Tuesday, 13 October 2015
TL;DR
Using tariffs to curb luxury imports? (Speed Round)
Non-oil exports plunge 28% y-o-y in September (Speed Round)
Egyptian banks’ return to the international syndicated loan market “hampered by volatility, liquidity crunch” (Speed Round)
Cairo real estate buyers were bullish in 3Q2015, JLL report finds (Speed Round)
Gamal and Alaa are out — again (Speed Round)
Held without charge for wearing a t-shirt? (Worth Reading)
Al Mansour Automotive pumps EGP 700 mn into service centers (Automotive)
By the Numbers + A single chart that should keep you on guard
WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY
The Inaugural N Gage Debate tackling the African Tripartite Free-Trade Agreement gets underway this morning at the Four Seasons Nile Plaza Hotel, Garden City. If you’ve already registered and forgot your agenda, a copy is here (pdf). If you’re not going and need to get up to speed on Egypt-Africa trade, we recommend their overview report here (pdf).
Also today: The Economist Health Care Middle East and North Africa conference, Madinat Jumeirah Mina A’Salam Hotel, Dubai, UAE. View the official event page here.
WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK
PM Sherif Ismail will speak at the opening of the two-day Akhbar Al Youm Economic Conference on Wednesday, along with 14 other ministers drawn largely from the cabinet economic group, AMAY reports. The conference will feature a panels on monetary and financial policy, investment procedures, manufacturing and agricultural policies, transportation developments, social equity issues and the private sector, tourism, and real estate investment in Egypt.
Enterprise will be off on Thursday — we’re publishing tomorrow (Wednesday) and taking Thursday off for the Islamic New Year holiday, as we noted earlier this week. We’re going to enjoy a three-day weekend to spend time with family and work on some long-term stuff for all of you. We’ll be back on Sunday morning at the usual time.
LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS
Ibrahim Eissa: The Salafi craze, the National Council for Women, and the top 10 reasons why he thinks you shouldn’t sympathize with you Egyptians who become illegal migrants
Ibrahim Eissa begin his show on Al Kahera Wal Nas last night with a lengthy rant about the parliamentary elections, say the expected poor voter turnout — 10% according to polls cited by Eissa — will pave the way for Salafis (the “forces of darkness,” in Eissa-speak) to triumph in the elections. “We have institutions and a state that constantly showcases its political disconnect and failure,” Eissa said. “A host of candidates are being sycophantic toward President Abdel Fattah El Sisi in wanting to give him the powers of the parliament, which has turned voters away.” Eissa then went on rant against Salafis, claiming that Salafis are “playing by the Ikhwan game.”
Eissa further underscored his point about the failure of political institutions by reminding viewers that the National Council for Women, set to represent Egypt in the UN Women’s Conference next March, has yet to be established, despite a presidential decree last February that mandated its formation.
In the show’s next segment, Eissa claimed “terrorist acts” in Egypt have gradually decreased from January-September 2015 using four line graphs (no sources given) charting Cairo and the Delta region, Upper Egypt, and the Sinai Region. For each geographic area, attacks reportedly decreased over the nine-month period. (Eissa may be oversimplifying: reported terror incidents increased over the first six months of the year, statistics show, while the Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy’s (TIMEP) August security briefing notes a marked decrease in terrorist activity from June to August, the month of the most recently compiled and analyzed data, Download the report as a pdf.)
Eissa’s Top 10 Segment: Why we should not show sympathy for young people who become illegal migrants. Some of the more notable entries from the list:
10. They willingly violate local, national and international laws.
8. They bankrupt their families and their futures. “How can you afford to pay your smuggler EGP 50K? It’s not a matter of poverty,” Eissa said.
6. They accept humiliation from smugglers and security officials abroad.
5. They are largely without qualifications, skills and experience.
4. They’ll accept jobs abroad that would reject in Egypt.
Eissa’s Quote of the Day: “Egypt’s political scene lately is keen on showcasing its failures and disconnect, almost on a daily basis.”
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A MESSAGE FROM SODIC
New Managing Director takes helm at SODIC
SODIC, a leading Egyptian real estate developer, is pleased to announce that Eng. Magued Sherif has assumed his duties as the company’s new Managing Director at SODIC’s Cairo headquarters. Magued brings to SODIC deep experience in the sector, a proven international outlook, and an entrepreneurial passion for delivering growth.
Prior to joining SODIC, Magued held several leadership positions with prominent companies in the industry including Egypt Country Head and Properties Chief Executive Officer at Majid Al Futtaim Properties as well as General Manager and Senior Vice President at Palm Hills Developments for a 10-year period starting from the company’s inception. More recently Magued was Chief Executive Officer and Managing Director at Hyde Park Properties for Development from 2012-14. Hyde Park Properties for Development is the master developer for Hyde Park, a 6 mn square meter mixed-use development in New Cairo. Magued began his career as a Site Engineer with Orascom Construction Industries in 1986.
Click here to learn more about his personal track record.
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SPEED ROUND
As we noted earlier this week, measures to curb the import of luxury goods could soon be in the offing. Al Masry Al Youm published a list of the goods that might be blacklisted. Expect shortages in “luxuries” including nuts, pet food (yes, a luxury import according to some ‘very sound’ logic), apples (we kid you not) and “expensive” seafood (bye-bye, scallops and lobster tails). The paper does note that importing the goods on the list will be limited, and not banned entirely, as another piece quotes the head of the Customs Authority as saying that banning certain goods would be in violation of WTO and GATT agreements. What is the government going to do then? Increase the customs tariff rates to 30% from an average of 10-20% currently, AMAY says.
Prime Minister Sherif Ismail worked yesterday to get business on side with his five-point plan to address the FX crunch, meeting last night with chamber of commerce officials. Among the demands presented by chamber officials: Eliminating the cap on cash deposits the Central Bank of Egypt imposed in the run-up to the EEDC.
Non-petroleum exports plunged 28% year-on-year in September to USD 1.2 bn, the lowest performing month in all of 2015, as reported by Al Borsa. 9M15 exports fell 19% year-on-year to USD 13.8 bn, down from USD 17.2 bn, suggesting exporters are choking on an inability to source production inputs.
Moody’s issued a comment on Tuesday in response to last week’s news that foreign currency reserves fell for the third month in a row to USD 16.3 bn, saying that the drop in NIR was credit negative. The ratings agency is considering dropping Egypt’s credit rating below its current B3,according to reports in the domestic press, which also reports that Moody’s foresees lower fiscal support to Egypt from GCC economies going forward.
The CBE reports that Egypt’s foreign debt rose 4.3% to USD 48.1 bn during the 2014-15 fiscal year, up from USD 46.1 bn the preceding year, according to Al Borsa. According to figures from the CBE, Egypt’s debt to Paris Club creditor nations fell 40% to USD 2.2 bn, down from USD 3.6 bn in 2013-14 fiscal year.
Egyptian banks’ return to the international syndicated loan market is being “hampered by September’s global volatility and the growing liquidity crunch in the Middle East, which is pushing loan pricing higher,” Sandrine Bradley writes for Reuters. Banque Misr is looking to finalise a three-year USD 250 mn agreement that is being coordinated by Bahrain’s ABC Bank and Banque du Caire is on the market for a one-year USD 200 mn agreement being coordinated by Standard Chartered, and both are yet to finalise their agreements. “Although Egypt is proving challenging, bankers say they will still consider short-term loans for financial institutions in hard currency, but longer-dated, local currency loans are off the menu for now,” Reuters notes.
Arabian Cement shows interest in Qalaa Holdings’ cement assets: Arabian Cement may apparently be interested in bidding for Qalaa Holdings’ ASEC Minya cement plant and ASEC Ready Mix concrete distributor, assets on which Qalaa subsidiary ASEC Cement is in exclusive talks with Misr Qena Cement, which approved last week making a formal bid. Al Mal says Arabian Cement CEO Jose Maria Magrina could be interested in opening talks should the exclusivity period between ASEC Cement and Misr Qena end without a deal.
JLL’s Cairo Real Estate Market Overview for 3Q2015 came out yesterday showing that “all sectors of the Cairo real estate market exhibited positive performance and improved sentiment during Q3 2015, with the office market signalling the most growth.” The positive performance came even though prices have decreased in USD terms as the EGP lost value during the quarter. New Cairo continues to see the highest demand growth for office space and residential units. In the hospitality sector, hotel occupancy increased to an average of 53% by the end of August YTD from 41% a year earlier, at an average room rate of USD 105 per night. The shortage of affordable housing continues to be signalled by JLL as a concern. The landing page of the report is here.
El Sewedy wants to see limitations on parliamentary immunity: Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI) president Mohamed El Sewedy expressed concern over the number of businessmen running in the parliamentary elections and the propensity of past MPs to misuse their privilege of parliamentary immunity. He’s calling for new legislation that would allow for greater accountability and limit the use (or misuse) of parliamentary immunity. (Read in Arabic)
Oops, EGP 50 mn have “disappeared” from the Egyptian Museum: Egypt’s Administrative Prosecutor is opening up an investigation over the “disappearance” of EGP 50 mn that were granted by an American research center as well as “wasting” EGP 100 mn in building a 600 meter-long wall at the Grand Egyptian Museum’s site. Al Shorouk says the investigation is also spanning into mismanagement of EGP 9 mn after a scanning microscope was damaged after being left to overheat. Note: The article is unclear about the actual figures and goes back and forth between EGP and USD.
Alaa and Gamal Mubarak have completed their sentences in the “Presidential Palaces” case and have been ordered released. North Cairo Criminal Court made the ruling after accepting a submission from the brothers’ lawyers claiming the two had completed their three-year sentences on charges of embezzlement and were effectively being detained without charge, Al-Masry Al-Youm reports. The two still face charges of profiteering and market manipulation in the so-called Al Watany Bank of Egypt case, where the next hearing in the never-ending case is apparently 17 October, according to Al Masry Al Youm.
<rant> Speaking of the courts: Wasting the judiciary’s time should be a crime, not watching ‘blue movies.’ Remember the talk show host we mentioned on Sunday — the one who recommended the wide watching of certain types of films enjoyed by young men everywhere? (We can’t use the word in question if we expect to reach your inboxes.) Well, she has a court date now. Nafsana, a prime time women’s talk show (not unlike The View) launched to great fanfare last week on Al Kahera wal Nas, with clips of the show going viral (this one clocked 1.6 mn viewers in a few days). Enter Samir Sabry, a little-known lawyer who makes his living by raising lawsuits against anything he thinks is culturally unacceptable, most recently the case of Sama El Masry. (Sabry has also bragged of lodging ‘hundreds’ of cases against Ikhwan post-30 June, an act that requires as much bravery in the current era as kicking a dead cat). The champion of Egyptian morality has lodged a lawsuit against actress-presenter Intisar for her viewing recommendations — and got a hearing scheduled in less than a week. The best comment so far on the case goes to Amr Adib: “Intisar’s case will be in one week. One week for Intisar while we wait years for the judges to hear about cases like the ferry disaster.” Last we checked, Egypt had about 9,000 judges available to adjudicate more than 20 million lawsuits (all of them ensnared in a body of about 120,000 laws). With a backlog like that, you’d think a case raised by a two-bit lawyer against a female talk show host for discussing whether certain films depicting “mature situations” qualify as “must-see TV” would go straight to the back of the queue. Apparently not, because (to quote from the Tourism Industry’s upcoming campaign) #This_is_Egypt.
If we may quote the late, inimitable Pierre Elliott Trudeau: “There’s no place for the state in the bedrooms of the nation.”</rant>
UAE-based logistics firm Aramex will hold a meeting with OTMT on Wednesday to discuss forming a strategic partnership with regard to building five logistics centers throughout Egypt, according to Al Mal. OTMT had announced last month that it is looking to build five logistics zones with Aramex for EGP 1 bn, as reported by Ahram Online.
Traffic through the Suez Canal was largely constant in August of this year, rising 0.5% year-on-year (or by eight ships), Al Borsa reports. Daily average traffic has increased to 51.1 ships per day, up from 50.9 ships per day, while average cargo tonnage dropped 0.1%. Cargo ships have decreased 10%, while LNG tankers dropped 1.8%.
The “New EGP 400 tax” on flight tickets leaving Egypt caused a an outcry over the weekend, inspiring satirical and disparaging comments over social media, which are also misguided and exaggerated. This alleged “new tax” is simply an amendment to a preexisting tax which has been in effect since 1978. This imposed a tax of 10% of the ticket price, which was amended to 5% or a maximum EGP 300 for first-class and EGP 100 for economy-class tickets in 1998. The new tax on first class tickets is now EGP 400 for first class (an increase of EGP 100), and EGP 150 for economy-class flights (an increase of EGP 50). (Read in English or in Arabic)
With the split of Amer Group into Amer and Porto Groups, family scion and heir-apparent Omar Amer will apparently lead Porto Group going forward, according to a report last night in Al Borsa, which also includes a breakdown of which activity will be pursued by what company.
Two Turkish security personnel suspended over dragging corpse of 24-year old Haci Birlik through the streets: “Concerning the investigation that has been conducted on the dragging of a terrorist corpse on the ground in Şırnak last week, two personnel considered to have been involved in the incident have been suspended by inspectors,” the Turkish Interior Ministry said in a written statement on Monday, Hurriyet reports.
Oil exporters are starting to feel the pinch of falling energy prices: Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA), Kuwait’s sovereign wealth fund, is considering selling assets to cover the state’s expected budget deficit. KIA is planning to shed USD 30 bn worth of investments that generate annual returns of below 9%, Reuters said.
EGYPT IN THE NEWS
The top story on Egypt in the international press this morning is news of former Al Jazeera journalist Mohamed Fahmy’s return to Canada, as reported by the AP and the National Post. A close second is the news of the ordered release of Gamal and Alaa Mubarak, as reported in the Guardian, the Wall Street Journal, and the AP.
Egypt’s legislature will be a “fig leaf”: The Economist covers the upcoming October elections for a new unicameral parliament, arguing that a lack of opposition from Liberal parties and weak monitoring will allow “Mr Sisi [to] reign all but supreme”. The article goes on to argue that an electoral victory will only validate El Sisi’s policies, which are “harsher than he needs to” towards the Muslim Brotherhood — and which “risks radicalising hundreds of thousands, even millions, of people.” (Admirable journalistic restraint there, boys, really. Millions.) The magazine attacks the president’s economic policies for overspending on weapons and “dubious grand projects,” urging him instead to “to trust his people more, economically and politically…not [to] run everything from the top.” (Read)
WORTHLESS WATCHING
Ahmed Moussa aired footage which he claimed was from Russian bombers attacking ISIS targets in Syria on his television program Sunday evening. The footage itself, as noted byAhram Online, is from the video game Apache: Air Assault, and viewers can hear in-game voice acting with American accents. (Watch in Arabic with running game commentary in English, running time: 13:37, gameplay starts at the 2:45 mark)
Eslam Hossam so far has some of the best commentary on the video: (Read in Arabic).
It’s worth noting that Ahmed Moussa is not simply one television presenter among many — he is consistently chosen to join Egyptian media delegations abroad during official state visits, such as to Kuwait and Germany. Ahmed Moussa is the icon of everything that is wrong in Egypt, and perhaps it is only fitting that he is chosen to represent us to the world.
The story has already, of course, attracted the attention of the international press, including theWashington Post, where as of this morning, it was the most-read story in their World News section. Congratulations everyone. What will change after this, our latest invitation to the world to ridicule Egypt? Nothing, of course.
WORTH WATCHING
An individual who shows true leadership in Turkey, HDP co-chair Selahattin Demirtas speaks to reporters in response to Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu’s incendiary comments on the Ankara bombings. In our region, leaders like Demirtas are, unfortunately, the exception. (Watch in Turkish with English subtitles, running time: 10:22)
WORTH READING
Mahmoud Mohamed Hussein has been held without charge in preventive detention for nearly two years under a 2013 law amended by then-president Adly Mansour permitting renewal of preventive detention order indefinitely. Hussein was arrested at age 18 while on his way to a protest while wearing an anti-torture t-shirt. Amnesty has released the full text of a letter the young man wrote from Tora Prison, where his detention was renewed last Thursday for another 45-day period.
“The joy of Eid. What should I say about Eid? That occasion that Allah bestows upon us twice a year, once during Eid Al-Fitr, after the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, and as most recently, Eid Al-Adha, the festival of sacrifice. These occasions gather family and friends, so that they can enjoy being in each other’s company. I have not experienced this joy, since I was arrested at the age of 18. I remain in detention, and in January I will be turning 20. I don’t even know when my detention is going to end, nor why I was arrested in the first place. I don’t even know what case they have against me, since I have spent all this time in jail without charge or trial. When will this period end? So long as they view me as an accused person, it may not. Will I be tried for the sake of a goal, or an idea, or a dream that so many of us have dreamed since the ‘25 January Revolution’ of 2011?” Read the rest of the short, poignant letter from prison here.
DIPLOMACY
Irrigation minister visits Sudan to talk Ethiopian dam consensus
Minister of irrigation and water sources, Hossam Moghazi, headed to Khartoum on Sunday to meet Sudanese officials for talks over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), according to Al-Ahram Arabic and as reported by Ahram Online. President Abdel-Fattah El-Sisi held a meeting with Moghazi in Cairo Saturday to discuss the latest developments regarding the GERD.
ENERGY
Egypt awards Eni two new exploration licences off the Mediterranean
Eni was awarded two offshore exploration licences in Mediterranean at North El Hammad and North Ras El Esh as part of EGAS’ 2015 bid round, Eni said in a statement. “Eni has been awarded a 37.5% participating interest and operatorship in North El Hammad, where it partners with BP (37.5%) and Total (25%), and a 50% participating interest in North Ras El Esh, where it partners with BP (50%) which will act as operator.” The two blocks, which will be managed by Eni’s subsidiary IEOC, follow the recent award of the deep water Karawan and North Leil blocks. (Read)
Egypt tapping seven companies to buy 55 LNG cargoes
EGAS is buying 55 LNG shipments from seven companies, not 45 shipments as was originally reported, Reuters said. “Head of EGAS Khaled Abdel Badie said that bids from seven companies had been accepted out of a total of 12 for the shipping of 55 cargoes starting this November and through December 2016,” EGAS said in a statement. Trade sources told Reuters the seven companies awarded the tender are Trafigura, Vitol, Noble Group, EDF Trading, Gas Natural, PetroChina, and Shell. (Read)
LNG cargo for second FSRU to arrive on 15 October, EGAS says
The first LNG cargo for the second FSRU docked at the Sokhna Port will arrive on 15 October, Khaled Abdel Badie, the Chairman of EGAS, said. The cargo will be used to test the FSRU once preparations for it to begin operations are finalised. (Read in Arabic)
El Molla meets with EDF, Edison executives, discusses USD 220 mn investment
Oil Minister Tarek El Molla met with CEO Bruno Lescoeur of Edison and the CEO of its parent company, EDF, Jean-Bernard Lévy. The talks came on the sidelines of the French business delegation’s visit to Egypt. El Molla discussed the project developments in Eni’s USD 220 mn investment in Abu Kir that is expected to add around 150 mcf of natural gas production per day. (Read in Arabic)
First phase of Siemens’ renewable energy project set at 180 MW, tests begin
The first phase of Siemens’ planned 2,000 MW renewable energy projects across Egypt is set to produce 180 MW, Mohamed El Sobky, head of NREA, said. Wind and topographic tests for the project have already begun. The tests are expected to take 12 months, at which point a unit price per kWh will be set. The project was agreed to at the EEDC and also comes with another pledge to build a rotor blade factory. (Read in Arabic)
Oil Ministry considers renewing Aramco’s import contract
The Petroleum Ministry is considering renewing its petroleum import contract with Aramco for another three months. Ministry sources say Egypt is looking for better payment terms at the same time. The current contract to import 500 ktons of diesel, 220 ktons of HFOs, and 50 ktons of benzene, had allowed Egypt to defer USD 1.4 bn payments by one year. The current contract is set to expire in November. (Read in Arabic)
Oil minister meets with petroleum marketing corporations
Petroleum Minister Tarek el Molla met with the heads of public and private sector petroleum marketing corporations to discuss the development of a national strategy governing petroleum products marketing and distribution. The ministry is pursuing such a strategy to better supervise the distribution of petroleum goods across the country. (Read in Arabic)
BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES
Agriculture Ministry begins distributing subsidised fertilisers for the winter season
The Agriculture Ministry announced the beginning of fertiliser distribution for the 2015-16 winter season, Al Shorouk reported. The Agriculture Minister said local fertiliser producers including Abu Qir, Delta, Alexandria, and MOPCO are prepared to provide monthly quantities of at least 200k tonnes. Abu Qir alone pledged to provide 70% of the said quantity will be distributing 140k tonnes of subsidised fertilisers. (Read in Arabic)
HEALTH + EDUCATION
Administrative court rules that liver transplant costs must be borne by state in full
The state must completely fund expenses for liver transplant operations, according to a court ruling from a Zagazig Administrative Court. Previously, the state only had to contribute EGP 50k if the treatment was taking place in Egypt. The ruling comes after a patient, under the umbrella of the health insurance system, filed a lawsuit against the Minister of Health, and the head of the General Authority for Health Insurance, after he found that the state only covered EGP 75k of a EGP 301k transplant operation. (Read in Arabic)
ACMA to build EGP 160 mn syringe factory
The Arab Company for Medical Appliances (ACMA)—a subsidiary of the Arab Company for Drugs Industries & Medical Appliances (ACDIMA)—plans to begin building an EGP 160 mn auto disposable syringe factory early next year. Financing for the project will come from Misr Insurance and Saudi-based holding company Dallah Al-Baraka. (Read in Arabic)
REAL ESTATE + HOUSING
Housing Ministry to host workshop on new capital city project
The Housing Minister is organizing a workshop to showcase the upcoming pipeline of projects for the 10.5K feddan new administrative capital, said Housing Minister Mustafa Madbouly. Madbouly extended an invitation to construction companies, contractors and real estate investors to attend the workshop which will also include the projects pipeline for the New Alamein City. The date for the workshop has yet to be announced. (Read in Arabic)
Arab Contractors lays first water pipelines for new capital
Arab Contractors has begun laying out the first water utility pipeline to the new administrative capital, said Arab Contractors head Mohsen Salah. The 18.5 Km pipeline will link the new capital to the 10th of Ramadan water station, which will supply the construction site with water. The EGP 285 mn project was contracted by the Executive Agency for Water & Wastewater and will include a 4 Km3 water storage tank. (Read in Arabic)
TOURISM
Tourism Minister grants Nile Ritz Carlton operations license
Tourism Minister Hesham Zaazou granted the Nile Ritz Carlton an operating license. While the hotel’s opening was announced earlier in June, the operating license has only just now been granted as the hotel’s management had previously been unable to complete operations requirements, said Zaazou. The Nile Hotel was originally built in the 1950s under orders by Gamal Abdel Nasser, along with the Arab League building and the Cairo Municipality (which later became NDP HQ), and was managed by the Hilton company up until 2008 when the Ritz Carlton company took over and began renovation projects. Before that, this rare 1930s aerial photo shows it as a military barracks. (Read in Arabic)
Safaris, camping prohibited in Bahariya Oasis on security grounds
The Tourism Police put into effect on Thursday a prohibition on camping and safaris in El Wahat el Bahariya [Bahariya Oasis] until further notice. The prohibition extends to the western and southern areas of the Oases-Siwa and Oases roads, except for the White Desert in Farafra. (Read)
TELECOMS + ICT
Online learning needs support from politicians to thrive, says Intel Egypt
Intel-Egypt’s managing director Sameh El Mallah espoused the importance of online education applications as a means to improve regional education systems, as they cater to the specific needs of individual students and opens greater options to students. Speaking at the Innovation in Government Conference, El Mallah also stated that for this technology to proliferate there needs to be a political will to establish policies that allow its growth. (Read in Arabic)
AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION
Al Mansour Automotive pumps EGP 700 mn into service centers
Al Mansour Automotive are pumping EGP 700 mn into their service centers over the coming three years starting in 2016, to coincide with the release of the new 2016 Chevrolet Cruze, says Loutfy Mansour, the head of the marketing department. Al Mansour Group currently owns and operates 75 showrooms and 40 authorized service centers throughout the country. (Read in Arabic)
BANKING + FINANCE
EBRD launches Women in Business programme with NBE
The EBRD has teamed up with National Bank of Egypt to “launch a Women in Business (WIB) programme aimed at strengthening the role of female entrepreneurs in the Egyptian economy.” The programme provides a financial and technical support for Egyptian women who are starting up businesses or expanding existing ones. “Support and development of women entrepreneurs has the potential to be an important driver of growth for Egypt and result in a more inclusive and sustainable economy, which is one of the EBRD’s priorities,” Philip ter Woort, EBRD Director for Egypt, said. (Read)
OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE
Minister of International Cooperation urges World Bank to present alternative financial solutions to combat problems in the MENA region
International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr urged the World Bank to present new financial solutions to help redress the various crises plaguing the MENA region, during a meeting with World Bank President Jim Yong Kim on the sidelines of the recently concluding IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Lima. Nasr added that the World Bank should work on strategies with the Egyptian government to release financial instruments that better serve the specific development needs of the country. (Read in Arabic)
LEGISLATION + POLICY
FEI discusses new draft labor law and repercussion of 10% bonuses to workers
The board of the Federation of Egyptian Industries (FEI) is holding discussions on the new draft Labor Law, as well as on the repercussions of the 10% annual bonus for workers in the private sector, according to Mohamed El Sewedy the head of the FEI. (Read in Arabic)
EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS
Salafist Hezb Al Nour released a campaign ad specifically targeting those who live in informal settlements, along with rural communities and fishermen. As Center for American Progress researcher Mokhtar Awad notes: “the whole lighting team is Christian.” (Watch in Arabic, running time: 3:37)
ON YOUR WAY OUT
The 2015 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel was awarded to Angus Deaton “for his analysis of consumption, poverty, and welfare.” Deaton is credited with having pioneered techniques in microeconomics and microeconometrics that explain and forecast consumption patterns and how policy affects consumers’ decisions to spend on different goods and services. Ultimately he developed his research to be able to assess welfare and poverty implications with the awarding committee describing his focus on household surveys as something that “has helped transform development economics from a theoretical field based on aggregate data to an empirical field based on detailed individual data.”
Computer manufacturer Dell Inc. is set to land the biggest technology-industry takeover in history with the acquisition of data storage giant EMC corp. The agreement is worth a whopping USD 67 bn, which valued EMC at USD 33.15 per share as of the end of trading Friday. “The combination of Dell and EMC creates an enterprise solutions powerhouse,” said Michael Dell, who will lead the combined company as chairman and chief executive.
Five workers were killed and 23 injured in a clothing factory fire in the industrial zone of Alexandria Port yesterday, AMAY reports. Investigators believe the incident was caused by a boiler explosion.
QUICK FACT: The state’s collected 22.6% more tax revenues in the period spanning July 2014 through May 2015 than it did in the same period the previous year.
USD CBE auction (Monday, 12 October): 7.7301 (unchanged since Sunday, 05 July)
USD parallel market (Monday, 12 October): 8.17 (+0.12 from Sunday, 05 October, Reuters)
EGX 30 (Monday): 7,650.65 (+1.36%)
Turnover: EGP 842.3 mn (92% above the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -14.29%
Foreigners: Net Short | – 16.5 mn EGP
Regional: Net Short | – 44.2 mn EGP
Local: Net Long | + 60.7 mn EGP
Retail: 68.3% of total trades | 66.3% of buyers | 70.4% of sellers
Institutions: 31.7% of total trades | 33.7% of buyers | 29.6% of sellers
Foreign: 14.7% of total | 13.7% of buyers | 15.7% of sellers
Regional: 9.3% of total | 6.7% of buyers | 11.9% of sellers
Domestic: 76.0% of total | 79.6% of buyers | 72.4% of sellers
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PHAROS VIEW
Bear Market Rally is Gradually Diverging from Macro Realities
The V-shaped rebound in Egyptian equities is gradually diverging from the exceptionally high risk of a disorderly depreciation or a mini-recession in the near-term, as we had warned in previous notes. As of end August 2015, only 2.6% of the monetary base (currency in circulation and cash reserves held by banks at the CBE) was backed by net foreign assets (NFA). If excess reserves held by banks at the CBE (EGP 139.8bn as of end August) are taken into account, the ratio would plunge to only 1.9%. Accordingly, the EGP is hardly backed by foreign currency and further expansion in EGP liquidity, mainly via CBE deficit monetization operations, will exert material pressure on an already fragile peg. Alarmingly, the end August 2015 ratio is far lower than the corresponding figure as of end December 2002 (11.7%), one month before the EGP nose dived versus the USD. What is even more alarming is that the CBE no longer enjoyed a net foreign “asset” position in September, following the plunge in net international reserves during the month. We are still awaiting the September NFA figures but expect a net “liability” position of cc USD 0.5bn, which would be the first time the CBE becomes indebted to the rest of the world, on a net basis, since 1992. So, in summary, the current level of reserves (and NFA) is extremely alarming and has not been seen except during periods of “acute” economic and equity market dislocations. Based on the above, we continue to advise fund managers to remain on guard until there is more visibility on Egypt’s external funding plan in Q4-15 and 2016. Click here to view the chart…
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Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.
Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID: 553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.