Monday, 14 December 2015

The CBE just flooded the market with dollars in a ‘special operation’

TL;DR

The CBE just flooded the market with USD, but does not specify how much; speculation is that ‘special operation’ saw c. USD 1 bn injected (Speed Round)

Fiscal, monetary policy coordinating committee to meet on Thursday ahead of Central Bank of Egypt’s interest rate decision (Speed Round)

Consumers will be eligible for value-added tax rebates (Speed Round)

Egypt and Saudi meet in Cairo tomorrow to discuss aid, investment (Speed Round)

Beyti planning EGP 4 bn investment to expand juice, dairy operations (Speed Round)

Falling oil prices could bring down fuel subsidies to EGP 40 bn in FY2016-17 (Energy)

By the Numbers + CBE looks to persuade bank chiefs to support de-dollarization, take a hit on NIMs

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The central bank will issue USD 1.1 bn in treasury bills — by our math, the first time the CBE has issued USD-denominated T-bills since 2012.

Today will also see the beginning of runoffs for 13 seats in four electoral districts, including two in Beni Suef and one each in Beheira and Alexandria. The expectation at present is that the new House of Representatives could convene for its first session before year’s end.

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail will meet Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman in Cairo on Tuesday at the second meeting of the Egyptian Saudi-Coordination Council. Ismail is expected to pitch the Saudi prince on high-profile projects.

Also tomorrow, the U.S. Federal Reserve begins a two-day meeting at which it’s widely expected to raise interest rates for the first time since June 2006, and the African Development Bank’s board should sign off on a USD 500 mn loan to Egypt.

On Wednesday, Star Wars: The Force Awakens opens at the IMAX in Six October and the U.S. Fed should announce its interest rate decision.

The Central Bank of Egypt’s Monetary Policy Committee will meet to review interest rates on Thursday.

On Saturday, Egypt expects to sign USD 1.5 bn in loan agreements, including the USD 500 mn facility the AfDB is expected to approve on Tuesday and USD 1 bn from the World Bank. Egypt will look to draw as much as USD 1 bn before year’s end.

LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Lamis El Hadidy’s likes the Twitter hashtag “#ThisisEgypt” and isn’t very pleased with those who don’t. Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou called in to note that “an unprecedented number of visitors have come to the Tourism Ministry website due to that hashtag.” Zaazou also told Lamis that Egypt will tap the Tourism Assistance Fund to help finance a proposed agreement with the U.K. and an unnamed third party to improve security at Cairo International Airport.

Lamis issued a warning message to social media users who posted pictures of trash, political prisoners and Cairo’s never-ending traffic jams with the #ThisisEgypt tag: “The least that I can tell those who post pics of prisoners and trash: They don’t have loyalty,” Lamis said. “When you upload those ugly photos, you’re not offending Sisi or anybody, you’re being harmful to the poor and to industry.”

The host next had coverage of President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s speech at the opening session of Cairo ICT, then rang-up CIT Minister Yasser El Qady to discuss the latest developments in the tech industry: “There are several pathways to improve ICT infrastructure, the most important of which is the production and assembly of electronic devices,” El Qady said. “In three years, [Egypt] will export USD 3 bn in electronic products.”

Lamis very briefly mentioned the new “Hekoomty” phone application, saying the app will help Egyptians navigate government services electronically, including renewing driver’s licenses, ID cards, car registrations, and the status of electricity and gas receipts, among others.

Over on Al Qahera Al Youm, Amr Adeeb dedicated a large chunk of the show to El Sisi’s visit to Cairo ICT. Adeeb said Egypt has little to offer in the face of Korean or American technological inventions and advancements, then called former CIT minister Hany Mahmoud, who explained, “From 1999 to 2010, Egypt was home to a surge on the tech front, but the sector declined after the revolution. Egypt was ranked number four globally as a destination for call centers before 2011.”

Ibrahim Eissa was back on Al Kahera Wal Nas after a day off yesterday, engaging in a non-stop 51-minute monologue tackling wildly different issues (watch). Eissa kicked off show addressing Sisi’s Cairo’s ICT speech on Sunday, pointing out that the president’s visits lately have steered away from his normal visits abroad to military institutions. Eissa then went on a mini-rant on the need for “investing in the Egyptian intellect”.

“El Sisi’s latest visits abroad are a confirmation that we must invest in the Egyptian people and human resources” Eissa said. “If we free people’s creative functions, we will achieve progress with our country. This is the priority.”

Eissa then moved on to dissecting the Support the State Coalition by displaying a Youm7 video of General Badawi, a representative of Al Wafd Party, saying that the he agreed to join the coalition at the suggestion of the State Security apparatus under the banner of ‘rescuing the state.’ “I don’t understand what’s happening,” Eissa said. “This drowns the state; it doesn’t rescue it.”

In his second segment, “Other Side of the Story,” Eissa without much transition, analyzed Egypt’s power usage by social segment. According to Eissa, just 3% percent of Egyptians (the rich) use over 600 KW per month, while 97% consume under 600 KW. Furthermore, 182k families use 2% of electricity in Egypt, according to Eissa. “You can know Egypt socio-economic classes from their electricity usage.” Eissa exclaimed. The presenter did not provide a source for his breakdown.

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CBE injects more foreign currency at USD 1 per EGP 7.7401 after the day’s regular auction, unclear if exchange rate moved: The CBE injected more foreign currency liquidity into the banking system in an exceptional “surprise operation” late yesterday, bankers told Reuters, reportedly selling an unspecified quantity of USD at USD1 per EGP 7.7401 to banks. The move was sudden and announced shortly before the working day ended. “It was unclear how much foreign currency the central bank had pumped out in total, as bankers said each bank was only aware of the share it would be receiving,” Reuters reports in the absence of comment from the CBE. A source told Al Mal that the CBE injected around USD 1 bn in total required that the sum remain on deposit at the CBE at 0.93% over LIBOR. Al Borsa quotes another source saying the rate is 0.95% over LIBOR. It also adds that the CBE told banks it will intervene again in the market on Wednesday to cover a second portion of USD-denominated credit facilities for importers. The CBE’s website still carries the official auction rate at USD 1 per EGP 7.7301.

The DNE cites an email reportedly received by an anonymous banker as suggesting the CBE injected about USD 1 billion, representing a further one quarter of the import backlog.

Bottom line: There are more greenbacks in the market this morning — probably about USD 1 bn worth — but there’s still no answer to the fundamental question of “Where is the FX coming from?”

The coordinating committee responsible for keeping fiscal and monetary policy in sync will reportedly hold its first meeting on Thursday morning, head of the planned Central Bank of Egypt Monetary Policy Committee meeting, says Al Borsa, citing an anonymous source. Members of the coordinating committee include CBE Governor Tarek Amer and two of his senior deputies as well as the ministers of investment, finance, trade and industry. Also members are former central bank governor Farouk El Okda, top global strategist Mohamed El-Erian and Abla Abdel Latif, head of Presidential Council of Economic Advisors.

Raiding the piggy bank? The head of the Finance Ministry’s Egyptian Mint denied that the CBE is adding melted commemorative coins to the bank’s reserves — due to a technicality. Mohamed El Sobky, the head of the Mint, says the CBE is only allowed to hold 24 carat gold, but the coins are 21 carat. Accused of melting the coins, El Sobky told Amwal Al Ghad that not melting old stocks of commemorative coins is a waste, since they stay unclaimed and unused. Reports had surfaced that the Egyptian Mint was holding one tonne of unhallmarked gold, which El Sobky then attributed to the melting of coins minted before 1995 and that are not in demand anymore. Reports that EGP 51.5 mn were lost following the melting process when compared to the value of the coins were also denied, with the Finance Ministry estimating the loss at only EGP 108.3k, according to Al Shorouk.

Portion of savings and pension deposits in the Social Insurance Fund switched to EGP from USD: The Social Solidarity Ministry decided to switch a portion of the pensions and savings deposits of the Social Insurance Fund for state employees to EGP from USD to lock-in better interest rates, said Minister Ghada Waly. Interest rates for savings deposits in EGP are 15%, compared to 1.5% for USD based deposits, she said. Waly added that the Ministry’s FX needs are negligible, making the switch a sensible one. (Read in Arabic)

Head office backstops Bank Audi Egypt in face of FX crunch: Bank Audi supported its Egyptian subsidiary by extending it USD 347 mn in credit financing to combat the shortage of foreign currency liquidity, Bank Audi-Egypt Chairman Hatem Sadek said. USD 120 mn was lent to the bank’s Egyptian operations to be used to extend credit and USD 60 mn went into Bank Audi Egypt’s capital. The parent organization also intervened by directly extending USD 127 mn in loans to Egyptian clients, most of whom were in the energy sector, Al-Mal quotes Sadek as saying.


Egypt and Saudi Arabia talk long-term loans, aid, investment opportunities: Egypt is in talks with Saudi Arabia for a long-term loan to fund development in the Sinai, said International Cooperation Minister Sahar Nasr. She that the two sides are also discussing Saudi Arabia supplying more petroleum products and other key goods, presumably in kind. Also on the agenda were a number of investment opportunities for Saudi Investors, including developing the site of the now-demolished headquarters of the former National Democratic Party off Tahrir Square, Al Mal says; the newspaper also notes that it has previously reported on the two sides being talks for a Saudi deposit at the CBE. Reuters also has the story, quoting Nasr at some length. The financial newswire suggests much of the Saudi investment could flow through the Saudi Fund for Development and that projects on offer include “plans for a hydroelectric plant in Assiut and plans to develop the Red Sea resort of Sharm al-Sheikh” Nasr is also reportedly in discussions with Kuwaiti investors, while Sherif Otaifa, an advisor on mega-projects to Investment Minister Ashraf Salman, told Reuters that “said Egypt was moving away from direct Gulf aid toward long-term investments.”

The new value-added tax (VAT) regime will institute a system of rebates for consumers of up to 5% of taxes on goods, and up to 15% of taxes on services, said Finance Minister Hany Dimian. This system is contingent on consumers submitting receipts for the goods and services purchased over the course of a year, said Tax Authority chief Abdel Moneim Mattar. The move is meant to encourage widespread adoption of the system, said Dimian, and seems to us rather more well-thought-through than the VAT lottery that had previously been discussed. The move is not the only sugar (VAT-exempt, BTW) the government is planning to help the VAT medicine go down. The lottery isn’t gone, but will take place once a month. The minimum income requirement for businesses to register under the VAT will be EGP 500K for producers and EGP 150K for traders and merchants, said Finance Ministry spokesperson Ayman Al Qaffas. The list of items exempted, which totaled 52 goods and services including food staples, agricultural and financial services, was released yesterday, Al Masry Al Youm reports. This string of announcements on the VAT follows the State Council’s approval of legislation that would bring the VAT into law.

President Abdel Fattah El Sisi announced two initiatives to accelerate ICT development in Egypt in his opening speech at the Cairo ICT summit, which launched yesterday. The “Egypt the Future” initiative aims to increase state revenues from the ICT sector to USD 3 bn in three years by attracting ICT investments and companies and building a manufacturing base for electronic goods. The president’s second initiative will aim to create a more technology-literate labor pool by teaming Egyptian Universities with global institutes of higher learning to provide tech-oriented training programs, Al Ahram reports. El Sisi also set ambitious targets for the ICT Ministry, instructing it to cut its timeline on the build-out of technology zones to one year instead of one and a half, AMAY reports. As it stands, the Ministry is planning to build seven such zones in 10 Ramadan, Beni Suef, New Assiut, Maadi, Damietta, New Aswan, and Al Quntara Shark.

Sawari Ventures plans to launch a new Flat6Labs fund: Regional venture capital outfit Sawari Ventures will invest USD 15-20 mn across the region in 2016 to expand Flat6Labs’ regional investment footprint, said founder and chairman, Ahmed Al Alfi. The move comes as Sawari plans to launch a new Flat6Labs fund in the coming five years to grow the startup incubator and accelerator’s portfolio to 100 companies. (Read in Arabic)

Egypt’s 1Q2015-16 budget deficit grew to EGP 78.3 bn from EGP 65.8 bn a year earlier, coming in at 2.8% of GDP. The government increased spending on subsidised food, electricity, and social benefits, Ahram Online reported.

Beyti planning EGP 4 bn investment to expand juice, dairy operations: Beyti Egypt is investing EGP 4 bn to build a new juice plant and two dairy farms, company CEO Mohamed Badran told Al Shorouk, saying the improved investment climate in Egypt drove the company’s decision to expand in Egypt. Badran said the investments should create 30,000 direct and indirect job opportunities. We also understand that the Almarai-Pepsico joint venture remains in talks to acquire Qalaa Holdings’ Dina Farms dairy operation, which Qalaa announced earlier this year was for sale.

No, Arabtec does not want to build more houses in Egypt… The company sent a disclosure to the DFM denying reports that it sent Egypt’s Housing Ministry a request to expand the number of houses it is going to build in Egypt beyond the 13,000 it had previously disclosed. Arabtec says it has not yet even received any feedback from the Egyptian government regarding its 13,000-house proposal.

…and Alfahim is in talks to build 30k houses unrelated to Arabtec’s project: Abu Dhabi’s Alfahim Group is in advanced talks to build 30k houses in Egypt, a Housing Ministry source told Al Shorouk. We reported in August that Alfahim has expressed interest in acquiring part of the housing project previously allocated to Arabtec. The source is now saying Alfahim is looking to acquire 2,600 feddans for its project, which it says is unrelated to the agreement with Arabtec. (Read in Arabic)

One unexpected, but welcome, benefit from the slump in tourism: From now through Coptic Christmas, you can take photos inside the Egyptian Museum without hassle or additional fee. DSLRs, point-and-shoots and camera phones are all apparently welcome, according to a report from Ahram Online.

The Kuwait Bourse Company will begin managing operations for the Kuwait Stock Exchange on 25 April 2016, with full privatization to be completed by December 2016, said Nayef Al-Hajraf, Chairman of Kuwait’s Capital Markets Authority. 50% of shares in the new company will be owned by Kuwaiti nationals, while the government will retain 6% of shares in the company, according to Mubasher. Al-Hajraf added that the privatization process will take place over four phases.

Trump signage back at Damac’s Akoya site in Dubai. “First it was up, then it was down and now it appears to be back again,” The National reports. It was reported that Damac was considering ending its golf course tie-up with the Trump Organization following Donald Trump’s “anti-Muslim remarks” last week after saying it is maintaining its partnership and “that the tie up had nothing to do with Mr Trump’s political views.”

Donald Trump and Alwaleed bin Talal are feuding on Twitter. BBC has the story. (That’s about all the energy we can muster Trump this morning other than to note that his position at center stage in this week’s Republican presidential debate effectively guarantees we’ll have to write his name at least once more before Thursday.)

Nearly 60 years after Egypt elected its first female member of Parliament, Saudi Arabia is being cheered for electing women to municipal council posts.

Other international headlines this morning that either carry implications for Egypt or that are simply worth noting in brief:

  • Climate obstacles emerge within hours,” the Financial Times reports (paywall), saying “The obstacles facing this weekend’s historic global climate change accord were thrown into relief on Sunday night when businesses and government officials downplayed the impact of the deal and US Republicans underlined their opposition.”
  • Also in the FT: German Chancellor Angela Merkel is its Person of the Year, as she was named last week for Time magazine.
  • “An international conference aimed at ending the civil war in Libya has called on all parties to accept an ‘immediate comprehensive ceasefire,’” the BBC reports. There are no signs that European nations took steps toward new military action in Libya.
  • Saving the world from the computers: Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and Amazon are among the bold-letter tech names that have donated a combined USD 1 bn to an artificial intelligence research center designed to save humanity from AI. We like the Financial Times’ coverage best (we’re having an FT kind of morning here today), but there are also solid takes out there from Fortune and Popular Science if you’re not an FT subscriber.

Corrections + Clarifications-

  • President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has approved a USD 400 mn loan from the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD, more about them here) to support the nation’s social safety net, not the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD), as we reported yesterday.
  • Mohammed bin Salman is the Deputy Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia, not the Crown Prince, as we incorrectly wrote yesterday.
  • The African Development Bank is contributing USD 500 mn of the USD 1.5 bn facility the Ismail government hopes to sign this coming weekend. The AfDB’s board is expected to approve the facility on Tuesday.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

It is a mercifully quiet morning for Egypt in the international press, with the two primary stories being follow-on pieces to the original Guardian story we noted yesterday on Alaa Al-Aswany falling out with the Sisi administration and the #ThisisEgypt campaign backfiring. The backfiring of the #ThisIsEgypt tourism campaign remains at the forefront of international news coverage on Egypt, with the Washington Post piece mentioned in yesterday’s issue remaining the fourth-most-read item in their Middle East section. Moving beyond English-language coverage into German-language news site Deutschlandradio Kultur, the story has also hit the travel press, including Skift and Travel Pulse.

DIPLOMACY + FOREIGN TRADE

A nuclear energy delegation headed by Electricity Minister Mohamed Shaker travelled to Moscow yesterday to continue negotiations with Rosatom on the proposed nuclear power plant in Daba’a, Amwal Al Ghad reported. The visit to Russia is first since a nuclear agreement was signed in November. Al Borsa says Shaker’s visit means that the signing of an EGP 10 bn loan to finance the domestic portion of Siemens’ power plants in Egypt will be delayed until his return. NBE is arranging the syndicated loan that includes nine banks and will be repaid over 15 years.

Egypt participates in latest diplomatic effort to bring warring Libyan factions together: Foreign Minister Sameh Shoukry and the foreign ministers of 16 other countries including the United States, Germany, Russia, Turkey and China met in Rome on Sunday to discuss the Libyan crisis, joined in their talks by 15 Libyan factions and representatives from the Arab League, Reuters reported. The meeting resulted in the issuance of a joint statement calling for the unity government to be based in Tripoli based on the Skhirat Agreement (pdf) negotiated in Morocco earlier this year. The statement notes with approval that different Libyan factions are set to sign the Libya Political Agreement on 16 December. In an implicit recognition of the chaos caused by the lack of support given to Libya following the NATO intervention, the statement offers “full political backing and technical, economic, security and counter-terrorism assistance,” to the hoped-for unity government. The ongoing political dialogue has been beset by a number of false starts, including more recently an agreement put forth by the UN’s former special envoy for Libya Bernardino Leon in October which was ultimately rejected by both the Tripoli faction and the internationally recognized government in Tobruk.

ENERGY

Fuel subsidies could fall to EGP 40 bn in FY2016-17
Fuel subsidies could fall to EGP 40 bn in FY2016-17, said deputy head of EGPC Amr Moustafa, reports Amwal Al Ghad. EGPC had estimated the global oil price at USD 75 per bbl for FY 2015-16, while current prices have ranged between USD 40-55, he added, noting that that results in a reduction in fuel subsidies. Moustafa notes that reduced global oil prices do not always translate to domestic price reductions because heavy subsidies on butane gas cylinders have it sold at EGP 8 per cylinder while their actual prices range from EGP 52-60 per cylinder. (Read in Arabic)

EGPC, EGAS following up on arbitration award to Israel Electric
EGPC and EGAS believe the decision to fine Egypt for halting gas supplies to Israel to be seriously flawed, a media official at Shearman & Sterling LLP told DNE. EGPC and EGAS say the International Criminal Court, which obliged Egypt to pay Israel Electric Company USD 1.76 bn in compensation, to have “based its decision on an excess of its jurisdiction and powers and reached its decision following a procedure plagued by serious violations of due process.” (Read)

Techint inks USD 140 mn agreement for mechanical works in 3 power plants
Italian-Argentine conglomerate Techint inked a USD 140 mn agreement with the Ministry of Electricity. The agreement is for mechanical works and piping installation in three power plants including El Shabab, West Damietta, and South Helwan. The former two will begin by April 2016 at a total cost of USD 65 mn, according to Ahmed Yehia, head of Sales at Techint Egypt. All three projects are set to be completed by August 2017, he added. (Read in Arabic)

Services companies make offers to provide infrastructure and security to solar power companies in Aswan
Six companies including Gridtech Infrastructure, G4S, and Falcon have extended offers to provide companies operating feed-in tariff solar power projects in Benban, Aswan with labor provision, traffic, housing, waterworks and security services. The move follows reports, which we noted yesterday, that staff members of three companies were harassed by local Bedouin tribes, which prompted the head of NREA to issue a statement denying these attacks happened. Furthermore, the area of Benban is in need of infrastructure development and labor services, said Hisham Tawfiq, the head of Cairo Solar—one of the 39 companies operating solar projects in the area. These companies plan to form a seven-member committee to negotiate on their behalf with the government for their needs, and with private sector companies offering these services to them, according to an unnamed chief executive of one of the companies speaking to Al Borsa. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Cisco Egypt complete development of technological infrastructure of Cairo, Hurghada Airports
Cisco Egypt announced the completion of its operations to automate and develop the technological infrastructure of the Cairo and Hurghada Airports, Al Borsa reports. Cisco Egypt was awarded a contract to develop the technological infrastructure for a number of airports domestically. The company’s General Manager says the project comes as part of the plans to achieve a 20% growth rate in Egyptian sales. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

IDA to meet with investors upset at land tender system
The Industrial Development Authority will discuss problems with issuing land tenders at a meeting with the Industry Investor’s Syndicate scheduled to take place towards the end of this month. It appears the meeting will largely hear out further complaints about how centralizing land tenders with the Investment Ministry has led to delays in obtaining usable land with utilities installed. The Al Borsa article does not mention the proposed draft bill allowing the Industrial Development Authority to issue land tenders for industrial projects, which we noted last week. The Syndicate’s concerns must also be taken in the context of poor development in Upper Egypt. Weak infrastructure and security are some of the biggest issues facing industrial development in the region, said the Syndicate’s representative Mohamed Geneidy. It is vital that the government address these issues when (or if) it holds the Upper Egypt investment conference, which was delayed for a third time to January 2016. (Read in Arabic)

REAL ESTATE + HOUSING

Al Shorouk City threatens to take back 140 feddan from 11 developers, citing ‘violations’
Al Shorouk City’s municipal authority warned 11 developers that they are at risk of losing a combined 140 feddans in property in New Shorouk and Sharq neighborhood for failing to meet the terms and conditions of the tenders they won back in 2010. All 11 companies were called out on alleged violations, but of six of them failed to develop their properties, citing a lack of utilities in the area, said the authority’s head Attef Zakariya. The companies have until April to begin development or risk losing their lands. (Read in Arabic)

TOURISM

Egypt received 9 mn tourists in 2015 -Official
Egypt received 9 mn visitors in 2015, according to the Head of Egypt’s General Authority for Tourism Promotion Samy Mahmoud speaking on behalf of Tourism Minister Hisham Zaazou on Saturday in Sharm El Sheikh, SIS reported. Mahmoud said the original target was 17 mn tourists, but that the target was not met due to terrorist incidents. The peak number of tourists to visit Egypt was 14.7 mn in 2010, according to Ministry of Tourism statistics (pdf).

NBE defers EGP 1.2 bn in tourism sector loan installments
The National Bank of Egypt (NBE) has delayed collection of EGP 1.2 bn in loan installments due from the tourism sector over the coming sixth months. The CBE had recently set new guidelines to the initiative to support tourism including restructuring non-performing loans and postponing loan installments to June 2016 to mitigate the damage caused by the the Metrojet crisis. Additionally, clients will be granted an extra year on top of the original period to pay back the loan, said Yehia Abou El Fetouh, Head of Debt Recovery & Restructuring at NBE. Clients will also have reduced interest margins offered on a case by case basis with clients. (Read in Arabic)

Hilton hosts “Support Tourism in Egypt” event to mark inaugural direct flight from Abu Dhabi to Sharm
Hilton Sharm Dreams Resort hosted an event at the beginning of the month to support tourism in Egypt and to mark the first direct flight from Abu Dhabi to Egypt, Hotelier Middle East reported. The event took place from 1-5 December under the auspices of Egypt’s Promotional Tourism Office in the UAE and was attended by South Sinai Governor Khaled Fouda.

TELECOMS + ICT

OTMT did not bid for telecoms licence in Lebanon
Orascom Telecom Media and Technology’s (OTMT) subsidiary Alpha did not bid for a Lebanese mobile licence. OTMT said in a disclosure sent to the EGX that Alpha did not meet the minimum requirements for bidding as it does not have the minimum of 10 mn subscribers. Alpha staying out of the bidding process resulted in it being cancelled due to “insufficient interest” according to Total Telecom.

Mobinil could invest more if 4G licence is issued, will increase capital
Mobinil has asked the CIT Ministry for more bandwidth to keep up with increased data usage, CEO Yves Gauthier told Al Shorouk in an interview. Mobinil will be ready to invest straight away if the CIT Ministry will issue 4G licenses in the 1,800 MHz band, Gauthier said noting that the company is still not sure for which frequency will the 4G licence be issued. The 4G licence issuance could driver Mobinil to increase its capital, a step Gauthier says would happen after Mobinil’s rebranding as Orange. (Read in Arabic)

AUTOMOTIVE + TRANSPORTATION

Dry Port Authority wants to charge USD-denominated fees
The Transportation Ministry’s Dry Ports Authority has submitted a suggestion to allow it to raise fees on passengers and cargo in USD. Transportation Minister Saad El Geyoushi is currently assessing the proposal, Al Mal reports. The Authority, which controls seven border crossings, is looking to raise its revenues in FY2015-16 to EGP 150 mn from EGP 130 mn a year earlier. (Read)

BANKING + FINANCE

AXA-Egypt in talks to buy Sawiris family shares in a bid to form investment arm
Insurance provider AXA-Egypt is in talks with members of the Sawiris family to buy a portion of their shares in the company, said AXA-Egypt’s managing director Hassan El Shabraweeshy. The move is an attempt by the company to marshal its resources ahead of forming an investment arm in Egypt, Al Mal reports. AXA-Egypt—whose investments in the country amount to EGP 1.5 bn—entered the Egyptian market this year through its acquisition of CIB’s Commercial Life insurance Company (CIL). (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

Trial of former Agriculture Minister begins, adjourned until January
The trial for former Agriculture Minister Salah Helal began on Saturday. Helal and his office manager are charged with accepting “bribes including a luxury home, membership of an exclusive sports club, clothing from high-end fashion stores, and mobile phones” but he maintains his innocence. Helal was arrested minutes after resigning his post in September. The trial was adjourned until 9 January for witness testimonies. (Read)

LEGISLATION + POLICY

Constitutional Court rules that special salary raises are not to be taxed
The Constitutional Court ruled that special raises on salaries for state employees—which are not part of the 10% annual raise on base salaries—are not to be taxed. The tax exemption is only on these special raises. Mandatory profit sharing, pensions, and end-of-service bonuses are not subject to salary tax, according to a Deloitte report (pdf) on taxation in Egypt. The most notable of these special raises was a 10% special raise issued by President El Sisi in May for state employees. Many public sector workers had protested in October over delays in receiving the raise resulting from a different interpretation on eligibility by the Finance Ministry. (Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

Social Solidarity Ministry ups fees on trains, cinemas, and mail
The Social Solidarity Ministry imposed additional fees on first and second class train tickets, mail and telegraph dispatches, using a public payphones, and entrance tickets to cinemas and nightclubs. The decision was published on Sunday’s issue of the Official Gazette, but the decree didn’t specify how much is the fees. Proceeds from the added fees will be used to shore up the Ministry’s NGO Assistance Fund. (Read in Arabic)

Four activists receive two-year prison sentences for protesting at the Mohamed Mahmoud anniversary
Four activists were each given two-year sentences by the Misdemeanors Court for protesting on the fourth anniversary of the Mohamed Mahmoud clashes. Mohamed Ibrahim, Karim Abdel Towab, Mustafa Ahmed, and Ahmed Fathy were arrested after forming a human chain on Qasr El Nil bridge to commemorate fallen activists in the 2011 clashes. (Read in Arabic)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

We are still in control of the company … Keen to remain [in North Korea],” Naguib Sawiris told Bloomberg TV commenting on the status of Koryolink operations. On other OTMT operations, Sawiris said the company will continue to invest in Egypt, which is “very rewarding.” (Run time 01:51)

Saudi is not about to get its first public cinema, reports Ahram Online.

BY THE NUMBERS
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USD CBE auction (Sunday, 13 December): 7.7301 (unchanged since Wednesday, 11 November)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 13 December): 8.55 (-0.02 from Thursday, 10 December, Reuters)

EGX30 (Sunday): 6,395.2 (-3.6%)
Turnover: EGP 277.1 mn (36% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -28.35%

THE MARKET ON SUNDAY: The EGX30 kicked off Sunday’s session shedding 2.2%. Ezz Steel plunged 6.5% as the government announced on Thursday that domestic steel prices dropped by EGP 25-350/ton. OTMT, Global Telecom, and Qalaa Holdings lost the most, and Beltone Financial was the sole EGX30 constituent to end in the green. EGX30 closed 3.7% down, and the broader EGX50 and EGX70 also closed in red. At a weak turnover of EGP 273.9 mn, foreign investors were the sole net buyers during the day. Regionally, the Saudi Tadawul fell 2.7%. Other GCC indices were also in the red: Abu Dhabi’s General Index and Dubai’s General Index were each 2.1% down.

Foreigners: Net Long | EGP +2.1 mn
Regional: Net Short | EGP -2.1 mn
Domestic: Net Short | EGP -0.0 mn

Retail: 77.2% of total trades | 79.9% of buyers | 74.5% of sellers
Institutions: 22.8% of total trades | 20.1% of buyers | 25.5% of sellers

Foreign: 6.4% of total | 6.8% of buyers | 6.1% of sellers
Regional: 4.4% of total | 4.0% of buyers | 4.7% of sellers
Domestic: 89.2% of total | 89.2% of buyers | 89.2% of sellers


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PHAROS VIEW

The governor of the Central Bank of Egypt met last Wednesday with the chairmen of the nation’s banks, almost a week ahead of the MPC meeting. The news is perfectly consistent with our view that “banks have been enjoying record high NIMs post revolution (cc 5.0% or higher) so the CBE will ‘persuade’ them to raise deposit rates to support the de-dollarization initiative, maintain lending rates unchanged, and accommodate NIM compression until the country is out of the woods”.

Hence, the meeting is likely part of the “persuasion process” particularly as it is scheduled almost one week ahead of the MPC meeting. Yet, as we noted earlier, the outcome of this persuasion process is uncertain given the different objectives of shareholders and the ability of private banks to capture low-cost deposits via their long-term corporate relations. In any case, it seems that banks will indeed be requested to bear part of the brunt of the EGP defense phase, in one way or another. So, 2015 may mark the peak of the stellar growth in bottom line and RoE that started in 2012 on the back of intense deficit monetization operations. In this environment, however, selected banks may choose to maintain RoE targets by slowing down the pace of booking excess provisions or by raising fees and commissions charged on selected services. Our views on CIB have been based on gradual NIM compression, increase in fee/commission income and lower loan loss provisioning levels so we maintain our FV for CIB at EGP 52.2/share. Tap here to read the full note.

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