Tuesday, 5 January 2016

Global markets cratered yesterday — what’s next?

TL;DR

Global markets cratered yesterday, led down by sell-off in Chinese equities (which is easing today) and Mideast tensions. (Speed Round)

Could the Saudi-Iran war of words slow development of Iranian gas fields? (Speed Round)

Cabinet continues to get serious about import restrictions, outlines five-point plan to address FX situation. (Speed Round)

The central bank’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of December were largely unchanged from the month before. (Speed Round)

Who will be the next speaker of the House is in question after two leading candidates drop out. (Egypt Politics + Economics)

Tunisian intellectual invited to anti-extremism conference is detained, questioned, deported — and Lamis El Hadidy isn’t happy about it. (Last Night’s Talk Shows)

U.S. business delegation coming to explore energy opportunities in May. (Diplomacy + Foreign Trade)

By the Numbers + With Egypt’s 5Y USD credit default swap (CDS) spread at a two-year high, a risk compression trade is in sight.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

It’s one of those mornings in which geopolitics (Saudi and Iran) and international market developments (the ripple effect from China’s meltdown yesterday) are the dominant business stories across the globe — including here in Egypt. We have recaps and some context at the head of today’s Speed Round.

Meetings of the Egypt-Saudi Coordination Council are hitting the ground running, with preliminary talks between the nations already making headlines. The three-day gathering is set to officially begin today, according to Ahram Online. More in Speed Round, below.

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

Thursday is a national holiday in observance of Coptic Christmas. Enterprise will be off for the day.

The Purchasing Managers’ Index for the UAE and Saudi Arabia will be out on Thursday, 7 January.

ON THE HORIZON

Newsflow next week is already looking busy as the nation shrugs off the holiday slow period:

  • The Coordination Council through which the central bank and cabinet coordinate monetary and economic policy is due to meet Sunday. On the agenda: Measures to curb imports and a possible lifting of the ceiling on foreign currency deposits.
  • Also on Sunday: The House of Representatives will convene for the first time. MPs will elect a speaker of the House during the nationally televised morning session.
  • The Emirates NBD Egypt Purchasing Managers’ Index is also due out on Sunday at 7:30am CLT.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Lamees El Hadidy on CBC Egypt patiently tried to find a single individual in Egypt who could explain why Tunisian intellectual Dr. Amel Grami was detained upon arrival in Cairo International Airport on Sunday, had her passport seized, was denied access to a phone and computer, interrogated, then finally deported back to Tunisia. Dr. Grami was in possession of a valid three-month visa to Egypt, and was in the country upon the invitation of Bibliotheca Alexandrina to present a lecture on countering extremism.

El Hadidy said she had reviewed Grami’s writings and could find nothing that would suggest why the intellectual would have been detained and deported. El Hadidy said she had spoken to the Interior Ministry, but had not received a clear answer as to why the entire incident had taken place.

Al Shorouk Editor-in-Chief Emad El Din Hussein called in to speak on Grami’s deportation, saying she has been a contributor to the newspaper for the past three years. Hussein noted that both the Bibliotheca Alexandrina and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs had attempted to intervene on Grami’s behalf throughout her ordeal, to no avail.

El Hadidy also addressed rumors that Al Azhar had some hand in what had happened, saying that her program had contacted legal counsel to Al-Azhar Sheikh Ahmed el-Tayeb, who stated that Al Azhar had nothing to do with the incident. Khaled Azab, head of the Central Projects and Services Sector at the Bibliotheca Alexandrina, called in to confirm this, saying Al Azhar had actually sent a delegation to attend Grami’s lecture.

The segment ended with El Hadidy speaking to Grami herself over the phone, with El Hadidy asking her if she could think of anything which could have caused the incident, while qualifying that by saying she rejected the outcome regardless. Grami replied that the only crime of which she is guilty is using her intellect and her pen.

The story is already gaining attention in the international Arabic press, with CNN Arabic running coverage on the incident this morning.

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SPEED ROUND

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Global markets had a meltdown yesterday in the first global trading day of the new year. Chinese stocks led off, falling 7%, triggering the newly added “circuit breakers” and forcing exchanges to suspend trade for the first time. “It was a stampede,” a strategist tells Reuters. “Liquidity was suddenly gone and this is something no one has experienced before.” Bloomberg describes it as the “worst-ever start to a year for Chinese shares” on a day that ended abruptly with a trading halt. Announced late in 2015, the circuit-breaker system, the FT explains, is designed to trigger a 15-minute trading suspension if the index falls at least 5%, with a 7% drop halting trading for the rest of the day. “The Shanghai Composite Index lost 6.9%, while the small-cap-heavy Shenzhen Composite lost 8.2%,” the paper reported, with one analyst saying that “with the overall economy not showing much sign of recovery, the market just rotated through various hyped-up investment themes at the end of last year. Those themes are now played out.” In part, the drop was blamed on the readings of China’s PMI, which showed that conditions faced by Chinese goods producers continued to deteriorate in December, with production declining for the seventh time in the past eight months. Vasileios Gkionakis, head of global FX strategy at UniCredit, disagrees. He told Bloomberg TV that there are no changes in fundamentals and that the situation, on the whole, is stabilizing. Instead, he suggests that the drop in the Chinese stock market correlates more with what could happen oil prices, particularly following the recent escalation between Iran and Saudi Arabia.

European and U.S. shares followed China’s lead as investors reported being spooked by China and by recent developments in the Middle East. CNBC notes that in the U.S., the Dow Jones had its worst opening day in eight years as U.S. markets closed down for the day, “weighed by renewed concerns of global economic slowdown and increased tensions in the Middle East. An overnight drop in Chinese stocks that triggered a circuit breaker under a new rule also pressured sentiment.”

Egyptian equities also closed the day in the red, dragged down by regional tensions as well as China. Al-Borsa has a solid recap and a look at what to expect today from a technical perspective.

Crude prices briefly rallied, with Brent hitting a two-week high before sliding about 0.2% as traders figured a worldwide supply glut outweighed risk to supply from Saudi-Iranian tensions.

An unintended victim of all this: Ferrari, which went public in Europe yesterday as Fiat spun it off, making it independent for the first time since the late 1960s. The FT and Reuters have more.

Need a global take on yesterday? The WSJ and the Financial Times have wrap-ups out this morning. Not a subscriber to either? Try Reuters.

What’s next? If you’re an FT subscriber, go read Gideon Rachman’s “The political shocks that will define 2016,” where China and (as we suggested yesterday), the upcoming U.K. referendum on European Union membership and U.S. politics have starring roles. Meanwhile Mohamed El-Erian argues (also in the FT) that “Commodity exposure in 2016 requires care.” His bottom-line conclusion: “Entering 2016, commodities offer one of the most compelling investment opportunities. Rather than rush in, investors would be well advised to take a sequenced medium-term approach that pays as much attention to the investing vehicle as it does to the individual opportunities.

Think the bears have only begun to maul China? CNBC has a take on “The easy way to bet on a Chinese stock market disaster.” In a sentence: Exchange-traded funds that bet short on China. (Story plus video; run time: 3:49)

Best tweet on Chinese markets at the moment. From Financial Times U.S. markets editor Robin Wigglesworth, who previously trolled in our waters here in MENA as the paper’s GCC correspondent.

Asian shares pared early losses in today’s trading and as of dispatch time (about 6:05am CLT), were cautiously in the green, Bloomberg says: “Asian stocks erased losses as a selloff in China abated after the regulator sought to reassure investors following Monday’s plunge. Oil and industrial metals rose.”


Tensions heating-up in the Gulf: Saudi Arabia has severed diplomatic ties with Iran following the execution of a Shiite cleric and after demonstrators stormed the Saudi embassy in Tehran, BBC reported, as we noted in yesterday’s issue. Saudi Foreign Minister Adel Al Jubeir gave all Iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave Saudi Arabia and recalled Saudi diplomats from Iran. “Jubeir said Saudi Arabia would not let Iran undermine its security, accusing it of having ‘distributed weapons and planted terrorist cells in the region’,” the BBC adds. Iran’s foreign ministry responded by saying Riyadh used the attack on its embassy in Tehran “as a pretext to fuel tensions,” Reuters reported. Russia said it is willing to “play, if necessary, a role as a mediator in the settlement of existing and emerging discords between these countries,” with a source at the Russian Foreign Ministry noting that Moscow has “friendly ties” with both countries. Later yesterday, Bahrain announced it was also cutting diplomatic ties with Tehran, while Sudan followed by “expelling” the Iranian ambassador, Al Arabiya reported. The UAE announced it was downgrading diplomatic ties to the level of a charge d’affaires and limiting the number of Iranian diplomats in the country.

As for Egypt’s position, following Iran’s breaking off of relations in 1980, according to SIS, relations were restored at the interest sections-level in 1991. With regard to Egypt following suit in downgrading relations, while the interest section is currently headed by an Egyptian ambassador, it is not a full-fledged Egyptian embassy but rather geared toward providing consular services. However, the MOFA did issue a statement on Monday condemning the attack on the Saudi embassy and consulate in Tehran.

…There’s been a spate of analysis on the growing tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran in recent days, with the majority of it hardly worth mentioning. Among the handful of takes worth reading so far:

  • Saudi-Iranian tensions threaten Mideast gas development: Energy expert John Roberts argues that Iran’s plans to approximately double its natural gas production by 2018-2019 may be confounded by the recent flare-up, as most of this increased production capacity would need to be financed by foreign investment. Roberts goes on to say “it is highly unlikely that US companies will either be willing or able to invest in Iran so long as the tension between Tehran and Riyadh remains close to boiling point.” (Read)
  • AP Analysis: With execution, Saudis ignite regional tensions: “‘What we have is a Saudi Arabia that’s increasingly unhinged, that is run by a young man [27-30 year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman] seeking to prove his bona fides, willing to take a lot of risks and of questionable judgment,’ said Cliff Kupchan, the chairman of the Eurasia Group. ‘I think that any independent analyst would have to come to the conclusion that the trajectory of the Saudi regime is one of the biggest political risks hanging over the Middle East at this point.’” (Read)
  • WSJ: Saudi Arabia Cuts Its Diplomatic Ties With Iran: “Mr. al-Nemer … was executed on Saturday alongside 46 mostly Sunni extremist convicts. Before the mass execution—the largest in Saudi Arabia in decades—Saudi authorities had been under pressure locally to execute al Qaeda militants involved in a violent insurgency between 2003 and 2006… That led some Saudi critics to suggest government leniency was helping foster a new generation of extremists to be recruited by Islamic State.” However, the piece also notes “Mr. al-Nemer’s execution could have been planned in part to placate a large bloc of Saudis who favor anti-Shiite policies and sympathize with Sunni extremism,” according to researcher Toby Matthiesen of the Middle East Centre of St. Antony’s College at the University of Oxford. (Read, paywall)

Here at home: The cabinet economic group moved to amend the Importers Registry Law to make room for Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil’s new export control measures. The cabinet will review the current registry ahead of making the changes and will consult with the Federation of Egyptian Industries and the Federation of Chambers of Commerce, according to an emailed statement. Meanwhile, ministers don’t seem so keen on cutting commodity subsidies, having agreed yesterday to earmark EGP 300 mn for the cotton harvest as part of the cotton subsidy plan and a EGP 100 per-ton subsidy for the 2016 sugar cane harvest.

The move to limit imports is creating backlash: A number of importers have threatened to sue Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil, claiming the move to restrict non-essential imports is hurting their businesses, Al Mal reports. Kabil issued a decree requiring that importers of 23 categories of goods have their overseas suppliers register with Egypt’s General Organisation for Export and Import Control (GOEIC) and have them agree to inspections by Egyptian technical teams. Al Mal has the full list of restricted goods. Reuters’ Arabic service notes that the decision, which comes into effect on 1 March, also gave Kabil discretionary power to exclude any specific producers from the restriction. Ahmed Shiha, the head of the importers section of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce, told Reuters that, besides crippling the businesses of importers, Kabil’s decision could also amount to a violation of other countries’ sovereignties.

Limiting imports is one of five steps the Ismail government is taking to address the shortage of foreign currency, a source tells Al Shorouk. The first move will be to limit imports, including measures already taken such as requiring a 100% cash-cover for some imports and restricting some goods. The government will cap repeated Hajj and Umrah trips for Egyptians — a sensitive issue, the source concedes, but a major drain on foreign currency. Also on the agenda to reduce outlays is forging ahead with plans to reduce and restructure subsidies, but this will require parliamentary approval and that measures be put in place to protect the most vulnerable segments of society. To increase foreign currency receipts, the government will look into attracting more religious tourism as part of a Tourism Ministry plan that involves obtaining security clearances for tourists to visit religious shrines. The source adds that efforts to facilitate and attract investments are also underway, targeting Gulf-based investors who have expressed a willingness to increase their exposure to Egypt. These strategies topped discussions of the cabinet’s economic group meeting, which decided to form a working group of the economy ministers and the central bank to devise policies for the program, according to an email statement from the cabinet.

And speaking of the nation’s FX position: Egypt’s foreign currency reserves rose marginally to USD 16.445 bn last month, up from USD 16.422 bn the month before, Reuters quotes the central bank as saying on Monday. As we noted yesterday, CBE Governor Tarek Amer stated the combined USD 1.5 bn loans from the World Bank and the African Development Bank have yet to be received.

It’s coming, though: Egypt will receive USD 500 mn from the African Development Bank in mid-January, Enterprise was informed by a senior figure at the bank. The funds, agreed to by the Ismail government in December, will be disbursed in a single tranche. The government has submitted all the necessary paperwork, which is currently being reviewed by the bank.

Saudi Arabia has also agreed to provide Egypt with over USD 3 bn in loans and grants to help the USD-starved economy, Bloomberg reports. Saudi Arabia will loan Egypt USD 1.5 bn to develop the Sinai Peninsula and USD 1.2 bn for oil buys, according to International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr. The kingdom will also give Egypt a USD 500 mn grant for Saudi exports and products, Nasr goes on to say. The minister is currently in Riyadh for meetings of the Egypt-Saudi Coordination Council.

In more Saudi-Egyptian news, Egypt is asking Saudi Arabia for a one-year grace period to pay for Saudi fuel shipments, Al Mal quotes International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr as saying. During preparations for the Egypt-Saudi Coordination Council meetings, Nasr also said Egypt is considering whether to fix the price it pays for the shipments at their current levels until 2021 or base them on changing market prices. On the sidelines of the meetings, Al Borsa says the Housing Ministry presented Saudi investors with 22 projects, including a 1,000-feddan residential project in the administrative capital.

And while we’re on fuel shipments, Egypt plans import 3 mn barrels of crude oil per month from Kuwait, a petroleum sector official tells Daily News Egypt. Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) will supply Egypt with around 3 mn barrels of crude per month and diesel and jet fuel supplies worth USD 1.2 bn per year, with the contract ending in September 2016. Egypt imports crude from Kuwait at international prices for Brent at the time of supply, according to the source, who added that the contract details neither fixed prices nor interest payments. Diesel and jet fuel supplies are paid three months after they are received.

The Oil Ministry is planning to sign 25 new oil and gas agreements worth USD 4.5 bn in addition to holding three auctions for exploration concessions in 2016, Al Borsa reports. Eight new gas field developments producing 450 mcf with investments of up to USD 1.2 bn are expected to come online this year, while 19 development wells will add 325 mcf of gas to the grid, said Oil Minister Tarek El Molla. All in all, the ministry plans to raise oil output to 700K barrels per day, up from 685K last year, and gas production to 4.7 bcf per day, up from its current rate of 4.3 bcf. The ministry is hoping that new investments will help plug supply gaps. The news comes as Egypt looks to reduce arrears to foreign international oil companies, which currently stand at USD 3 bn — and as IOCs slash global investments, we noted yesterday. In related news: A U.S. business delegation will visit Egypt in May to discuss energy investments. (More on that in Diplomacy + Foreign Trade, below.)

The Tax Authority said it delivered a finished draft of the the value-added tax act to the Finance Minister before the end of 2015, Al Shorouk reports. The authority said it also prepared an explanatory note for the law before the end of the year. Once applied, VAT should bring in an extra EGP 31 bn to the state, the authority estimates.

EGP 270 bn: Total tax inflows to Egypt’s treasury in FY2014-15, according to a statement from the Tax Authority run by Al Masry Al Youm. Some EGP 165 bn came from income taxes, while sales taxes contributed EGP 105 bn.

Cabinet’s China drumbeat continues: Contracts will be signed during President Xi Jinping’s upcoming state visit. At a minimum, we can expect MoUs signed with the China State Construction Engineering Corporation for phase one of the new administrative capital will be inked, Al Borsa quotes Housing Minister Mustafa Madbouly as saying — provided an agreement on financing is reached. The Housing Ministry has already allocated EGP 5 bn to fund utility development of phase one, which covers 10,500 feddans. Ministry sources also note that signing the MoU for the development of wastewater infrastructure in Upper Egypt was a crucial step in pushing forward negotiations for financing the project with Chinese state banks.

Danone has asked the regulator for extension on its acquisition of 100% of Halayeb Company for Dairy Products, Al Borsa reports. The EGP 120 mn acquisition was set to take place on 30 December, but Danone pushed the date back to the end of January to complete due diligence and finalize contracts.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

Global bandwidth for anything Mideast appears to be solidly filled with the brewing Saudi-Iranian war of words, leaving the most popular story mentioning Egypt (as opposed to being “about Egypt”) is news that the next “Assassin’s Creed” video game won’t be out until 2017 — and that it will be set in ancient Egypt. Gawker’s Kotaku broke the news, and Polygon’s piece is getting plenty of hits, too. Kotaku acknowledges that while citing a 4chan user as a source is a little questionable, the few details disclosed reportedly matched up with everything they’ve heard on the game, whose working title / codename is Empire. The article also notes that Michael Fassbender will star in the film adaptation of the game series set for a release a year from now.

WORTH WATCHING

What are the biggest risks facing the world in 2016? Business Insider puts together a video compiled from the Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2016 report, including a “weakening and increasingly irrelevant” transatlantic partnership, a closed Europe and China’s footprint. (Running time 4:20)

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

U.S. business delegation to visit in May to explore energy investments: A U.S. business delegation is expected to arrive in Egypt in May to discuss investment opportunities, Al Borsa reports. The coming period could see an influx of American investments in the energy sector, said Omar Mehanna, head of the Egyptian-American Business Council, which is organizing the trip with AmCham. Mehanna noted U.S. companies are particularly interested in the food sector and the Suez Canal Development Area. U.S. investments in Egypt currently stand at USD 20 bn, he added.

ENERGY

Oil price drop slashed Egypt’s monthly oil product import bill by 38.5%: El Molla
The fall in international oil prices reduced Egypt’s monthly oil product import bill by 38.5% to USD 400 mn from USD 650 mn, Oil Minister Tarek El Molla told Reuters. In total, Egypt is now spending USD 650 mn on fuel product imports, of which USD 250 mn is directed toward financing LNG buys. El Molla says the cost prior to the international price drop was USD 850-900 mn. (Read in Arabic)

Coal-fired power plant agreement with Al Nowais to be reached mid-2016
Global engineering and consulting firm Black & Veatch is reviewing the financial, technical and legal studies presented by Al Nowais Investment to build the first coal-fired power plant in Egypt, Al Borsa reports. Al Nowais had signed an MoU with the Egyptian Electricity Holding Company to build a 2,640 MW power plant on a build-own-operate basis back in September at an estimated cost of USD 4.5 bn. The final agreement is expected to be reached mid-2016, sources within the Ministry of Electricity tell Al Borsa. (Read in Arabic)

Ministry of Electricity expects to complete ACWA Power negotiations to build Dairut power station in June
The Ministry of Electricity expects to complete negotiations with Saudi’s ACWA Power to build a 2,250 MW power station in Dairut by June this year, ahead of the final agreement in August, sources tell Al Borsa. The ministry was recently allocated a USD 2.5 bn financial guarantee package from the government that includes operational costs for six months. The plant features three combined-cycle units that can generate 750 MW each. (Read in Arabic)

KarmSolar, Plus Leasing agree on funding for solar-powered irrigation of the 1.5 m feddan reclamation project
Solar technology company KarmSolar has inked an agreement with Plus Leasing to fund companies operating the irrigation system for the 1.5 mn feddan reclamation project, Daily News Egypt reports. Under the agreement, Plus Leasing has allocated EGP 30 mn in 2016 for KarmSolar clients using solar power instead of diesel for the irrigation. Plus Leasing chairman Amr Lamey adds that the companies would pay a 25% down payment, with the option of paying the rest in installments over five or seven years. The 1.5 mn feddan land reclamation project was officially launched in late December.

Environment, transportation ministries form committee for transporting coal
The Transportation Ministry and the Environment Ministry have agreed to form a committee to troubleshoot and expedite transporting and handling coal at Egypt’s ports. The decision follows a meeting between the two ministers that focused on procedures for handling coal at ports and environmental concerns for transporting coal along the Nile. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Egypt in talks over EGP 5 bn-equivalent Russian loan to finance sewage plant
Egypt is in talks over an EGP 5 bn-equivalent Russian loan to finance the construction of a sewage treatment plan in Helwan, a source tells Al Borsa. The ministries of housing and international cooperation will meet with an Egyptian-Russian joint committee in Sharm El Sheikh next month to discuss facilities and interest rates on funding. The proposed sewage treatment plant has a capacity of 2 mcm per day and is expected to take 24-36 months for completion. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

NUCA sends South Marina contract to ARCO officials for review
The New Urban Communities Authority (NUCA) sent the final South Marina Project agreement to Saudi-based Al-Arabia Company for Real Estate Development (ARCO) for final review, ahead of signing the contract, Al Borsa reports. The South Marina Project on the North Coast is planned to cover an area of 2,800 feddans, with an estimated investment of EGP 26 bn. NUCA’s share is estimated at EGP 10 bn. The project will provide around 14,000 job opportunities and is aimed at making the North Coast a year-round destination. (Read in Arabic)

Arab Contractors pull out of competition to extend infrastructure to Airport City
Arab Contractors have taken themselves out of the running for an EPC-plus-finance tender to extend infrastructure to Airport City, says the company’s senior vice president Sayed Farouk, according to Amwal Al Ghad. The firm dropped out after the National Bank of Egypt failed to put together a syndicated facility for the project. The Egyptian Airports Company (EAC) had stated that the winning company would have to secure its own financing, but would be paid back by the EAC over a period of up to eight years. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Tourism minister to form charter airline with the private sector
The Tourism Ministry plans to establish a charter airline in partnership with the private sector, Al Mal quoted Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou as saying. EgyptAir is in talks with the private sector to help form the airline in which the government will hold a 20% stake. Zaazou adds that the airline will have at least five planes. The move is part of the Tourism Ministry’s strategy to revitalize the ailing sector by promoting and relying on cheap charter flights to Egypt. The ministry increased subsidies for chartered flights last month as part of the policy. (Read in Arabic)

TELECOMS + ICT

National Investment Bank refuses EGP 2.6 bn loan to ERTU
The National Investment Bank (NIB) refused to grant the Egyptian Radio and Television Union (ERTU) an EGP 2.6 bn loan to upgrade its analog broadcast system to digital, NIB board member Momtaz Al Saeed tells Amwal Al Ghad. Al Saeed says the bank does not have sufficient liquidity to extend the loan. ERTU currently owes NIB around EGP 14 bn, of which EGP 7 bn are scheduled to be dropped, says Al Saeed. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Audis still held by Customs Authority, EATC calls for their release
The Customs Authority is still holding 100 Audi vehicles at ports, Al Mal reports. Karim El Naggar, CEO of Egyptian Automotive & Trading Company (EATC), the Audi and Volkswagen dealer in Egypt, called on the vehicles, which have been held for nearly two months, to be released. The Customs Authority is disputing the legality of the receipts presented by EATC and wants to use its own price estimates to impose tariffs. (Read in Arabic)

BANKING + FINANCE

Banque Misr wants to finance OTMT’s acquisition of CI Capital
Banque Misr has offered to finance the acquisition of CI Capital by Orascom Telecom Media and Technology Holding (OTMT), sources tell Al Mal. Banque Misr is reportedly offering OTMT EGP 700 mn over five years, representing roughly 74% of the expected acquisition agreement value of EGP 950 mn-EGP 1 bn. (Read in Arabic)

EGX draws up new lists of companies eligible for intraday and margin trading
The EGX has set conditions and categories for securities eligible for intraday and margin trading, based on the volume of trades. 65 blue-chip companies are now eligible for both intraday and margin trading (dubbed Category A companies), while 58 second-tier companies can only engage in margin trading (Category B) with the rest (Category C) banned from both. Conditions to be eligible for the Category A denomination are a market cap of no less than 2/10,000 of the EGX’s market cap, a daily trading average in the stock by brokerage firms of over 15% of the market total and a daily trading volume of over 0.3% of the EGX’s total trade volumes. Category B companies must have a market cap of no less than 1/10,000 of the EGX’s market cap, a daily trading average of over 5% of the market’s brokerage trades and a daily trading volume of over 0.1% of the market total. These new guidelines will come into play on 4 February.

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Jockeying for House speaker’s post continues
The two putative front-runners to be the first speaker of Egypt’s House of Representatives have signalled they have no interest in the job. Serry Siam, a former head of the nation’s highest appeals court, and senior lawyer Bahieldin Abu Shokka were both tipped as favourites after making the list of 28 presidential appointees. Neither man is interested in the job, according to Ahram Online’s Gamal Essam El Din, who reports that Siam would instead seek the chairmanship of the House Committee on Legislative and Constitutional Affairs, while Abu Shokka expects to serve as spokesman for the Wafdist bloc in the house. Through the middle marches the Support the State coalition, which said it will announce today its nominee for the post. (Read)

Journalist MPs promise to focus on media, censorship legislation
A number of journalists elected to the House of Representatives plan to focus on media and censorship-related bills during their tenure in office, including the Media Law, the Journalism Syndicate Law and the Free Exchange of Information Law. Youssef El Ka’eed also says he will seek to review possible changes laws on blasphemy, which is currently being used to try media personality Islam El Beheiry. On the flipside, Amaal El Tarbiya said she would push for new legislation to arrest journalists “who endanger national security” — as if the media and terrorism laws weren’t enough. Said Hegazy promised help establish regulations governing the formation of new media outlets to guard them against shuttering, while also promising to fight to better the financial prospects of journalists. (Read in Arabic)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

Why doing business in Egypt continues to be a challenge: State authorities with land holdings continue to fight with GAFI over the implementation of some of the terms of the investment law that was passed last March, Al Mal reported. The authorities, including NUCA, are reportedly refusing to bear the costs of the periodical publications GAFI is set to publish to announce national land tenders. They are also calling on GAFI to include their own institutions’ logos next to GAFI’s in the publications. To top it off, they are refusing to bear of cost of land valuation, saying that since GAFI is taking over the tendering process, it should bear the entire cost. The new land tendering system has not yet come into effect.

Logic, thy name is “Mortada”: “Zamalek chairman accuses Vodafone Egypt of bribery, attempting to fix matches,” reports Ahram Online. ‘Nuf said.

The Ministry of Education is holding a competition to redesign the national high school mathematics curriculum on its website. The competition includes cash prizes of up to EGP 250K and applicants have three months of submit their proposals.

Al Kahera Wal Nas host Ibrahim Eissa’s trial for insulting a former parliamentary candidate has been pushed to 23 January after it was postponed last week from 2 January, Daily News Egypt reports. Ahmed Khalifa Diab filed a defamation suit against the host for including Diab in a list of Muslim Brotherhood candidates.

Meanwhile, one of the life sentences handed down to Muslim Brotherhood leader Mohamed Badie was overturned on Monday by the Court of Cassation, ordering a retrial, Ahram Online reported. 12 other life sentences were similarly overturned, including those for Khairat El Shater, Essam El Erian and Mohamed El Beltagy.

BY THE NUMBERS
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USD CBE auction (Sunday, 03 January): 7.7301 (unchanged since Wednesday, 11 November)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 03 January): 8.58 (+0.01 from Thursday, 31 December)

EGX30 (Monday): 6982.25 (-1.51%)
Turnover: EGP 529.9 mn
EGX 30 year-to-date: -0.34%

THE MARKET ON MONDAY: The EGX30 dropped 1.5% yesterday following the 7.0% plunge in Chinese markets that triggered circuit breakers and saw the trading day closed early. Crédit Agricole was the only EGX30 constituent to end the day in the green, inching up 0.3%. The worst performers were OTMT, Orascom Construction and Egyptian Resorts. With a market turnover of EGP 529.9 mn, regional investors were the only net sellers. Indices in the region didn’t fare much better, with Saudi’s Tadawul falling 2.4%, Dubai’s General Index 1.6% and Abu Dhabi’s General Index 1.3%.

Foreigners: Net long | EGP +22.2 mn
Regional: Net short | EGP -54.8 mn
Domestic: Net long | EGP +32.6 mn

Retail: 72.0% of total trades | 74.7% of buyers | 69.4% of sellers
Institutions: 28.0% of total trades | 25.3% of buyers | 30.6% of sellers

Foreign: 9.1% of total | 11.2% of buyers | 7.1% of sellers
Regional: 10.3% of total | 5.1% of buyers | 15.4% of sellers
Domestic: 80.6% of total | 83.7% of buyers | 77.5% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

With Egypt’s 5Y USD CDS spread at a two-year high, a risk compression trade is in sight

Egypt’s five-year USD credit default swap (CDS) spread — which reflects the premium required to insure against sovereign default on a specific Eurobond issue — has sharply risen since end October 2015, reflecting both a corresponding surge in EM CDS spreads as well as Egypt-specific spread. Tap here to read more about why we think this is a key tactical indicator on which you should keep you eyes as you fashion your trading strategy this month.

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