Tuesday, 10 November 2015

Does a deal to clear goods through ports in EGP at 110% of purchase value imply the CBE is eyeing a 10% devaluation?

TL;DR

Devaluation watch: Does a customs clearance agreement mean the central bank is implying the EGP is overvalued by 10%? (Speed Round)

Tarek El Molla appears to set a five-year timeline for energy subsidy phase-out (Speed Round)

NBE, Banque Misr net a combined EGP 8.2 bn in deposits with 12.5% interest on CDs (Speed Round)

Apache to mount a takeover defense after receiving unsolicited bid (Speed Round)

Latest on the Diab + Bahgat cases (Speed Round, Egypt in the News)

Alstom inks EUR 190 mn Cairo Metro infrastructure contracts (Infrastructure)

Details of EGP 100 bn in transport contracts to be tendered this fiscal year will be unveiled today (What We’re Tracking Today + Infrastructure)

A Jordanian murder mystery? Salti sisters, fixtures of the kingdom’s business community, found dead (Speed Round)

By the Numbers + How much does the government owe the Central Bank?

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi will head to Riyadh on Tuesday to participate in the Summit for South American and Arab Countries, according to AMAY. El Sisi will meet with King Salman bin Abdel Aziz during the visit. All South American countries and Arab countries will participate in the summit, except for Syria.

The Transport Ministry will announce at a press conference today the headline details of some EGP 100 bn in new transport projects to be tendered during FY2015-16, Transportation Minister Saad El Geyoushi said. (See more in Industry News)

The conference Leasing: a Catalyst promoting national projects and SMEs will take place today.

Also today: The Second Egyptian-Lebanese Business Forum.

The Arab Steel Summit kicks-off in Sharm El Sheikh today, reports Al-Ahram. Over 500 steel company executives are expected to attend the event, which will run until Wednesday.

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

The 37th Cairo International Film Festival will run between 11-20 November.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Ibrahim Eissa opened his program on Al Kahera Wal Nas with a discussion on the recent arrests of prominent Egyptian businessman Salah Diab and human rights activist and journalist Hossam Bahgat. The host began by explaining to viewers how these arrests have had a detrimental impact on Egypt from both an economic and political standpoint.

Eissa: “A country’s reputation is everything. The way in which a country projects itself can result in bns of USD in investments and can attract mns of tourists. Conversely, damage to a country’s image can have a disastrous effect on it. A country’s image is shaped by various factors, among them being a country’s politics and acceptance of democratic principles… The manner in which Salah Diab and Hossam Bahgat were arrested is just one in a series of incidents that have tarnished Egypt’s image abroad. These actions make foreigners believe Egypt has not changed — that we are still stuck in the Egypt of 24 January, 2011.”

The comments echoed those Eissa made the night before last: “Anyone with a conscience would find it difficult to witness Salah Diab’s arrest… The manner in which he was arrested proves Egypt has not changed since 24 January 2011 and that the security apparatus can still operate with impunity… Is Salah Diab a terrorist? If not, then why was he treated this way? Why did masked security forces break into the house of a 70-year old man in the middle of the night? The official reason is that he [and his son] were allegedly in possession of unlicensed weapons. However, this is unlikely to be the real reason. Security forces intended to humiliate Diab that night. They broke into his home, entered his bedroom with his wife asleep in bed, and escorted him out of his home like a criminal. They then made sure to photograph his arrest and distribute it across media outlets…. Diab owns the single most important private daily newspaper in Egypt. How is what happened to him any different than what Erdogan does to journalists in his country? By arresting Diab this way, security forces effectively told members of the business community that they do not care for them and that any infraction they commit, however small, could result not only in their arrest, but in public humiliation.”

Eissa then turned his attention to President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s decision to allocate EGP 1 bn of the Tahya Masr fund to the development of sewage networks in Beheira and Alexandria, describing it as a “positive step.” He continued: “We must try to make the most out of the crises we are facing. Now is the time to make improvements to our tourism and infrastructure sectors.” Nonetheless, Eissa sharply criticized the Council of Ministers for its inability to deliver results, particularly in infrastructure, without the leadership of the president. “This form of governance, the one that relies on the president to do everything, has only produced negative results,” said the host.

Monday night’s episode of Hona El Assema was in essence a telephone fundraiser for the Tahya Masr Fund. For over two hours, host Lamis El Hadidy exhorted viewers to make donations to the fund, describing it as a “national duty.” “I ask that everyone make donations to the Tahya Masr fund. Consider it takaful or zakat. We [Egyptians] are facing challenges that require us to stand by one another. We cannot abandon our compatriots when they are facing such dire straits… We cannot begin work on new projects before we are able to provide Egypt’s villagers with dignified lives,” said El Hadidy.

Banque Misr Chairman Mohammed El Etreby telephoned-in midway through the episode, informing viewers that three state owned banks — Banque Misr, Banque du Caire, and the National Bank of Egypt — had agreed to donate EGP 50 mn each to the fund.

Rania Badawi began Al Qahera Al Youm with a discussion on the rumored gubernatorial shake-up, which prevailing wisdom holds will now take place shortly following parliamentary elections. “Governors will be selected based on their ability to handle flooding and other natural disasters,” said Badawi. Shortly afterward, lead host Amr Adeeb shifted the focus of the program to coverage of the ongoing relief efforts in the Beheira village of Afouna near Wadi El Natroun.

Adeeb: “Today, Egyptian Steel and the Orman Charity Organization began the relief effort in Afouna. Trucks loaded with food, blankets, and pharmaceuticals arrived and provided relief to Afouna, a village that few people would be able to locate on the map. They helped their Egyptian brothers. They provided help to a village that the Egyptian government could not reach.”

Egyptian Steel CEO Mohammed Abu Hashima called-in with additional details on the relief effort. “Providing relief to Afouna is a national duty… We aim to rebuild the village within 50 days.”

Some businessmen have transferred their wealth abroad -Wael El Ebrashy: On his nightly program “At 10 pm” on Dream TV, anchor Wael El Ebrashy claimed, according to unnamed source, that “certain parties” have convinced some Egyptian businessmen to transfer their capital abroad for fear of potential security problems with Egypt’s business environment, Youm7 reports. Ebrashy attributed such claims to “foreign conspiracies.”

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Importers will be allowed to clear goods stalled in port through customs after paying in EGP 110% of their value, Federation of Egyptian Industries Chairman Mohamed El Sewedy said, according to Al Borsa. He added that banks will sort out FX-denominated payments in the future, which makes us wonder: Does this mean there is an implicit agreement between importers, the banks, and the CBE that the EGP is overvalued by c. 10%? El Sewedy said paying 10% extra to clear the goods is better than “having factories halt operations completely.” Supporting importers further still, the CBE will inject USD 4 bn into the system to provide liquidity to clear critical imports, he noted, according to Amwal Al Ghad. The CBE had already pumped USD 1.8 bn in the last week to help clear the import backlog, he added. El Sewedy also said the Ministry of Finance is earmarking an extra EGP 1.3 bn to be injected into the export support fund, bringing its total value to EGP 5 bn, Amwal Al Ghad noted. In addition, some business sectors could be exempted from the foreign currency deposit limits, the CBE reportedly hinted. A source at the Federation of Egyptian Industries told Al Shorouk that senior central bank officials understand some of the manufacturers’ concerns and could allow them some flexibility that could support their operations and promote economic growth.

Did Tarek El Molla just set a five-year timeline for the reduction of energy subsidies? After months of official silence amid calls for the government to further cut energy subsidies amid falling oil prices, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla suggests in an interview with the FT (paywall) that there’s a five-year timeline for cuts. The FT quotes El Molla as saying: “‘We have saved billions of dollars in the last year,’ Tarek El Molla … said of reductions in fuel subsidies from USD 9 bn in the fiscal year that ended in June to a projected USD 7.7 bn for the same period next year. ‘Over five years we will rationalise this further,’ he added.” The salmon-colored media outlet spoke with El Molla during President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s visit last week to London.

Banque Misr and the National Bank of Egypt have together landed a total of EGP 8.2 bn in new deposits since their 12.5% interest three-year certificates of deposit launched on Sunday, according to a Youm7 story quoting the chairmen of the two institutions.

Apache Corp, the largest petroleum producer in Egypt, said it is working with Goldman Sachs to mount a takeover defense after it received an unsolicited bid, Bloomberg was informed. U.S.-based Apache rejected the initial offer, but it is still unclear whether talks will resume or not. Bloomberg was neither able to reach Apache or Goldman Sachs for comment, and the potential buyer remains unidentified. We reported yesterday that Apache Corp has announced that it retained its position as Egypt’s largest oil and gas producer after bringing gross production levels back to the peaks of 2011 and 2012. The company is one of the biggest leaseholders in the Permian Basin in western Texas and it also explores in Gulf of Mexico, Canada, and other shale basins in the U.S.

Rumors about delaying VAT untrue, Tax Authority chief says: Abdel Moneim Matar, the head of the Tax Authority, denied reports that the implementation of the VAT will be delayed, Youm7 said. He also stopped short of saying when the levy would come into effect, saying that deciding on when the tax hits the markets is beyond his purview, as his authority has no legislative power. The rumors to which he refers was a direct quote attributed to him by Al Mal on Sunday saying the decision on implementing VAT would be deferred to the new parliament.

M&A Watch: Wadi Degla Real Estate Developments will complete its EGP 80 mn acquisition of a 60% stake in British Columbia Canadian International School (BCCIS) group owned by businessman Mustafa Tawfik within a month, Al Borsa reports. Wadi Degla will first acquire BCCIS Group’s UAE franchise which will then take 60% of the Egypt business. (Read in Arabic)

Juhayna has invested EGP 220 mn in its dairy segment this year, said the company’s head of research and development Amr Kandil in an interview. The investments were to grow capacity at its dairy farm, which has imported 4,000 heifer over the past months. The company is expected to double that number over the coming years and also plans to invest EGP 600 mn to reclaim 6,000 feddans for its dairy farms, said Kandil.

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail convened a meeting of the cabinet economic group on Monday to discuss raising government expenditures on infrastructure, healthcare and education. Al Mal says the sectors demand new investment in part to address the impact of decades of underinvestment. Ismail also called for a reduction of the budget deficit through the slimming-down and restructuring of public corporations. The PM will also look to encourage investment from the private sector. The meeting explored better organizing industrial zones through potential amendments to the Special Economic Zones Act.

The Finance Ministry has formed a working group to devise a strategy to manage Egypt’s public debt in the medium-term, according to a decision published in Monday’s issue of the Official Gazette. The group will be headed by the Assistant Finance Minister for Economic and Monetary Policy.

Update on the Hossam Bahgat case: Bahgat’s defense team filed a motion with the military prosecutor’s office to disclose the location at which Bahgat is being held, according to Doaa Mustafa, who heads the legal division of the Egyptian Commission for Rights & Freedoms. She added that the armed forces had denied repeated requests to reveal where he is being kept, in addition to denying him access to medication and other amenities sent by his attorneys and family. (The story does not specify the condition for which Bahgat requires treatment.)

…Response from the UN, Egyptian human rights organizations: During a briefing on Monday, United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon noted “with concern of the detention of Egyptian human rights defender Hossam Bahgat … This is just the latest in a series of detentions of human rights defenders and others that are profoundly worrying to the Secretary-General.” According to the statement, the UN boss “strongly believes that pluralism and vibrant civil society are key for achieving long-term stability in the country.” The Egyptian Initiative for Personal Rights, an organization Bahgat founded, released a statement calling for his release. Seventeen Egyptian NGOs signed the document.

Global temperatures will rise this year to more than one degree above pre-industrial levels, the U.K.’s weather office said yesterday, putting the world half-way toward what scientists believe is a key tipping point that could have disastrous effects for the planet. The story is front-page news in British outlets as diverse as the FT, the BBC and the Independent. Canada’s CBC says that “climate change will push 100 million people into ‘extreme poverty’ by 2030,” while the Guardian warns that Europe can look forward to “deserts in Spain, snowless ski resorts in Italy, deforestation in Germany — and seas that keep on rising.” Climate-change deniers in the United States, meanwhile, slumber on in the arms of Morpheus, arms wrapped around their blankies and protected by earplugs, sleep masks, and tin-foil hats.

Update on the Salah Diab case: The EGX has received notice from the Prosecutor General’s Office that Salah Diab’s assets, along with those of 15 other businessmen including Mahmoud El Gammal, have been frozen, Al Masry Al Youm reported. An “unnamed government body” has filed an official request to inspect the tax records of companies owned by Diab. The request to the Tax Authority was sent through the Finance Ministry, Al Borsa reports, citing an unnamed source. Market reaction: “Definitely the arrest of a famous businessman created a lot of negative sentiment in the market,” Ahram Online quotes Acumen Securities head Osama Mourad as saying.

Meanwhile, high-profile lawyer Fareed El Deeb, who is representing Diab, said the charges against his client were fabricated. Either the Muslim Brotherhood satellite television channel Sharq didn’t tell El Deeb who they were when they called him for a statement, or they did and he didn’t pay attention, because the channel has an audio exchange which they allege is with El Deeb asking him about the case. “Salah Diab’s case involving possession of two unlicensed assault rifles is fabricated,” El Deeb claimed. “They are pressuring him to force [his newspaper] Al Masry Al Youm to stop its criticism.” (Watch in Arabic, running time: 1:58)

Gamal Al Gamal was barred from writing his regular op-ed in AMAY, according to an Arabic post on his Facebook page on Sunday, Masrawy reports. AMAY Editor-in-Chief Mohamed Saleh said that the decision to bar Al Gamal is “a point of order in the editorial policy of the newspaper.” Meanwhile, state television news host Azza El Hinnawy and her crew were suspended for “lack of neutrality” on Monday following her criticism of the president, Ahram Online reports.

Trial balloon: 23-year old photojournalist and activist Esraa El Taweel’s lawyers denied in a statement published in Arabic domestic media reports which originated from the state news agency MENA, citing unnamed sources who alleged El Taweel had confessed to having been recruited to assassinate an unnamed state official on a suicide mission using a bomb hidden in her camera. Her lawyers go on to say the first they’d heard about the alleged confession was in Monday’s newspapers. The story claims El Taweel was approached in 2013 by a woman associated with the Muslim Brotherhood, who offered El-Taweel the chance to avenge the death of her friend Asmaa El Beltagy, who was killed in the forced dispersal of Rabaa, by having El Taweel pose as a wedding photographer and detonate a bomb hidden inside her camera. The article then goes on to allege that a friend planted spy cameras in an unspecified building, without being clear about how El Taweel was involved, other than saying she was a “participant in the whole process.” The original report then concludes once its author hit the 700-word mark.

Mystery still surrounds the death of Jordanian sisters Soraya and Jumana Salti, whose bodies were found at the base of a building in Amman on Friday, according to Al Arabiya. “Soraya had once led Injaz Al Arab, an education group that promotes entrepreneurship across the Arab world. Jumana was a UAE-based director at professional services firm PricewaterhouseCoopers,” Al Arabiya notes. The Jordanian General Security Forces said that investigations so far do not indicate any suspected criminal act was involved but a reporter is citing a close contact who said the deceased did not show any signs of depression, casting doubts on reports of suicide. From the UAE’s The National: “Police suggested yesterday that the sisters committed suicide by jumping from the building in Jwiedeh, a rundown area of the Jordanian capital on Friday. Detectives found a handwritten note from one of the women addressed to her parents. But friends and relatives rejected this, prompting speculation that the two women were murdered.”

Global temperatures will rise this year to more than one degree above pre-industrial levels, the U.K.’s weather office said yesterday, putting the world half-way toward what scientists believe is a key tipping point that could have disastrous effects for the planet. The story is front-page news in British outlets as diverse as the FT, the BBC and the Independent. Canada’s CBC says that “climate change will push 100 million people into ‘extreme poverty’ by 2030,” while the Guardian warns that Europe can look forward to “deserts in Spain, snowless ski resorts in Italy, deforestation in Germany — and seas that keep on rising.” Climate-change deniers in the United States, meanwhile, slumber on in the arms of Morpheus, arms wrapped around their blankies and protected by earplugs, sleep masks, and tin-foil hats.

ICYMI- Qatar is opening a slavery museum. Apparently, it’s not the site of the 2022 FIFA World Cup. The Atlantic Council has the story.


SPOTLIGHT on the executive regulations to the Civil Service Act

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail ratified the executive regulations of the Civil Service Act, a decision published on Sunday in the Official Gazette (a copy appears here in Arabic), with the law having gone into effect on Monday. The primary features of the regulations include:

  • Promotions will be won on the basis of both seniority and qualifications. Promotions on the basis of seniority will be contingent on the employee’s evaluation and the time spent in grade, while promotions based on qualifications will depend on both a strong evaluation and on successfully completing training for the more senior position.
  • Evaluations will be conducted on a biannual basis through a 360 degree feedback system.
  • Raises will be offered based on the ranking system outlined by the law. The executive regulations establish a separate raise based on academic qualifications

The executive regulations attempt to add a measure of business-type practices to the public sector to encourage performance and establish some semblance of a meritocracy. While they do not eliminate promotions based on seniority, it opens an avenue for high fliers to win promotion through the “qualifications” stream, through the adoption of new evaluation metrics. These have been amended to include input from the entire team, so as to not have employees beholden to superiors. However, superiors are the ones who have to issue the final report, so they retain certain powers.

Tax Authority workers protested the enactment of the law on Monday by staging a sit-in in front of the Press Syndicate, Ahram Online reports. Protesters renewed demands to have the Authority be considered an independent authority outside the jurisdiction of the Civil Service Law. Disgruntled civil servants have argued that the new wage structure and bonus ceilings might not keep up with inflation. Protesters also continue to insist that the law empowers superiors over subordinates who can now determine arbitrarily those qualified to receive bonuses and raises. Mohamed Wahab Allah, secretary-general of the Egyptian Federation of Trade Unions voiced that he will fight the Law, specifically the bonuses, vacations, maternity leave and sick leave clauses. He did urge for a peaceful dialogue and the issue and advocated against protests, Youm7 reports.


UPDATE on the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268

A Russian audit of Sharm airport’s security will take two weeks, and flights to Egypt will not resume until then, according to deputy head of Russia’s Association of Tourist Operators Dmitry Gorin on Russian News Service radio on Monday, as reported by Russian news agency TASS. Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev also emphasized that the suspension of flights would take time, according to remarks carried by state-owned Rossiyskaya Gazeta newspaper and picked up by Bloomberg: “The chance it was a terrorist act, obviously, remains as an explanation for what happened … That’s why this decision was made [to halt flights] on the basis of recommendations and materials prepared by the anti-terrorism committee,” he said. “Let’s not indulge in illusions, this won’t be a short period,” Medvedev was quoted as saying at a meeting with his deputies.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has confirmed that London passed on to Moscow “certain information” regarding the plane crash, Sputnik reported. Peskov said he could not comment on the nature of information but insisted it was “too early” to say that the crash was caused by a terror attack.

Reuters reports that Egypt has not replied to an offer of FBI assistance in the investigation.

More speculatively: an unnamed investigator is 90% sure that a bomb downed the Russian plane, Reuters reported. An Egyptian member of the investigation team is saying that the noise heard in the final second of the cockpit recording was caused by a bomb. The newswire says the investigator refused to elaborate on other possibilities, but from Saturday’s press conference, lead investigator Ayman Al Muqaddam said it could be “a fuel explosion, metal fatigue in the plane or lithium batteries overheating.” An unnamed U.S. official topped the Reuters leak saying it was 99.9% certain that it was a bomb that brought down the plane, CNN said.

Bloomberg suggests the crash will add to pressure to devalue the EGP and has “potentially ruinous implications for Egypt’s tourism industry.” Bloomberg says Egypt’s economy is “ill-positioned to lose this vital source of hard currency.” The Russian plane crash “will only add to pressure on the pound and make devaluation more likely,” Capital Economics’ Jason Tuvey warned. A risk that comes with the weakening currency is an increased cost of imported goods that leads to an acceleration of inflation, Bloomberg added.

Downplaying the impact on tourism and the economy, Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou expects Russia to reverse its decision to halt flights to and from Sharm El Sheikh in the second half of December. Al Shorouk adds that Zaazou expects the state could move to defer tax collection from companies operating in the tourism sector and stressed that the CBE will continue its support as well. Zaazou held crisis meetings with top ministry officials on Monday. He will then fly to Sharm next Sunday to meet with business owners to reassure them and to discuss deferring taxes, improving insurance coverage, and increasing power supplies, Al Mal reports.

The Foreign Affairs Ministry said the Egyptian Embassy in Moscow reached an agreement with Russian tour operators to delay reimbursing them for cancelled trips to Egypt. The Russian side has agreed to wait for reimbursement until flights to Sharm El Sheikh resume.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Immediately behind the Metrojet disaster, the Bahgat case is second-most prominent story out of Egypt in the international press this morning. Your starting point for how the case is impacting Egypt’s image on the global stage should be BuzzFeed’s Borzou Daragahi (late of the Financial Times), who provides ample context as he breaks news that Bahgat was offered a deal: “Sign a document promising never again to write about Egypt’s armed forces and walk out of the military intelligence office in eastern Cairo that very moment.” The New York Times, meanwhile, has devoted its fortnightly chastising of Egypt to the topic with “Egypt’s Brazen Crackdown on Critics,” writing: “Mr. Bahgat has always been cleareyed about the risks of his line of work. But that has never stopped him. A jail cell probably could, for a while, if world leaders continue to respond to Egypt’s abuses with a shrug.” Vox is also getting in on the game with “An activist once called the last true liberal in Egypt was arrested by the military on Sunday,” as is the Guardian: “Anger as Egypt detains campaigning journalist.”

Elsewhere, the New York Times‘ Open Source blog also dissects the Bahgat case, noting that he was forced to spend the night in military detention on Sunday because prosecutors were yet to decide whether to issue a detention order or to release him. The article goes on to capture the flurry of social media reactions, even including a link to the BBC interview with President Abdel Fattah El Sisi saying, “No one is oppressed in Egypt,” just two days before the arrest. Joshua Stacher, a political scientist at Kent State University and the author of “Adaptable Autocrats: Regime Power in Egypt and Syria,” argued that the arrest was evidence of the failure of American and British attempts to engage with the government of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi.

Amr Darrag bellydances his way through another Washington Post op-ed.

The Guardian continues to insist on calling Bassem Youssef the Egyptian Jon Stewart, despite it being incredibly tired and condescending. Anyway. The Guardian notes that Stewart is now in Dubai, having finished his whatever it was that he was doing at Harvard. Also the face he’s doing in the picture is dumb. We don’t know what else the article said. (Read)

WORTH READING

438 Days: A fisherman’s true survival at sea. Investigative journalist and author Jonathan Franklin publishes an excerpt from his book in The Guardian. “In November 2012, Salvador Alvarenga went fishing off the coast of Mexico. Two days later, a storm hit and he made a desperate SOS. It was the last anyone heard from him — for 438 days… Alvarenga let his imagination run wild in order to keep sane. He imagined an alternative reality… He was mastering the art of turning his solitude into a Fantasia-like world.” (Read)

DIPLOMACY

Ethiopia has violated international standards –Egypt’s irrigation ministry
Ethiopia cannot receive international loans to finance the construction of the Renaissance Dam due to its violation of international standards, Alaa Yassin, an advisor to the Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, said on Monday on Al Hayah TV. Yassin said that Ethiopia’s has violated international standards by claiming that its dam has no bearing on the countries downstream. “There will be no international financing for Ethiopia,” Yassin explained. “No appeals for arbitration can occur without the consent of the parties involved.” (Read in Arabic)
Egyptian water experts describe ninth round of Renaissance negotiations as a failure
Several Egyptian water experts claimed that the ninth round of negotiations that took place this week was a “failure.” Former Water Resources Minister Mahmoud Abu Zeid described the situation as “dangerous,” claiming that Ethiopia has announced it construction is 47 percent complete, AMAY reports. No consensus was reached on disputes pertaining Dutch and French technical studies, and Ethiopia has been adamant to allow the French consulting office B.R.L to carry the technical studies alone, according to AMAY. Alaa Yassin, advisor to the Water Resources Minister, stressed that Egypt would agree to any alternative being offered, with the condition that Ethiopia conduct effective environmental and hydraulic studies to be implemented by the three involved countries. (Read in Arabic)

ENERGY

Enppi to resubmit study on pipeline importing gas from Aphrodite field
The Engineering for the Petroleum and Process Industries Co. (Enppi) will amend and resubmit to the Cypriot government its feasibility study on a deep water pipeline importing gas to Egypt from the Aphrodite field, said EGAS Chairman Khaled Abdel Badei. This move aims to accommodate “minor” objections by the government of Cyprus ahead of the project’s launch. The project aims to import 700 mn cubic feet of gas per day by 2018. Officials from the Petroleum Ministry anticipate a large role for the private sector in importing gas from Cyprus. (Read in Arabic)

Abdul Latif Jameel Finance to compete for renewable energy projects in Egypt over the coming year
Saudi-based investment firm Abdul Latif Jameel Finance plans to compete in tenders for renewable energy projects worth a combined USD 900 mn next year. Its primary vehicle for the Egyptian market will be Fotowatio Renewable Ventures (FRV), which it acquired from Denham Capital Management LP and Qualitas Venture Capital. FRV is already bidding on a 250 MW wind power plant and a 200 MW solar power plant worth USD 500 mn and USD 400 mn, respectively, said Abdul Latif Jameel’s head of business development Mohannad Makhlouf. (Read in Arabic)

Petroleum Ministry say it will sign 12 new agreements in the upcoming period
The oil ministry will sign 12 new gas agreements in the coming period, Al Ahram reports, citing remarks made by Oil Minister Tarek El Molla at an industry conference in Abu Dhabi. Al Molla said that the Petroleum Ministry has signed 62 agreements over the past two years with IOCs for investments worth a combined USD 15 bn. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Alstom signs signalling and infrastructure contract for Cairo Metro line 3
Alstom announced in a statement it signed two contracts with the National Authority for Tunnels to supply a signalling and telecommunications system and infrastructure for the third phase of line 3 of the Cairo Metro. Both contracts are worth EUR 190 mn, Alstom said in its press release. “Alstom will provide its signalling solution Urbalis including Iconis at the operating control centre as well as point machines and station signalling equipment.” It will also supply “electromechanical equipment including power substations to feed the third rail, ventilation system and elevators / escalators.” (Read)

State to tender EGP 100 bn in transport projects this fiscal year
The Ministry of Transportation will tender for projects in the transportation sector worth a combined EGP 100 bn during FY2015-16, says Transportation Minister Saad El Geyoushi. The details of these projects will be announced in a press conference today, and include the latest agreements made by President Abdel Fattah El Sisi on his latest visit to China, including the train line between Cairo / 10 Ramadan / Belbes funded by the Export Import Bank of China. (Read in Arabic)

Transportation Authority in talks to restructure railway system; plans to raise metro ticket prices next year
The Transportation Ministry is in talks with companies from China, Germany, and Korea to participate in a plan to restructure the Egyptian railway network. According to Transportation Minister Saad El Geyoushi, the Ministry is looking at diversifying its resources and would consider contracting with an international partner to help manage, operate, and maintain the rail network. El Geyoushi did not give further details about the initiative. He added that the Ministry is planning to raise the Metro ticket prices next year after having introduced 20 new air-conditioned trains and improving service. Five air-conditioned trains have already been added to the first metro line, with two more currently undergoing final tests, and an eighth due to be delivered from Korea this month. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

GASC to supply imported wheat to private sector to control domestic prices
The Supplies Ministry said it signed a deal with the chamber of grain industries to supply the private sector with imported wheat, Reuters reported. The move is to ensure that prices of grains and commodities are kept under control. “The chamber of grain industries will receive requests from flour producers for wheat and present them to GASC at the beginning of each month and then GASC will determine the prices of the wheat and whether they will be delivered directly from the port or from the various wheat silos inside the country,” Reuters explained. (Read)

MANUFACTURING

Indian garments manufacturer looks to invest USD 100 mn, says bureaucracy an obstacle
EMBEE International, an Indian garments manufacturer with operations in Ismailia, said it earmarked USD 100 mn to finance expansions in Egypt, according to CEO Sanjay Khushalani. The group is looking to start growing cotton in Egypt and to build a spinning factory. Kushalini says EMBEE wants avoid shipping delays by growing its own inputs domestically. However, a number of factors are hindering the investment plans, he added, pointing to state bureaucracy and the lack of coordination between government entities in particular. Kushalini also said his company faces challenges disposing of industrial waste. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Health Ministry to issue tender to buy Sovaldi generics before year’s end
The Health Ministry will reportedly issue a tender to buy 375k packs of a generic formulation of hepatitis-C cure Sovaldi before January, a source said. The Ministry is looking to reduce the price it pays for the drug compared to the EGP 680 per pack it paid for the ones it purchased in a previous tender. The source added that the ministry is also finalising its assessment for how much of the drug it will require in 2016. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

Foster + Partners wins implementation of Maspero Triangle redesign project
The committee supervising the international project to redesign the Maspero Triangle announced on Sunday that Foster + Partners will implement the project, despite being the second candidate, following a decision to drop the first place finisher for undisclosed reasons. Informal Settlements Development Facility (ISDF) representative Soaad Naguib said the project had been welcomed by residents, which the committee took into account. (We were unable to find stories in the domestic press confirming this through interviews with Maspero Triangle residents.) (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS + ICT

ICT Ministry issues data hosting tender
The ICT Ministry issued a tender for data hosting, setting a 15 November deadline for submission of bids. The project aims to speed up the ministry’s IT infrastructure through the deployment of virtual private servers (VPS) to host data. The tender’s terms and conditions set the date for commencement of services at one month after a bid winner is selected, with a year contract to manage data hosting services. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Transportation investors want Ministry to reduce port services fees
The Egyptian Businessmen’s Association (EBA) renewed calls for the Transportation Ministry to reverse a policy instituted by the former minister to raise fees for port services, Al Borsa reports. The EBA also wants greater inclusion of the private sector in policy decisions, requesting that private sector membership be increased in the High Ports Council from its current two members. Adel Lamy, who heads the EBA’s transportation committee, suggested the formation of consultative council on pricing port services. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Chile looking to establish free-trade zone in Egypt
Chile will invite a technical team from Egypt’s Trade and Industry Ministry to discuss operating a free-trade zone in Egypt, Al Borsa reported. The volume of bilateral trade between the two countries is USD 30 mn currently, a “small figure” compared to what both countries aspire to, an official at the Chilean Foreign Ministry said. He added that a number of Chilean companies are already looking to invest in construction and infrastructure in Egypt, with fertiliser producers looking to export more to Egypt as well. (Read in Arabic)

NATIONAL SECURITY

Defense Minister meets with US Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus
Defense Minister Sedky Sobhy met with US Secretary of the Navy Ray Mabus on Monday, AMAY reports. The two discussed the delivery of two Fast Missile Craft warships, which represents a USD 1.1 bn investment in the relationship, according to a statement by the US Embassy in Cairo. Secretary Mabus was quoted as saying that the Americans are “working closely with the Egyptian military to support its fight against terrorism, to make the region safe and stable, and to ensure the free flow of commerce. Participation in exercises between our forces, such as Exercise Bright Star, will strengthen our relationship and help build interoperability between our forces.”

Security forces killed a man alleged to have been a top Wilayat Sina leader during an attempted arrest in Al-Marg, according to a Ministry of Interior statement, reported Reuters. The statement says security forces believe him to have been the leader of Ansar Beit Al-Maqdis (now known as Wilayat Sina) in Cairo and the Baharia Oasis. He was killed after opening fire on officers during the arrest.

ON YOUR WAY OUT

A Jordanian police officer killed two American military trainers and a South African contractor at a police facility near Amman. Two other Americans and four Jordanians were also wounded in the incident, CNN noted, before Jordanian security forces killed the shooter.

Nubian writer, translator and literary critic Khalil Kalfat passed away at the age of 74 on Monday, Al Ahram reports. Kalfat’s most notable works including Don Casmurro and Selections on Fantasy and Metaphysics: Stories, Articles and Poetry.

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail ordered the formation of a crisis and emergency committee to be led by the Cabinet’s Secretary General and include representatives from key ministries, AMAY reported. The committee is tasked with responding to any emergency situation throughout the country while providing necessary aid.

BY THE NUMBERS
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QUICK FACT: When the government’s expenditures exceed its revenues, it borrows the difference by issuing bills and bonds. When banks, corporations and individuals are no longer capable of buying bills and bonds, the government borrows from other countries and/or from the Central Bank of Egypt. As of end September 2015, the government owed the Central Bank a total over EGP 600bn.


USD parallel market (Sunday, 08 November): 7.9301 (unchanged since Sunday, 18 October)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 08 November): 8.50 (-0.03 from Thursday, 05 November)

EGX30 (Monday): 7138.81 (-2.84%)Turnover: EGP 620.7 mn (43% above the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -20.02%

Foreigners: Net Short | EGP -133.0 mn
Regional: Net Long | EGP +84.3 mn
Local: Net Long | EGP +48.7 mn

Retail: 54.1% of total trades | 66.6% of buyers | 41.5% of sellers
Institutions: 45.9% of total trades | 33.4% of buyers | 58.5% of sellers

Foreign: 29.0% of total | 18.3% of buyers | 39.7% of sellers
Regional: 9.5% of total | 16.3% of buyers | 2.7% of sellers
Domestic: 61.5% of total | 65.4% of buyers | 57.6% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

Facing the Moment of Truth 2

The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) and Banque Misr introduced 12.5%/annum 3Y deposits. The rate is almost 200 bps higher than the highest rates on the market up to last week. The hike on certificates of deposit is a typical prelude to a CBE interest rate hike. The surge in deposit rates at Egypt’s two largest banks will trigger corresponding moves by the larger commercial banks. The effect of this will be less liquidity but also a slightly higher value for the EGP. Given that most corporate debt is benchmarked to the corridor, the CBE may be forced to raise policy rates as early as December to maintain equilibrium in the rate structure.

Higher rates mean more pain to leveraged companies, higher required return rate, and lower equity valuations. If successful, investors may assign a higher weight to longer-term gain versus short-term pain. We are biased to conservatism and hence advise clients to remain cautious. Finally, if the ongoing interest rate defense is the opening scene of a meaningful devaluation (> 10%) or a full-fledged shift to a free float, then our bias towards EFG-Hermes Holding, Alex Containers, Oriental Weavers, South Valley Cement and Madinet Nasr Housing as top picks is maintained. Tap here for full background.
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