Monday, 5 October 2015

Is Hisham Ramez not coming back as CBE governor?

TL;DR

Hisham Ramez not coming back as CBE governor? (Speed Round)

Ibrahim Eissa returns to fighting form. (Speed Round)

Misr Qena Cement eyeing acquisition of two cement players. (Speed Round)

New Vodafone Egypt chair expected next month. (Speed Round)

USD 550 mn World Bank loan. (Speed Round)

By the Numbers + Are we on the verge of a mini-recession?

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

The leaders of Egypt and Tunisia pledged closer cooperation on regional issues including terrorism and said a political solution to the Syrian war must maintain the territorial integrity of the country. President El Sisi and his Tunisian counterpart, President Beji Caid Essebsi, made the remarks during a press conference at the end of day one of the latter’s two-day state visit. Both leaders expressed their optimism that the warring Libyan factions might accept the UN-brokered peace agreement, Al Ahram reports.

Tomorrow is a national holiday in observance of Armed Forces Day. Enterprise will be taking the day off and will return on Wednesday.

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING THIS WEEK

Pope Tawadros II is travelling to the United States at the end of this week, according to aspokesperson for the church, speaking on Sunday.

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LAST NIGHT’S TALK SHOWS

Last night’s episode of CBC Egypt’s Hona El Assima kicked-off with host Lamees El Hadidy–

–WE INTERRUPT YOUR REGULARLY-SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING TO BRING YOU THE FOLLOWING NEWS BULLETIN:

The biggest troublemaker in Egyptian media (in the best possible way) is back where he belongs: Ibrahim Eissa returned to Al Kahera Wal Nas on Sunday night in his debut episode, in what marked a bold and critical turn for the veteran newsman, who made his name as an iconoclast but who had softened his dissent over the years.

If last night’s episode is the template, Eissa is back to his more openly rebellious ways — offering a welcome relief from the monotony that is night-time talk in Egypt. As the nation stabilizes and the sense of immediate crisis has passed — and as Egyptians regain confidence in their nation’s future — we may be witnessing the beginning of a return to healthy and needed skepticism. Maybe even (shockingly) meaningful public debate. It will be incredibly positive if a space can be found in which the state and the electorate can come together to work to make Egypt better through frank and necessary constructive criticism.

Replying to a pre-recorded question from a man on the street asking where Eissa sees the country headed, the television host replied that politically, we have made progress with the new constitution. He qualified this statement by calling out those in the media joining the chorus for a constitutional amendment to curtail the powers of a parliament which has yet to be elected.

Eissa said to them: “Those who call for a constitutional amendment want Egypt to return to one-man rule, something which took a revolution to overthrow.”

Eissa said the theme of his new program is tahrir[liberation], in a nod to the name of the newspaper and television channel with which he was formerly associated. Eissa says his show will seek to ‘liberate the minds of Egyptian viewers’ from the spaces to which they’ve been confined for the past 40 years. His new format is far superior to that of his previous program on ONTV — gone are the gangly youth seated around him who were never really that interesting in the first place. The new program is broken down into segments: an introductory statement; a daily top ten list, which he will use to explore the various reasons behind a particular issue, and then replies to recorded questions from his viewers.

Eissa inaugurated his top ten list with: The top ten reasons why Ibrahim Eissa made the move from ONTV to Al Kahera Wal Nas. Starting at number 10: Al Kahera Wal Nas pays on time. Other notable entries on the list: Number 6: Al Kahera Wal Nas’ professionalism, and Number 3: Working with Tarek Nour. (Watch in Arabic, running time: 14:35).

[After the top ten segment was completed, in a slightly meta moment, we enjoyed watching our own ad for Enterprise run during this and other commercial breaks. It’s always gratifying to see Enterprise infiltrate the airwaves. (Watch our ad in Arabic, running time: 1 minute).]

Eissa spent the majority of his debut episode in an enjoyable takedown of the 1.5 mn feddan reclamation project, asking “Is this our generation’s Toshka?” in reference to a similar and ultimately unfinished project launched under former president Hosni Mubarak. On this point especially, Eissa’s criticism is very much on point. Famed urban planning and development expert David Sims has often noted that small scale informal and unlicensed reclamation efforts have actually reclaimed more desert land than all such similar government efforts combined.

The host rounded-out the episode with questions from a viewer who happens to be more or less Eissa’s doppelgänger, down to the glasses and suspenders. We look forward to watching and reviewing Eissa’s program going forward, and hope to see his constructively critical tone become a mainstay of his program — Egypt needs more people to speak out against all that which does not make sense, a commodity of which we have a near-endless supply.

–WE NOW RESUME YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMING.

The majority of Sunday night’s episode of Hona El Assema discussed the October War. Host Lamis El Hadidy began by calling on viewers “to teach younger generations about the courage of the soldiers that fought in the war.” Old footage from an interview with October War hero General Saad El Deen El Shazly was featured throughout the episode.

On Youssef Qaradawi’s warm reception at the Saudi embassy in Qatar, El Hadidy wondered aloud if this marked a shift in Saudi policy toward both the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt, an issue which we have brought up at various times in Enterprise since the ascension of both King Salman and his son Deputy Crown Prince Mohamed Bin Salman, as they had reportedly invited representatives of various regional Muslim Brotherhood groups to the kingdom in recent months.

El Hadidy then shifted gears, receiving a call-in from Pope Tawadros II about his recent visit to Ethiopia: “We [the Coptic Church] have strong ties to the Ethiopian Church… I met with a number of Ethiopian officials during my trip. We discussed the Renaissance Dam, as well as the shared interests that bind our countries.” Speaking on domestic politics, the Pope said that Copts should not run on the same ticket as Salafist Al Nour as the latter consider Copts to be non-believers. (Yasser Borhamy, the head of the Salafist Call — of which Al Nour party is the political arm — has previously stated that it is impermissible for a non-Muslim to run for parliament, according toAl Mal.

Meanwhile, Youssef El Housseiny devoted the majority of El Sada El Mohtaramoon to coverage of the 2015 parliamentary elections. The host’s guest for the night was a member of “The Youth” named Ahmed Eid, who plans to run in the upcoming elections for a seat representing the district of Imbaba.

Amr Adeeb is rumored to be returning to airwaves soon, following talks on renewing his contract with satellite network Orbit, according to unnamed sources, (Read in Arabic). We’ll keep an eye out and let you know.

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SPEED ROUND

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President Abdel Fattah El Sisi laid a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Cairo’s Nasr City on Sunday to mark 42nd anniversary of the October War Victory. He also laid wreaths at the tombs of late presidents Anwar El-Sadat and Gamal Abdel Nasser.

Who will head Egypt’s central bank after Ramez leaves? Amwal Al Ghad speculates that Hisham Ramez is not expected to extend his tenure as Governor of the CBE, citing comments Ramez himself has made, but stopping far short of confirming the governor has declined reappointment. Praising his leadership of the CBE, Amwal Al Ghad says there are “urgent challenges” facing whomever succeeds him, and lists the five perennial candidates for the job: CIB Chairman and MD Hisham Ezz El Arab, United Arab Bank’s Mohamed Barakat, Deputy Governor of the CBE Gamal Negm, NBE Chairman Hisham Okasha, and the latter’s predecessor, Tarek Amer. Ramez was appointed in January 2013, succeeding Farouk El Okda. We believe Ramez’s first term in office ends on or about 23 November 2015.

Misr Qena Cement closes-in on acquisition of two cement companies: Misr Qena is reportedly near acquiring controlling interests in two cement companies in a transaction worth EGP 500 mn, Al Borsa says, saying the publicly traded cement maker has lined-up acquisition finance from four institutions. Misr Qena’s board was expected to meet yesterday to appoint a financial advisor and authorize management to start due diligence as the company moves forward with a preliminary offer. The newspaper cites a company source as suggesting that NBE, CIB, SAIB, and Banque Misr are providing acquisition finance, drawdown of which is pending the completion of due diligence. (Read in Arabic)

Noble and Delek close to an LNG agreement with Egypt, Cypriot newspaper says: The two gas producers could pump natural gas to the Union Fenosa Gas (UFG) liquefaction plant in Damietta,In Cyprus reported. There is “very heavy interest” for Israeli gas from industrial customers in Egypt, Noble’s CFO noted, adding that as soon as the regulatory framework is signed off in Israel, Noble “can go to contracting that gas.”

Egypt signed a USD 550 mn loan agreement with the World Bank Group, Al Masry Al Youm reported. The funds will be used to finance sewage projects in villages in Beheira, Dakahliya, and Sharqiya aiming to improve infrastructure services there. This is part of a USD 2.8 bn project to improve the sewage treatment services along the River Nile’s Rosetta branch, of which the WBG is financing USD 1.1 bn over two loans. The first tranche of the loan was approved by the Bank in July, according to Ahram Online.

The African Development Bank (AfDB) is considering providing USD 130 mn in financing for a 200 MW wind farm in Egypt, sources told Amwal Al Ghad.

Forget the muted impact on oil prices — an unstable Middle East can destabilize the rest of the world in many ways, “Dr. Doom” Nouriel Roubini writes. Some conflicts may, unlike those currently witnessed, actually affect energy output. Flows of refugees and migrants will continue to destabilize Europe economically and socially, let alone frontline states like Turkey, Jordan, and Lebanon, according to Roubini. He adds that “prolonged misery and hopelessness for mns of Arab young people will create a new generation of desperate jihadists who blame the West for their despair,” warning that “some will undoubtedly find their way to Europe and the US and stage terrorist attacks.” Roubini says the West needs to rely more on diplomacy and financial resources to support growth and job creation in the Middle East instead of either relying on military force or ignoring the problem altogether.

MOVES- Vodafone Egypt’s board is expect to appoint a new chairman within the next month, reports Al Mal. The decision comes following the departure of former chairman Hatem Dowidar to the UAE’s Etisalat Group.

CIB Chairman and Managing Director Hisham Ezz Al-Arab is featured in the Wall Street Journal’s special supplemental report “Eye on Egypt,” which details the reforms and initiatives Egypt has and continues to undertake to put itself on the road to economic recovery. Find the full report, published to coincide with El Sisi’s visit to New York for the UN General Assembly last week, here in pdf format.

From the department of “This Could Never Possibly Backfire” comes the announcement that as part of the Ministry of Tourism’s upcoming promotional campaign set to begin in November, the hashtag #This_is_Egypt in English and Arabic (#هى_دى_مصر، و) will make a splash on social media, Al Borsa reports. It’s a nice idea in theory, but in practice could easily spin out of control and be hijacked by an army of internet trolls the likes of which the world has never seen.

CORRECTION: In our 2 October Weekend Edition, we put the number of Syrian refugees accepted into the United States at 451, citing older figures here. The current number of refugees resettled in the United States as of September 2015 is 1,500.

EGYPT IN THE NEWS

The top story on Egypt in the foreign press early Monday morning is news that Egyptian-Irish dual national Ibrahim Halawa’s trial has been adjourned to December. Halawa is the son of the most senior Muslim cleric in the Republic of Ireland, as reported by the BBC, and was arrested at the siege of Al Fath mosque, a site near the Rabaa protest that was being used to temporarily store the bodies of those slain in the forced dispersal in August 2013. Ibrahim Halawa was 17 at the time of his arrest. The story is also being picked by the Belfast Telegraph under the headline ‘Egypt protests teenager faces further three months without trial.’ Irish Independent notes that ‘Amnesty fears Dublin teenager Ibrahim Halawa will face ‘sham trial’‘ as well as potentially face the death penalty.

The second lead item in international coverage of Egypt continues to be reporting on Egypt’s support for Russian airstrikes in Syria.

WORTH READING

Porter’s ‘five forces’ analysis: Originally published in 1979 by then-associate professor at Harvard Business School Michael Porter, the framework put forth has since inspired an entire generation of study, criticism and applied practice. In modern practice, it might be rudimentary or a starting point, but still provides a solid basis for understanding of what makes a good industry (sugary soft drinks are highlighted) or notoriously competitive and loss-making industries, like running an airline. The five forces in brief, are three threats: substitute products or services, established rivals, and new entrants; and two forces from ‘vertical’ competition: the bargaining power of suppliers and the bargaining power of customers. (Read How competitive forces shape strategy, pdf)

Arabic op-ed: Sawiris brothers on why Egypt has failed to deliver projects pledged at EEDC: Naguib Sawiris plugs a very brief op-ed written by his brother Samih titled ‘Why the EEDC was successful, and why failed to achieve its goals.’ The short answer: We were not prepared. In a four point argument, Sawiris faults the cabinet for not analyzing or factoring in currency fluctuations and not preparing for the downsides of devaluation; not being able to provide FX to investors in a timeline manner to allow them to repatriate profits; not taking concrete steps to demonstrate that the government would meet its foreign obligations; not being blunt and accurate in addressing investors’ energy concerns. These have created a climate of confusion which repels investments, he argues. Again, the piece is short and raises more questions than it answers, but it’s asking the right questions. (Read in Arabic)

WORTH WATCHING

In case you missed it, former US Secretary of State and Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton appeared on Saturday Night Live two nights ago, playing a bartender named Valopposite Kate McKinnon, who played Clinton in the sketch. Judging from the expression on Clinton’s face, one or two lines seem to have been unexpected. (Watch, running time: 5:53)

DIPLOMACY

Ethiopia and Sudan have asked for the scheduled GERD trilateral meeting with Egypt postponed to the third week of October, Irrigation Minister Hossam Moghazi said. Ethiopia says it is busy domestically with setting up a new government. Moghazi added that he was looking to elevate the representation in the meeting to a ministerial level, as reported by Al Shorouk. Ahram Online has a much more worrisome take on the story, saying that it was Ethiopia that specifically requested the delay, and that The continuous stalling by Ethiopian officials and the withdrawal of the Dutch firm has put future negotiations in jeopardy. Ex-irrigation minister Mohamed Nasr Allam has called on the Egyptian government to appeal to the United Nations to resolve the matter due to the failure of negotiations with Ethiopia.”

Prime Minister Sherif Ismail met with Cyprus’ Ambassador to Cairo in preparation for an anticipated visit to Egypt by the Cypriot energy minister, Al Masry Al Youm reported.

President El Sisi’s visit to Japan of utmost importance -Kabil: Discussion of opportunities in the Suez Canal Development Corridor will feature heavily in President Abdel Fattah El Sisi’s upcoming visit to Japan, Trade and Industry Minister Tarek Kabil said yesterday, according to Al-Ahram.

ENERGY

Israel needs to clear antitrust hurdles quickly to bring Leviathan onstream
Steven Scheer writes a background piece explaining how Israel reached its current domestic political stalemate with regard to the development of its offshore gas field Leviathan, along with an explanation of their government’s current options. Israeli politicians were busy counting “how much they could make from [the Leviathan] gas but forgot what they have to do to make it come true”.

The Israeli public were promised that the proceeds from exporting gas would ensure a healthier public sector, business to run more efficiently, and having SME’s shift to gas instead of coal. However, “Israel was poorly prepared for a big energy discovery,” Scheer says, and changed laws repeatedly to impose higher taxes. The former antitrust David Gilo also threw a monkey wrench in their government’s plans as he had announced his intention to begin antitrust proceedings against the Leviathan partners Delek and Noble, before being forced to resign amid pressure.

Scheer notes that while Netanyahu could bring the compromise agreement reached between the Israeli government and the Leviathan partners to a vote before the Knesset, as we had reported was the next political hurdle, “Aryeh Deri, a member of the ultra-Orthodox community whose party is a linchpin in Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition, is wary. He doesn’t want to sign off until a new antitrust chief is in place and has given a second opinion. Netanyahu could try to override Deri, but he would need to win a vote to do so and only holds a one-seat majority in the 120-seat parliament. It is too risky given Deri’s coalition position. Without Deri, Netanyahu’s government could collapse. As a result, the project is effectively frozen,” Scheer writes. (Read)

Jordan seeking to purchase Zohr gas
Youm7 | 01 Oct 2015
Jordan is hoping to be able to purchase some of the gas that will be produced from the Zohr field, Jordan’s Prime Minister, Abdullah Ensour, said, according to Youm7. Ensour said relations with Egypt have never been closer and called for more cooperation economically. He also agreed with Oil Minister Tarek El Molla on the necessity to complete the linking of both countries’ electricity grids as well as the completion of the pipeline set to link Basra, Iraq to Aqaba, Jordan, along with the possibility of extending it to Egypt. (Read in Arabic)

Sterling & Wilson plans to build solar power plants in Egypt
Indian solar power company Sterling & Wilson has qualified to build two solar power plants in Egypt under a feed-in tariff, and participate in a third as part of a consortium. The company plans to construct two power plants on its own, each with 100 MW capacity. Sterling & Wilson is also reportedly participating in the construction of a 200 MW power plant in partnership with other companies. Sterling & Wilson, which operates across the Middle East, has constructed power plants that currently generate over 400 MW, and is currently working on projects expected to generate 498 MW. (Read in Arabic)

44 companies buy into tender to build 200 MW solar power plant
44 companies have applied to construct a 200 MW solar power plant in Aswan under a build-own-operate agreement. Among them: Orascom Construction, El-Sewedy, SunEdison, First Solar, Enel Energie, Gigawatt Global, Sterling & Wilson and Sun Energy. Conditions set by the New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA) call for the company to have generated at least 50 MW of photovoltaic energy, and to have built at least three power stations. Sources within the energy investment community have complained about NREA’s rules making tender applicants conduct a feasibility study for the project, a fact that they say caused delays in the 200 MW power plant in Kom Ombo. (Read in Arabic)

INFRASTRUCTURE

Finance ministry to issue PPP tender next week to upgrade IT infrastructure at the Real Estate Registry
The Public and Private Sector Cooperation Unit at the Finance Ministry will issue a tender to network, upgrade and modernize the IT infrastructure of the offices of the Real Estate Registry. Ater Hanoura, head of the unit, said a number of local and international consortiums have expressed interest in bidding for the project. (Read in Arabic)

BASIC MATERIALS + COMMODITIES

EGAS offers to cover half of the steel and fertiliser factories’ gas needs at old prices, import the rest
EGAS has offered two fertiliser producers and one steel plant the option to supply them with half of their natural gas requirements at the government’s pre-set prices and have the remainder imported. Companies will be expected to cover the cost of the imported gas in full. A source added that EGAS is willing to extend the offer sector-wide. (Read in Arabic)

Industry Ministry permits the export of white rice
The Trade and Industry Ministry has allowed the export of white rice for the coming six months, with the caveat of a new export fee of EGP 2,000 per ton in hard currency to be deposited at a CBE-regulated bank. Exporters must also issue weekly reports of their shipment figures. The Industry Minister stated that the decision was reached from the ministerial economic group based on data which showed a surplus of rice harvests. This comes as the Federation of Egyptian Chambers of Commerce lobbied criticisms at the government concerning their taxing of imports/exports. (Read in Arabic)

MANUFACTURING

Eagle Chemicals to finalize EGP 250 mn polymers plant in late 2016
Eagle Chemicals is targeting finishing building its EGP 250 mn polymers plant before the end of 2016. Amwal Al Ghad describes the plant as the largest in the Middle East. The company said the plant aims to produce 160k tonnes annually, 60% of which will be directed towards exports. Eagle Chemicals also added that the main impediments to their operations are the shortage of USD liquidity and customs restrictions on raw material imports that now require chemical testing before obtaining clearances. (Read in Arabic)

HEALTH + EDUCATION

Discipline key to improving education system: Minister of Education
Al Ahram sat down for an interview with new Education Minister Dr. El Helaly El Sherbeny, delving into a range of issues, the most important of which was the minister’s strategy for improving Egypt’s poorly functioning educational system and his position vis-a-vis private tutoring. “Returning discipline to Egypt’s educational system will be my primary goal over the coming period,” explained the minister, adding that “this policy would apply to both teachers and student.” Additionally the minister plans to eliminate Egyptian parents’ dependence on private tutoring for the instruction of their children, by increasing Egyptian families’ confidence in the educational system and shutting down any unlicensed institutions that offer these services to students. (Read in Arabic)

Note: Perennial calls to shut down private tutoring centers in general and unlicensed centers in particular have been a mainstay promise of education ministers in Egypt for decades.

TOURISM

Orascom and FTI set up four weekly flights between Germany and Hurghada
Orascom Hotels and Development and German tourism company FTI have set up four weekly flights between Germany and Hurghada through Sun Express Airlines, under the promotional moniker “El Gouna Express,” to lure a higher number of travelers and visitors to the Red Sea. Orascom Holdings Chairman Samih Sawiris praised the move, calling it a new beginning to help market and promote tourism in Germany, a key exporter of tourism to Egypt. He called for more promotions of this sort to help boost tourism figures. (Read in Arabic)

OTHER BUSINESS NEWS OF NOTE

Disputes between Investment and Housing Ministry highlight problems with the Investment Benefits and Guarantees Law
A dispute over tender offers for plots of land totaling 1,500 feddan is highlighting a growing rift between the Ministries of Housing and Investment over the application of the Benefits and Guarantees Law. Sources within the Housing Ministry have accused GAFI of delaying approvals and dithering over issuing tenders for the plots of land. The law, which calls for the formation of executive regulations to govern the one-stop shop, instructs both the Investment Ministry and the governing body in charge of the land to coordinate efforts on expediting the investment process. Housing Ministry sources claim the law is “too centralized”, confuses the role of GAFI and other bodies, and adds another bureaucratic complication to what was intended to be an expediency process. (Read in Arabic)

Al Nour candidate demands increased monitoring of agricultural cooperatives
Al Nour party parliamentary candidate Hamada Soliman has called on the government to increase its supervision of agricultural cooperatives throughout the republic. The cooperatives have been unable to deliver fertilizers to farmers, decreasing crop yield, explained Soliman. Farmers have only been able to purchase 75% of the fertilizers they require, he added.(Read in Arabic)

EGYPT POLITICS + ECONOMICS

British businesses looking to invest in Egypt –SIS
The British business community is interested in expanding in the Egyptian market, SIS reported. The state news service said that the British Middle East Association hosted a luncheon in honour of the Egyptian Ambassador to the United Kingdom Naser Kamel, where he highlighted political and economic achievements as well as the structural reforms undertaken by the Egyptian government. “A number of parliamentarians, managers and representatives of banks and major companies operating in the fields of energy, CIT, military and engineering industries have attended the luncheon,” SIS said. (Read)

Salman in review of state-owned companies?
Al Mal suggests Investment Minister Ashraf Salman met with the Chairman of the Chemical Industries Holding Company as part of a series of meetings he will have with the leadership of state-owned holding companies to “review their financial positions, inspect their internal governance systems, and to help evaluate future projects and set future goals.” We’ll be looking for signs the meetings are anything more than the usual end-of-year sitdowns, but expect little in the way of meaningful change to emerge from the talks. (Read in Arabic)

Jordan to apologize to Egypt over attack on restaurant worker
The Jordanian government plans to issue a formal apology to Egyptian restaurant worker Khaled Osman who was attacked by a Jordanian parliamentarian in Aqaba. “My country will conduct a comprehensive investigation into the matter. The Jordanian people have great respect for their Egyptian brethren,” said Ahmed Safdi, vice president of the Jordanian parliament. (Read in Arabic) Ahram Online has a very detailed take on the assault, and / or you can just watch the video here: (Watch in Arabic, running time: 3:59)

Lawyers for Democracy group publishes report on human rights in Egypt during September
The Arabic Network for Human Rights Information published a report by an affiliated group called Lawyers for Democracy tracking the state human rights in Egypt for the month of September. Its leading point concerns the elections, criticizing the decision to have candidates retake and pay for medical check-ups as being discriminatory against poorer candidates. Other human rights issues discussed in the report include military trials, death sentences, protests and the continued arrest of prominent activists.

NATIONAL SECURITY

Port Said prison trial clashes postponed
The “Port Said prison clashes” trial has been postponed to 5 October, reports Daily News Egypt. “The defendants are accused of killing police officers Ahmed Al-Balky, Ayman Abdel Azim and 40 others, as well as injuring over 150 people from between 26-28 January, 2013.” (Read)

Police captain and conscript shot dead in North Sinai
Two police officers, a captain and a conscript were killed by militants in North Sinai on Saturday. The attack was carried by the Revolutionary Punishment terrorist group and Daesh affiliate Wilayat Sina, reports Daily News Egypt. “Hours after the incident “State of Sinai” extremist militant group released a statement on social media accounts claiming the attack and saying it fired at a checkpoint outside the Al-Arish Third police station.”(Read)

ON YOUR WAY OUT

The opening of the USD 650 mn Abu Dhabi’s branch of the Louvre Museum has been postponed until next year, Reuters reported, citing more building work being required. Originally set to open in 2012, the chairman of the state-owned Tourism Development and Investment Company said the project would now open in late 2016 without specifying the reason. The Abu Dhabi branch of the Guggenheim is set to open in 2017.

Genoub El-Wadi Petroleum Holding Company plans to supply 193,000 homes in Upper Egypt with natural gas by year’s end, said company president Abu Bakr Ibrahim, reports Al Ahram.

What’s the difference between goths and emos? The goth kids from South Park explain this, one of the more pressing questions of our time. (Watch, running time: 38 seconds, mild profanity).

BY THE NUMBERS
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QUICK FACT: Tourists spent 13.7% more nights in Egypt during June 2015 than they did in the same month last year.


USD CBE auction (Sunday, 04 October): 7.7301 (unchanged since Sunday, 05 July)
USD parallel market (Sunday, 04 October): 8.05 (unchanged since Thursday, day, 01 October, Reuters)

EGX30 (Sunday): 7263.29 (-0.65%)
Turnover: EGP 183.4 mn (61% below the 90-day average)
EGX 30 year-to-date: -18.63%

Foreigners: Net Long | +0.7 mn EGP
Regional: Net Long | + 5.6 mn EGP
Local: Net Short | – 6.3 mn EGP

Retail: 77.5% of total trades | 78.8% of buyers | 76.3% of sellers
Institutions: 22.5% of total trades | 21.2% of buyers | 23.7% of sellers

Foreign: 10.7% of total | 10.9% of buyers | 10.5% of sellers
Regional: 7.0% of total | 8.5% of buyers | 5.5% of sellers
Domestic: 82.3% of total | 80.6% of buyers | 84.0% of sellers


***
PHAROS VIEW

Short equities as Egypt prepares to fight a G1 crisis

The Central Bank of Egypt is refraining from further easing despite obvious downside risks to growth and inflation. Why? In our view, there is only one plausible answer: The CBE is launching a preemptive strike against the so-called “G1 currency crisis”.

If Egypt is facing a G1 crisis, then Brazil could provide clues on the outlook for 2016. Brazil is in the middle of a G1 crisis. In 2015, the country is expected to suffer from its worst GDP contraction (e. -3%) in 25 years and the unemployment rate is at a 5-year high, mainly due to the plunge in commodity prices and the corruption scandal that marred Petrobras. Yet, despite the recession, the Central Bank of Brazil has already been raising policy rates for 2.5 years to combat the crash in the Real versus the USD (-35% in 2015YTD alone) and limit the pass-through of a weaker Real to consumer prices. During the process, MSCI Brazil plunged 50% y/y in USD terms to rank the third worst performing market during the period, after Greece (-66%) and Colombia (-52%).

This note is not intended to trigger panic among equity investors. Unlike Brazil, Egypt is a net beneficiary from lower international commodity prices. However, it is only meant to signalpotentially serious headwinds to equity investors in Q4-15/early 2016 if the Egyptian government and CBE decide to be ahead of the “crisis curve” by triggering a mini-recession in the near-term.

For more background and a full discussion of what a G1 crisis really is, click here.
***


WTI: USD 45.62 (+0.18%)
Brent: USD 48.28 (+0.31%)
Gold: USD 1,137.63 / troy ounce (+0.05%)

TASI: 7,370.7 (+0.4%)
ADX: 4,517.5 (-0.1%)
DFM: 3,594.1 (-0.7%)
KSE Weighted Index: 385.9 (-0.2%)
QE: 11,514.1 (+0.5%)
MSM: 5,802.5 (+0.2%)

 

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