant of USD 1 mn, to dig 4 discovery wells in Halif in the Western Desert. The second extends EGPC’s development contract in the Gazwarina Crude field to 10 years. The ministry has so far inked 63 new oil and gas agreements with international companies to dig 268 wells at an investment value of around USD 14.3 bn, Petroleum Ministry Tarek El Molla stated. (Read in Arabic)
French-Dutch consortium wins consulting tender for third Gabal El Zeit wind farm
The BNV GL-KEMA consortium won the consulting tender for a 200 MW wind farm in Gabal El Zeit, after beating out 12 other companies and consortiums, sources told Al Mal. The cost of the 17 month feasibility study is EGP 4 mn that will be funded by an EU renewable energy grant, said Mohamed El Sobky, CEO of the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA). The total cost of the project is estimated around EUR 320 mn, that will be funded through the European Investment Bank, the French Development Agency, the EU and European partners, in addition to the NREA. (Read in Arabic)
Fuel smart cards cover tuk-tuks now
The government began rolling out the fuel subsidies smart cards for tuk-tuks in Fayoum, ahead of incorporating tuk-tuks into the smart cards subsidies program across all governorates. Obtaining the smart card involves registering the tuk-tuk’s ownership papers and model information. It appears that rolling out the smart cards for tuk-tuks in this way is being used by the government to set up a database for tuk-tuk vehicles. The Finance Ministry’s database is reportedly now 200K tuk-tuk vehicles strong. The fuel smart cards program saw the production and distribution of 5.7 mn diesel and benzene cards across 27 traffic authorities nationwide, covering 100% of all registered vehicles. This fuel subsidies reform program—which aimed to curb black market trading in subsidized fuel—had been delayed since June by order of the President. (Read in Arabic)
INFRASTRUCTURE
Housing Ministry to present EGP 30 bn water infrastructure plan
Housing Ministry will present a EGP 30 bn water infrastructure development plan to the incoming House of Representatives, said Housing Minister Mustafa Madbouly. The plan has an ambitious deadline of 30 months to complete. 8.5 bn will be used to develop drinking water infrastructure while the rest will be used to develop drainage and wastewater capabilities. The Water Resources Ministry completed planning on 44 urgent water infrastructure projects in Beheira and Alexandria, which are part of the Housing ministry’s plan. The Water Resources Ministry set a budget for the project at EGP 1.1 bn, and set a timeline for the projects which would be fully completed by next June, said Minister Hussam El Maghazy to Al Ahram. The Housing Ministry had announced that it had begun working on the project back in early October, according to Al Borsa. (Read in Arabic)
REAL ESTATE + HOUSING
Real estate captured 13.7% of new investments in 9M2015
The real estate sector grew 11.6% in the first nine months of this fiscal year, and contributed 4.1% to GDP in that period, said Investment Minister Ashraf Salman who gave the keynote speech at the Real Estate Industry in Egypt conference on Sunday. The sector captured 13.7% of new investments and it has the capacity to employ 11.4% of the nation’s labor force, according to Salman. He delved into the growing importance this sector will continue to have in the Egypt, in light of a growing population and an increase in demand. (Read in Arabic)
Gated communities developers want to allow nonresidents to shop in compounds
A number of gated communities and compound developers have come out against regulations that restrict access to commercial retailers at compounds to their residents. Real estate developers are finding it difficult to market space for commercial outlets and retailers, due to their restricted use by compound residents, said Alaa Bassiouny, chairman of Al Watania Real Estate Investments. He alleges that this scaring off retailers whose customer base would be limited to residents. Opening commercial services and stores to the general public will help reinvigorate demand by retailers, increase commercial activities in gated communities, and boost property values, said Mamdouh Badr El Din, who heads the real estate investment division at the Federation of Chambers of Commerce. (Read in Arabic)
TOURISM
Sinai tourism could take a year to rebuild, Monarch Airlines says
Sinai tourism could take as long as a year to rebuild following the Russian plane crash, the UK’s Monarch Airlines said. Monarch will be ready to restart flights to Sharm El Sheikh in early 2016 depending on the guidance of British and Egyptian authorities, but does not expect to get back to its full volume of operations until the end of the year. EasyJet and British Airway have also said they will not resume Sharm El Sheikh flights until January 2016 at the earliest. (Read)
CBE launches new initiative to support tourism employees
The CBE has launched a new initiative to support retail banking clients working in the tourism sector that allows banks to postpone loan installments for consumer purposes from performing clients, due to the emergency situations that have caused delayed payments, reports Al Mal. Three guidelines were set by the CBE, including postponing installments for 6 months as of last October without additional delay fees, the credit facilities should not be considered irregular and should not reflect negatively on credit scores, and verifying client information concerning employment in tourism sector. Banks that want to participate in the initiative must first notify the CBE. (Read in Arabic)
AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION
Transportation Ministry’s development plan
The Transport Ministry’s USD 24.4 bn transportation networks development plan which it will present to the incoming House of Representatives will consist of 31 projects primarily in land and sea and river transport infrastructure, according to an Al Borsa infographic breaking down the plan’s expenditures. Key features of the plan include: allocating USD 8.6 bn towards developing roads and bridges; USD 7.4 bn towards developing the railway networks; while USD 5.6 bn were geared towards the Metro; USD 200 mn for drydocks and logistical center development; USD 80 mn for the river taxi project; and USD 2.1 mn for sea port developments. (view Arabic infographic)
Customs Authority exempts certain EU-sourced spare parts from customs duties
The Customs Authority has issued a list of spare parts sourced from the EU which will be exempted from tariffs. The products which range from types of chassis to glass and engine parts are usually charged tariffs from between 2% to 30% if they are sourced from outside the EU. This comes as part of Egypt’s agreement to lower tariffs on auto imports from the EU. The list of exempted parts was published in Al Borsa, which you can view here.
OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE
Three companies qualify to bid for VAT ad campaign, JWT and TNC pull out
Three advertising agencies were prequalified to bid for the Finance Ministry’s ad campaign for VAT. JWT and Tarek Nour Communications (TNC) withdrew from the bidding process citing “harsh” contractual terms, Al Mal said. Advertising agencies Al Ahram, Advantage, and Impact BBDO are bidding for the contract. TNC had managed the Finance Ministry’s hugely successful tax reform campaign in 2005 (running time 01:03) and again in 2009 (running time 01:08).
FEP Capital completes two acquisitions for EGP 40 mn
FEP Capital completed the acquisition of 55% of Suez Canal Trade and Agriculture Development and 54.2% of restaurant and café investor NOG Investment Company through its subsidiary Engazat Misr for a total of EGP 40 mn. Both acquisitions come as part of FEP’s expansion into the Egyptian food sector, with the aim of growing these investments to the point of exporting regionally, said FEP’s managing director Omar El Maghawry. Suez Canal Trade and Agriculture controls about 10% of the seeds market, according to Al Mal, while NOG Investment has six investments in the restaurant sector. (Read in Arabic)
EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS
Metrojet seeks compensation from Egypt following Sinai plane crash
TH&C tourist holding, the owner of Russia’s Metrojet, said the airline is seeking compensation from Cairo after the plane crash in Sinai. He added the company is looking to reach an agreement without filing any lawsuits in respect of Russia and Egypt’s relations. TH&C’s owner expects Egypt to declare the official results of the investigation into the crash soon. (Read)
NATIONAL SECURITY
Another false bomb threat forces Hurghada-bound plane to land in Budapest: A passenger plane headed to Hurghada from Berlin landed in Budapest following a false bomb threat, police said, according to Reuters. Hungarian police searched passengers and luggage on the Condor Airlines plane and found no explosives on board. German airline Condor said it had received an “unspecified threat” made via telephone, causing the plane to turn from Serbian airspace and land in Hungary for a security check. Nearly three weeks ago, we noted that a Hurghada-bound flight made an emergency landing in Budapest over a fake bomb scare that later turned out to be the joke of an intoxicated passenger.
ON YOUR WAY OUT
“Egyptian minister says talk of international arbitration on Ethiopian dam is ‘premature’,” writes Ahram Online, citing comments carried by its parent paper Al-Ahram.
USD CBE auction (Sunday, 06 December): 7.7301 (unchanged since Wednesday, 11 November)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 06 December): 8.52 (-0.01 from Thursday, 03 December, Reuters)
EGX30 (Monday): 6777.81 (-0.87%)
Turnover: EGP 539.6 mn (24% above the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -24.07%
THE MARKET ON MONDAY: The EGX30 opened in the green before starting a slow slide to close down 0.9% yesterday. Only a handful of EGX30 constituents gained ground, led by GB Auto and Edita, while Palm Hills Developments and Amer Group closed down. The benchmark index was also pulled down by the 3.5% loss posted by heavyweight CIB. At a market turnover of EGP 539.6m, local investors were the sole net buyers of the day. Regionally, Saudi Arabia’s TASI closed down as Brent prices fell, while the Nikkei 225 and European indices closed in the green.
Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -18.2 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -44.3 mn
Local: Net Long | EGP +62.5 mn
Retail: 71.6% of total trades | 79.6% of buyers | 63.5% of sellers
Institutions: 28.4% of total trades | 20.4% of buyers | 36.5% of sellers
Foreign: 8.8% of total | 7.2% of buyers | 10.5% of sellers
Regional: 10.9% of total | 6.8% of buyers | 15.0% of sellers
Domestic: 80.3% of total | 86.0% of buyers | 74.5% of sellers
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PHAROS VIEW
It is nothing new to most readers, particularly fixed income fund managers, that the CBE’s primary target at this stage is to restore confidence in the EGP. To do so in the absence of a reserve firepower, the CBE adopted a Big Bang approach — one that is not based on a sudden devaluation but rather on shattering one-way bets against the EGP and “administratively” controlling the pass-through of policy actions to the government, private sector and households. So, up to date, the pricing of 1) foreign currencies, 2) EGP treasuries, 3) long-term CDs at commercial banks, and 4) basic food items do not reflect their market-based equilibria in as much as they are manifestations of the “confidence restoration phase”.
With this in mind, projecting the CBE’s next move using conventional monetary analysis may be irrelevant. Whereas conventional analysis suggests that a rate hike is the logical course of action, there is a strong argument in favor of keeping policy rates unchanged. Still, the CBE’s ability to enforce a broad-based increase in CD rates, particularly at large private banks, is questionable. Whether or not the CBE will allow a pass-through is probably the main topic that the recently reactivated Coordination Council will address.
What’s clear is this: We are not operating according to a conventional monetary policy framework. The decision to raise policy rates is not a decision to match the US Fed lift-off or a decision to defend the currency inasmuch as it is a decision to transfer the burden of defending the EGP from banks to borrowers, including a debt-loaded government. Based on market intelligence, we understood that the c. EGP 650 bn borrowed directly from the CBE are remunerated at market rates, versus concessional rates pre the 2011 revolution. Hence, the decision to raise policy rates is very costly, both financially and politically. Yet, if conventional monetary policy tools are reactivated, we do not rule out a policy rate hike but what the aforementioned analysis tells us is that the magnitude will be very limited — max 50 bps. Tap here to read the full note.
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WTI: USD 37.77 (+0.32%)
Brent: USD 40.97 (+0.32%)
Gold: USD 1,069.50 / troy ounce (-0.53%)
TASI: 7,166.7 (-1.3%)
ADX: 4,209.7 (+0.3%)
DFM: 3,104.2 (-2.2%)
KSE Weighted Index: 391.0 (-0.5%)
QE: 10,418.5 (-0.8%)
MSM: 5,537.2 (-0.1%)