Tuesday, 24 November 2015

BG’s Cyprus deal boosts Egypt’s energy hub ambitions

TL;DR

Egypt’s ambitions as regional energy hub advance as BG Group takes equity in Cypriot gas field (Speed Round)

Amr Adeeb warns that talks on Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam have failed (Last Night’s Talk Shows)

Tariffs on EU car imports to fall a further 10% next year (Speed Round)

EgyptAir no longer accepting air freight bound for Canada; EU-destined goods could be next (Speed Round)

Qalaa’s Mashreq Petroleum in talks to terminate East Port Said concession (Speed Round)

Egypt is the world’s second-largest producer of the planet’s second-most popular fish (Speed Round)

Bombardier, Mitsubishi, Rotem in competition for Cairo Metro train upgrade (Transportation)

MIDOR, Gas Cool could shelve IPO plans (Banking + Finance)

By the Numbers + Maridive and Oil Services could be a good play right about now

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Results from the final round of parliamentary elections started rolling in yesterday after polls closed. Winners were announced individually at each voting center. We will know by mid-day a better sense of the results, with the official tally announced by the HEC at the end of the week.

Global markets are keeping one eye this morning on U.S. GDP figures for 3Q2015 and the latest consumer confidence numbers, both of which are due out this afternoon (CLT), CNBC reports. And if you do visit the broadcaster’s site, check out “Insiders sending an ominous market signal,” which argues something must be amiss given “Corporate insiders have been dumping shares at the highest pace in 4½ years … raising concern about the durability of a rally that began in October, tailed off in early November, but has come back strongly of late.”

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

Tarek Amer takes over as governor of the Central Bank of Egypt on Friday, 27 November, while the new CBE board members assume their role office the following Sunday.

A number of conferences are taking place this week:

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Almost all of the talk shows attempted forced enthusiasm in their exhaustive and exhausting coverage of the elections, with the notable exception of Amr Adeeb, who delivered a message on a threat facing Egypt which urgently needs to be heard and internalized by everyone in the country, but which will instead likely fall on deaf ears because that’s life.

Lamees El Hadidy on CBC Egypt had, of course, the now-standard eight-split-screen extravaganza for which CBC is known, thankfully sparing us their 16-split screen view which gets trotted out every now and again. Nights like these are not necessarily the fault of the television hosts; they have to cover elections. The problem lies in the absurdly self-indulgent format of Egypt’s talk shows in terms of running time, which can run from an hour to Amr Adeeb’s nearly four hour format — how have we come to the point where anyone could possibly believe that a four-hour daily television program is reasonable?

The only thing ostensibly newsworthy mentioned on El Hadidy’s show, as well as all the other talk shows, was former Judge Tahani El-Gebali accusing the pro-government electoral alliance “For the love of Egypt” of having met with and received funding from the Muslim Brotherhood in Kuwait. El-Gebali made the allegation during a press conference last night, at the end of the second and final day of voting for the second and final round of parliamentary elections. El-Gebali has pictures — she claims, although they were not provided at her press conference. The ‘For the love of Egypt’ coalition told reporters that her accusations, which would amount to high treason, are “unacceptable and unreal,” Ahram Online reported. Which is true, but begs the question: Why don’t all the other unacceptable and unreal things that are said and done in Egypt on a daily basis never raise any eyebrows? A question for another lifetime, perhaps.

Like Adeeb, Ibrahim Eissa on Al Kahera Wal Nas also appeared a little restless amid the need to cover the non-event elections, switching a good deal of focus to deriding claims of Islamophobia in the West as a substitute for introspection. Eissa showed footage of an imam named Rachid Abou Houdeyfa lecturing children in Brest, France, where Houdeyfa advised that listening to music is not only forbidden, but that doing so will result in the children being turned into monkeys and pigs. Houdeyfa has gained notoriety for his sermons, leading to a police search of his mosque last Friday, which resulted in no arrests, Reuters reports. Eissa blamed a good deal of global terror on extremist ideology supported by and exported from Saudi Arabia, a recurring theme on Eissa’s show. “Wahhabi. Wahhabi. Wahhabi.” (Watch in Arabic, running time: 6:22)

Eissa’s derision of false claims of Islamophobia raises an interesting point in current global culture wars — there is a real and growing bigotry against Muslims in the West, while at the same time, the Muslim politicians and advocacy groups who speak out against it are almost invariably Islamists: From Erdogan, who attempts to style himself as a leader for all Muslims everywhere, to the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR) and the Muslim Student Association (MSA) in the United States, both of which reportedly have Islamist ties. Mainstream Muslims who also reject political Islam not only have little to no voice in the ongoing global discussion on Islam, they are more likely to start identifying and supporting organizations like CAIR if these are the only institutions they hear defending Muslims and Islam from attack. President Abdel Fattah El Sisi and Al Azhar have attempted to start engaging with the media in the West on Islam, but this is a long process and Islamist groups have a significant head start.

Meanwhile. Amr Adeeb would impatiently cut to brief updates on the elections throughout his broadcast, only to switch back to the main topic at hand: the negotiations surrounding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Adeeb simply stated that negotiations have failed, (though his co-hosts cautiously walked back that part of the statement later in the program) saying that Egypt should proceed with negotiations but must focus on alternatives and a massive water conservation campaign. He also argued that instead of the enormous outlays of water needed for the new administrative capital and the half mn feddan reclamation project, that those water resources need to be better managed and preserved. It’s an important message, but the culture of wastefulness with regard to water is deeply ingrained in our culture. (Watch in Arabic, running time: 7:22)

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Egypt’s ambitions as a regional energy hub take a significant step forward as BG Group takes equity in Cyprus’ Aphrodite gas field: BG Group announced it has acquired a 35% stake of Block 12 offshore Cyprus, which includes the Aphrodite gas field. The block is operated by Noble Energy and the deal is subject to certain regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions. BG Group says the “upstream position provides a potential source of gas to Egypt where BG Group holds equity in the two train LNG export facility at Idku.” Block 12 is adjacent to Egyptian waters and is only 40 km away from Eni’s Zohr field. The block is also close to Israel’s Tamar and Leviathan fields. We are also keeping our eye on Petroceltic and Edison who were in 2014 awarded the rights to the North Port Fouad concession, which is south of Block 12’s Aphrodite and 3 km east of Zohr.

On a related note: EGAS has completed the technical and financial studies for a pipeline connecting Cypriot gas from the Aphrodite gas field to Egypt, EGAS Chairman Khaled Abdel Badie told Al Shorouk. Cyprus is expected to conduct its final studies to extend the pipeline to one of three liquefaction plants in either Idku, Damietta, or Port Said. The agreement includes importing around 700 mcf of gas per day from Aphrodite. If the deal is approved by both parties, imports should begin from 2018 or 2019, Abdel Badie noted.

Tariffs on imported European cars are set to fall a further 10% early next year, which would mean tariffs on vehicles of European Union origin are down 60% since the signing of the EU-Egypt Association Agreement, an official from the Customs Authority told Al Borsa. Egypt is committed under the trade pact to reduce tariffs on automobile imports by 10% annually, with an eye towards eliminating tariffs on cars by 2019. The government had postponed the cuts in 2014 due to pressures on the domestic auto industry, but resumed them in 2015. As it stands, the government has not ordered the Customs Authority to halt tariff reductions. These reductions would help lower prices of cars by 5% in 2016, if Egypt manages to stabilize FX reserves, said Ra’fat Masrooga at auto industry association AMIC. Masrooga is also critical of what he called “protectionist” calls for the government to enact the so-called “automotive directive” long advocated by domestic assemblers seeking protection against Turkish, Moroccan and European Union imports.

EgyptAir will no longer accept air freight bound for Canada due to the security measures the US and Canada have imposed on goods shipped from Egypt, Al Mal reports. As we noted on Sunday, EgyptAir had stopped the transport of goods on planes destined for the US and London as a result of the added security measures. The company held meetings to discuss alternatives to shipping air freight to the US, including using other airlines, but these were rejected by the US Transportation Safety Authority (TSA). EgyptAir will also spend EGP 17.5 mn to upgrade scanning equipment in order to meet the new safety guidelines issued by the TSA. There are also murmurs among exporters that these new safety regulations have now been imposed by EU countries, Al Borsa reports. If confirmed, the Ready Made Garments Export Council warns any such move would jeopardize plans to expand the Qualifying Industrial Zones program in jeopardy. QIZs are zones in Egypt that enjoy duty-free access to the U.S. market provided the incorporate a minimum percentage of Israeli content.

No, Juhayna did not master time travel: The Consumer Protection Agency (CPA) has not found other instances of Juhayna 1L whole milk packs with future production dates printed on them — and it seems investigators tried, having combed through supermarkets in Maadi, Dokki, and Agouza, said the CPA’s head Atef Yacoub. He urged any and all who have purchased packs with misrepresented production dates to come forward, Al Shorouk reports. UHT milk can only be marketed seven days after packaging — that’s Juhayna’s explanation for having a package being circulated with a future production date on it. Juhayna added that the Egyptian Organization for Standardization and Quality requires dairy producers to test packaged batches for seven days before releasing them to the market, which, according to Juhayna, explains the future date printed on the package. The company asked whoever bought the specific package to send it to the CPA because it is leaked from the company’s warehouses, Juhayna said, according to Al Borsa.

Orascom Construction (OC) reported net income of USD 64.3 mn in 9M2015 and announced dividend distribution of USD 0.36 per share. The press release also notes that revenues registered USD 3 bn in the first three quarters of the year. OC also noted that it has a “healthy backlog level” of USD 6.7 bn with new contracts signed primarily in Egypt and USA in 3Q2015.

Qalaa Holdings subsidiary Mashreq Petroleum is in talks to terminate a concession for a liquid bulk station at East Port Said with the General Authority of the Suez Canal Economic Zone, according to Reuters. Mashreq had aimed to develop a fuel bunkering facility on a leased 210k sqm plot of land in East Port Said. Qalaa Holdings said in a statement sent to the EGX that negotiations are taking place by “mutual consent,” noting that the General Authority of the Suez Canal Economic Zone has committed to repaying all the costs already incurred for the project.

Meanwhile: Qalaa Holdings will announce the winning offer to buy agrifoods subsidiary Dina Farms at the end of next week, according to “sources close to the deal” speaking to Al Borsa. The two competing offers come from Saudi Arabia’s NADEC and Almarai. Qalaa is expected to sell Dina Farms for EGP 700 mn, the unnamed source claims. HC Securities & Investment is advising on the transaction.

The Kuwait Fund will finance part of the power interconnection project between Egypt and Saudi Arabia. The fund is extending a 25-year KWD 30 mn (USD 98 mn) loan at 2% interest plus an annual 0.5% service charge for the project that connects the electricity grids of the two countries. The loan covers 15% of the total cost of the 500 kV DC interconnection that starts at Badr in Egypt passing by Tabuk and ends at El Madinah El Munawara in Saudi Arabia. The Kuwait Fund says the project “consists of three rectifier stations … connected by overhead High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Lines with the length of 1300 km and a submarine cable passing by Gulf of Aqaba for the direct interconnection of both grids. The project includes construction, supply and installation of all required equipment and instruments, together with consulting services.”

Egypt will use uranium dioxide and mixed oxide fuel to fire Daba’a nuclear power plant, Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker told Daily News Egypt. The fuel will be provided by the supplier company Rosatom for the plant for 5-10 years and Egypt will begin stockpiling the fuel to ensure the availability of supply. After using the fuel, the plan is to have it “stored gradually in water basins to alleviate radiation of the fuel as well as providing suitable means for cooling” followed by transferring it “for reprocessing and separation of some fission products useful for medical, agricultural, and industrial uses,” Shaker adds. Rosatom will also provide the plant with “modern and sophisticated technologies” to dispose of low and medium-level radioactive waste.

The cabinet economic group met on Monday with Prime Minister Sherif Ismail and tapped the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones (GAFI) as the sole government body tasked with approving the establishment of new companies and facilities, AMAY reports. The move comes as part of the “one stop shop” policy which the Investment Ministry has long promised but has so far largely failed to deliver, even as the time required to incorporate in Egypt has, for most plain-vanilla companies, fallen steadily in the past decade. Other key decision include: appropriating EGP 265 mn to fund building up the capacity of the Al Yasr desalination plant in Hurghada and reallocating 8.6K feddans—originally designated for the Hirafiyeen district in Giza—to Six October City. The Prime Minister also disclosed that a gubernatorial reshuffle is “likely” once the new parliament is elected, at a press conference today, Al Mal reports.
The U.S. State Department has issued its first worldwide travel alert in about a year, warning Americans should be cautious in general and consider giving large holiday-themed gatherings in particular. “Current information suggests that ISIL (aka Da’esh), al-Qa’ida, Boko Haram, and other terrorist groups continue to plan terrorist attacks in multiple regions. These attacks may employ a wide variety of tactics, using conventional and non-conventional weapons and targeting both official and private interests. … Authorities believe the likelihood of terror attacks will continue as members of ISIL/Da’esh return from Syria and Iraq.” Read State’s warning here or check out that bastion of high-quality journalism known as USA Today.

Egypt is the world’s second-largest producer of tilapia — the world’s second-most popular fish. Beyond being proof positive of actual foreign direct investment, that’s the most interesting nugget to emerge from news that Norwegian multinational aquafeed company Skretting opened an additional production line in its Egyptian plant in the Delta, allowing it to triple its fish feed capacity by 150K tonnes. Egypt is the world’s second largest producer of farmed tilapia following China, employing over a half mn Egyptians in the industry, more than the rest of Africa combined. Egypt’s production is expected to increase from 1.3 mn tonnes in 2014 to 2 mn tonnes by 2020. (Read)

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Six Sudanese migrants were killed in a firefight between Egyptian security forces and smugglers along the border with Israel, reported The Guardian. Last week, 15 Sudanese migrants were killed and eight wounded attempting to cross the border. The incident is currently the top story on Egypt in the foreign press, and is being reported on by Reuters, the BBC, the AFP, the Jerusalem Post, and others.

U.N. panel to review airport security after Egypt plane crash: This misleadingly titled Reuters report suggests that the UN’s International Civil Aviation Organization is holding a meeting in March to improve airport security worldwide as a response to the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268. However, when actually pressed to comment on Egypt, officials questioned insisted on waiting for the results of the investigation to be concluded. Further negating the leading bent of the article is the succinct statement of Angela Gittens, director general of Airports Council International: “The question becomes did the airline and the [Sharm] airport exercise standard protocols? If they did, then we have a problem. If they didn’t, then they have a problem.”

Speaking of airport security in Sharm: It smells to us as if the U.K. pilots’ association is covering its behind, with the Wall Street Journal reporting: “Pilots were concerned about security at Egypt’s Sharm El Sheikh airport before the October bombing of a Russian jetliner that took off from the beach resort, the head of the British Airline Pilots Association said on Monday.” The story notes that “pilots didn’t report their concerns about Sharm El Sheikh security because the lapses were increasingly viewed as normal for the facility.” Apparently, the association would just love to earn citizenship in the Nation of Snitches for its members, saying the U.K. should “engage pilots and cabin crew to be the eyes and ears of the aviation industry” and going so far as to call union members “free intelligence officers.”

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

Egypt requested postponement of tripartite meeting on Ethiopian dam -Sudanese water minister
The tenth tripartite summit between Egypt, Ethiopia and Sudan regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), originally scheduled to be held in Khartoum at the end of the month, was postponed due to Egypt’s request, according to Sudanese minister of Water Resources and Electricity Moatez Moussa speaking to the Sudan Tribune on Sunday. The minister states that the meeting was postponed to give time for a separate meeting to first take place between the foreign ministers of the three riparian states. The article notes sources of recent friction between Egypt and Sudan, including that Sudan has signaled its approval of the dam’s construction, as well as noting reports that the delay was due to diplomatic tensions between Egypt and Sudan following reported incidents of mistreatment of Sudanese nationals living in Egypt.

ENERGY

Gas production down to 4.15 bcf per day, EGAS says
National natural gas production rate has dropped to 4.15 bcf per day from 4.65 bcf per day by 2014’s end, EGAS said. The main driver behind the drop is that now compensatory wells were connected to make up for the natural rate of decline since no new agreements were signed from 2011 to 2013. With production from the north Alexandria and Zohr fields comes onstream from 2017 onwards. (Read)

Four international offers to build USD 3.5 bn Hamrawein power plant
The Ministry of Electricity received four offers from four consortiums to build the Hamrawein power plant North of Al Qusayr for the East Delta Electricity Production Company (EDEPCO). The consortiums include Orascom Construction with IPIC and Dongfang Electric with CAMC Engineering. EEHC have not deciding on tasking the project by direct order, or publicly issuing it. The plant has a capacity of 2,000 MW and will run on coal, output is expected to increase to 3,500 MW. (Read in Arabic)

Transportation Ministry to form a EGP 1 bn coal distribution company
The Transportation Ministry, the Red Sea Ports Authority, and the Nasr Mining Company will form a EGP 1 bn company to handle coal shipments and deliveries along the Red Sea, said Transportation Minister Saad El Geyoushi. Furthermore, the ministry plans to begin constructing a coal station in the Red Sea port of Al Hamrawein, which can handle 15 mn tons of coal per annum. The follows a meeting with leading cement companies including Misr Qena Cement, and ASEC Minya, the probable recipients of the coal these projects will handle. (Read in Arabic)

EBRD lends Merlon Petroleum USD 40 mn to support investments in Fayoum
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) is lending Merlon Petroleum USD 40 mn to support the development of Merlon’s concession in El Fayoum. “The EBRD loan will contribute to Merlon’s capital investment programme to develop producing fields, increase reserves and upgrade existing facilities” and will be planned and executed through its JV, Petrosilah. Part of the funds will also be directed towards investments to enhance the recovery of associated petroleum gas. (Read)

NREA signs land grant agreement with seven companies
The New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) has signed-off on land grants to seven solar power projects under the feed-in tariffs system in Minya with a combined generation capacity of 350 MW. The seven companies—which include Adenium Energy Capital, Gulf New Energy, and Smart Green Holdings—had been on a waitlist for this land after winning tenders. NREA readied 4,200 km2 for solar energy companies that remain on the waitlist. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Fayoum Governorate plans EUR 300 mn water project by Lake Qarun
Fayoum Governorate is planning a massive wastewater development project aimed at preventing wastewater from contaminating Lake Qarun (historically named Lake Moeris), with EUR 300 mn funding from the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD). The project will see the development of a number of networked wastewater stations around the lake, said Fayoum’s Governor Wael Makram. The announcement follows a meeting between the Governor and the head of the Holding Company for Water and Wastewater Mamdouh Reslan with a delegation from the EBRD to discuss the project. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

EGP 8.5 bn new investments over three years, says Sugar Crops Council
The sugar industry will attract EGP 8.5 bn in investments over the coming three years, says Abdel Wahab Allam, head of the Sugar Crops Council. The investments will be directed into new projects including an EGP 2.5 bn sugar factory in Sharqiya with a capacity of 200k tonnes annually. The factory will provide 1,000 direct job opportunities and is expected to be completed by 2017. A second project involving establishing a company with UAE funding to build a sugar production factory in Minya, as well as land reclamation and sugar beet plantations with a total investment cost of EGP 5-6 bn. (Read in Arabic)

Agriculture ministry approves importing cattle from all Brazilian states
The Agriculture Ministry’s General Organization for Veterinary Services (GOVS) has approved importing live cattle from all of Brazil’s states. Prior to the decision, Brazilian cattle could be imported from two states. GOVS recommendation has been sent to the Agriculture Ministry for final approval. The move follows extensive testing to ensure the health and quality of the cattle—which are slated for the meat industry. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Borg El Arab factories resume limited operations as water quality improves
Borg El Arab have are starting to ramp-up operations as the quality of supplied water has begun to improve, Al Borsa reported. For the past two weeks, factories were not operational because of the high salinity levels detected in water. According to Faragalla’s Farag Amer, whose factories had failed to meet its exports obligations during the past period, the largest losses were incurred by food manufacturers, but are now returning to normal output gradually. (Read in Arabic)

Russia to build Industrial zone in East Port Said
Russia has decided on the East Port Said area to build its industrial zone in Egypt, Industrial Development Authority (IDA) Chairman Ismail Gaber, said. Negotiations between Cairo and Moscow were suspended in the wake of the Russian plane crash in Sinai, but  will resume soon, Gaber told Amwal Al Ghad. The IDA had recently surveyed an area of 2 mn sqm for the  Russian industrial zone, that can be used for engineering industries, machinery and equipment manufacturing, ship manufacturing, and food industry. (Read in Arabic)

EFIC to boost production capacity by 500 ktons per annum
The Egyptian Financial & Industrial Company (EFIC) will complete the installation of a new production line in its Assiut chemical plant in six months, and will add a second production line to its Ein Sokhna facility by the end of 2016. These two new lines will boost the company’s production capacity by 500 ktons per annum. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Novartis expects EGP 2.5 bn worth of sales in Egypt this year
Novartis expects it will record EGP 2.5 bn in sales in Egypt in 2015, up from EGP 2.3 bn last year, Al Borsa reported. The pharmaceuticals manufacturer targets a 9-10% annual growth rate. Novartis’ Chairman said the whole market is complaining of the currency shortage since it relies mostly on imports for its inputs. (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS + ICT

NTRA could fine TE for switching customers’ ISPs without informing them
NTRA said it is assessing imposing fines on Telecom Egypt (TE) for having switched LinkADSL customers to TE Data without customers’ prior knowledge. The switch took place as TE was replacing its copper wire infrastructure with fibre optic cables. Link is accusing TE of monopolistic practices and is asking the government to intervene to restore balance to the market. (Read in Arabic)

Mobinil’s general assembly ratifies Beltone’s valuation of the Egyptian Company for Mobile Tower Services
Mobinil’s general assembly ratified Beltone’s valuation of the Egyptian Company for Mobile Tower Services at EGP 900 mn to EGP 1 bn, ahead of divesting it to Eaton Towers. The assembly also approved an agreement to sell 2,000 towers in the Red Sea, Upper Egypt and Delta governorates to Eaton Towers. The sale and 15-year lease-back agreement that will see Eaton manage the towers for Mobinil is the first agreement of its kind in Egypt. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Bombardier, Mitsubishi, Rotem compete for contract to upgrade trains on second Cairo Metro line
Mitsubishi, Bombardier, and Rotem have responded to a tender issued to upgrade trains on Cairo Metro’s second line, said Khaled Sabra, Managing Director of the Egyptian Company for Metro Management and Operation. The company has formed a plan for the complete upgrade of line two, including installing air conditioning into the trains at an investment cost of EUR 341 mn. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development will vote on Wednesday on granting a EUR 100 mn loan to the company, added Sabra. The company plans on using the loan to buy 13 new locomotives as well as maintenance on the Second Line. (Read in Arabic)

Cabinet did not discuss raising metro ticket prices, Transport Minister says
The cabinet did not discuss raising the prices of Cairo Metro tickets, Transport Minister Saad El Geyoushi said. This refutes news circulated suggesting that a price increase was in the offing. El Geyoushi also added that a proposal to rescind the increases of fees in ports has also not yet been presented to the cabinet. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

EFG Hermes implies that rumors on selling Crédit Libanais are false
Media reports claiming EFG Hermes is selling its majority stake in Lebanese lender Crédit Libanais are false, Al Mal reports, quoting the firm as urging investors to rely on its disclosures and not market chatter. The company added that any decision to sell assets will only be taken upon a close examination of an offer to ensure that it is in the interest of shareholders. Media reports had circulated that QNB Group, Mikati Group—owned by former Lebanese Prime Minister Naguib Mikati—and another unnamed Lebanese financial institution had made an offer to buy Crédit Libanais. EFG Hermes had bought a 65% stake in the bank back in 2010 for USD 542 mn. (Read in Arabic)

MIDOR, Gas Cool consider shelving IPO plans
MIDOR and Gas Cool are reportedly considering abandoning plans to list of the EGX, according to Al Mal. Prime Minister Sherif Ismail had announced in August that an investment bank will be hired to manage the listing before the end of 3Q2015, but no action was taken since then. MIDOR’s Chairman said EGPC will be responsible of taking action and announcing if there is any change in plans. On the other hand, Petroneel said there are no changes in its plans to go public. (Read in Arabic)

CBE gives preliminary agreement to emergency loans to South Sinai investors
Incoming CBE Governor Tarek Amer gave a preliminary agreement to granting emergency loans to South Sinai investors, following a meeting in Sharm El Sheikh on Sunday, said South Sinai Investor Association head Hesham Ali. The loans will be directly proportional to the company’s capital as to provide liquidity for fixed and operational costs. The association has asked to be paid the loan in EGP, and pay it back in USD, to benefit from 4% interest rates on USD, as opposed to up to 16% on EGP. (Read in Arabic)

NBE, Banque Misr contract iScore to provide ATM credit information service
The National Bank of Egypt and Banque Misr have inked an agreement with iScore to provide credit information services through ATMs within the coming year, according to iScore Managing Director Mohamed Refaat El Hawshi. The project is aimed at spreading awareness on paying dues to financial institutions in a timely manner, and subsequently avoiding bad credit scores. (Read in Arabic)in Arabic)

LEGISLATION + POLICY

Administrative Court accepts motion to appeal articles of the Civil Society Law
The Cairo Administrative Court has accepted the Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights’ (ECESR) motion to appeal the validity of parts of the Civil Society Law that allow government bodies to dissolve civil society organizations. The issue will then be taken to the Supreme Constitutional Court to rule on whether these clauses are constitutional. The ECESR had taken up the case after Giza governor had dissolved the 6 April Movement. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

EBRD studying establishing USD 100 mn Egypt investment fund
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is studying establishing the Ezdehar Egypt Mid Cap Fund with capital of up to USD 100 mn, in cooperation with Ezdehar Management LLC. The fund will be inaugurated in February 2016, said Emad Barsoum, CEO of Ezdehar Management, becoming one of the largest SME funds in Egypt. Additionally, the EBRD is considering making an equity commitment of USD 20 mn to Ezdehar Egypt Mid-Cap Fund, but has yet to make a decision. (Read in Arabic)

NATIONAL SECURITY

Improvised bomb kills police officer in North Sinai: An IED killed a police officer and wounded two conscripts in the North Sinai city of Sheikh Zuweid. The incident happened as the officer’s’ patrol vehicle was in the Abu-Taweel area, Ahram Online reports.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Undeveloped land in Saudi Arabia will be taxed at 2.5% per annum from now on. The Saudi cabinet imposed the tax on “on all empty land dedicated for residential or commercial-residential use inside the urban boundaries.” Bloomberg said “the tax will be applied gradually ‘and with the necessary controls to ensure the fair application of the fine and prohibit evading payment.’”

The de facto leader of Germany’s Jewish community has called for a cap on the number of Middle East refugees his country accepts, noting they are arriving from a part of the world known with cultures known for their “hate towards Jews and intolerance are fixed components.” The story, based on an interview Joseph Schuster granted the newspaper Welt, is making headlines in the Financial Times and The Algemeiner in English.

As China’s Workforce Dwindles, the World Scrambles for Alternatives“: The second installment in the WSJ’s 2050 Demographic Destiny piece is back. This time: A look at the decline of China’s workforce. The visually stunning story looks at how the we’re entering a “new chapter in the history of globalization, where automation is king, nearness to market is crucial and the lives of workers and consumers around the world are once again scrambled.” If we were in charge of the Egyptian economy this morning, we’d be reading this story — and looking at how to play on our proximity to Europe as well as how to make better use of robotics in medium-weight, medium-tech industries.

BY THE NUMBERS
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USD CBE auction (Monday, 24 November): 7.7301 (unchanged since Wednesday, 11 November)
USD parallel market (Monday, 24 November): 8.55 (-0.02 from Wednesday, 18 November, Reuters)

EGX30 (Monday): 6451.32 (-2.36%)
Turnover: EGP 507.8 mn
EGX 30 year-to-date: -27.73%

THE MARKET ON MONDAY: The EGX30 slide 2.4% yesterday to close at 6,451 points, nearing its November 17 two-year low of 6,407 points. Index heavyweight CIB, used by foreign investors to exit the Egyptian market through its GDRs, bore the brunt of the fall as it plunged 6.4%. OTMT and Global Telecom also slid, losing 7.6% and 6.0%, respectively. At a market turnover of EGP 507.9m, foreign investors were the sole net sellers. Major GCC indexes also fell (Tadawul -0.7%, DFM -1.1%, Qatar -1.5%), tracking Brent crude futures, which lost 2.1%. Globally, dollar-denominated commodity prices fell on worries over faltering demand from China and as the USD hit a seven-month high versus the euro.

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP – 54.9 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP + 51.6 mn
Local: Net Long | EGP + 3.3 mn

Retail: 59.6% of total trades | 65.2% of buyers | 54.1% of sellers
Institutions: 40.4% of total trades | 34.8% of buyers | 45.9% of sellers

Foreign: 22.6% of total | 17.2% of buyers | 28.0% of sellers
Regional: 9.4% of total | 14.4% of buyers | 4.3% of sellers
Domestic: 68.0% of total | 68.4% of buyers | 67.7% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

Pharos has launched a new occasional report with its view on individual stocks that have strong upward potential. This report will be intermediate-to-long-term in nature and expected to serve long-term investors more than speculators. The market is still in its intermediate-term downtrend, and we still expect this trend to continue to the 5,800-6,000 area. We believe, however, that during the next expected downward leg, important chances will emerge and the bottoming formation will probably be clearer.

Since there is always a lead and lag time among different sectors and stocks, bottoms do not always come in sync; some stocks will bottom before others, some sectors will show outperformance and more resilience to market declines. This product will help investors find such stocks from a longer-term perspective.

One of the stocks that has probably begun to find its bottom is MOIL. The stock is showing major positive divergences on the weekly chart that hint of a potential major rise. Tap here to read the chart.

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WTI: USD 41.93 (+0.43%)
Brent: USD 44.99 (+0.36%)
Gold: USD 1,069.30 / troy ounce (+0.23%)

TASI:  7,149.61 (-0.41%)
ADX: 4,250.38 (-0.01%)
DFM: 3,255.14 (-1.05%)
KSE Weighted Index: 396.07 (+0.50%)
QE: 10,675.74 (-1.48%)
MSM: 5,762.11 (-0.34%)

 

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