Italy is the eurozone’s “biggest vulnerability” now that Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi is determined to defy the EU and pump bns of EUR into the country’s troubled banking system, according to the FT (paywall). A referendum on constitutional reform in Italy in October is “the single biggest risk on the European political landscape this year,” (bigger even than Brexit) Citi wrote in a research report, considering Renzi has wagered his job on the outcome.

But if it had to happen, Brexit probably came at the best time considering the global economy was in reasonably good shape, according to the latest Fulcrum nowcast models, Gavyn Davies writes in a blog piece for the FT. “Overall, global growth seems firm enough to shrug off the Brexit risk, provided that it is confined mainly to the UK and its direct trading relationships,” he writes. IMF head Christine Lagarde is equally optimistic, saying Brexit will give the EU more room for reform, according to the FT (paywall). “I believe Europeans will come out of Brexit on top,” she said at a business conference in Aix-en-Provence on Sunday.

Just in case you thought we’d end on a high note: New chief executive of metals and mining giant Rio Tinto Jean-Sébastien Jacques tells the FT (paywall) on Sunday that there is no end in sight for the commodities downturn. “Oversupply is there in all commodities, let’s be clear,” he said. “The first one that may come out of the oversupply is copper. If you look at the others — iron ore, coal and so on — there is a long way to go. Our view is that prices will remain under pressure with lots of volatility.”