Some of the world’s more vulnerable economies are being forced to take drastic measures as they struggle with fresh USD shortages, according to a Bloomberg article which namechecks Sri Lanka, Nigeria, and Pakistan, which are struggling to get their hands on raw materials and medicine thanks to hard-currency shortages. Pakistani factories have paused operations until they can get their hands on the needed hard currency to import raw materials. Nigerian airports are preparing for a drought after some international carriers suspended flights due being unable to repatriate USD. And Sri Lanka is postponing non-urgent surgeries due to a shortage of drugs and medical supplies.

The worst is yet to come: “There’s a real crisis brewing in these troubled nations and for some, things can still get even worse … Investors will need to be even more vigilant in screening for vulnerability and differentiating country risk to avoid being surprised by the next Ghana or Sri Lanka,” one EMs strategist said.

Egypt the exception? While strategists are advising investors to avoid some troubled nations that reached out for IMF support, some are more hopeful on Egypt. “Egypt could be an opportunity if the IMF program is successful at supporting the economy while tough reforms are implemented,” one EM strategist at Wells Fargo told the news outlet.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

• Commodity traders look to have made record gains last year: Commodity traders likely piled up a record-breaking USD 115.6 bn in gross margin in 2022 — up 61% on 2021 — as prices soared in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg)
• Predictions for triple-digit oil as demand surges: Commodities giant Vitol and Goldman Sachs are expecting Brent to rise above USD 100 a barrel later this year as demand surges following the end of covid-19 lockdowns in China. Global demand for oil is expected to reach a record 101.7 mn barrels per day this year. (Bloomberg)
• EM guru Mark Mobius turns away from China thanks to gov’t restrictions: B’naire emerging markets investor and longtime China champion Mark Mobius told Fox Business he’s pivoting to other markets including India and Brazil after finding himself unable to get his money out of China due to the country’s capital controls. (Fox Business)

	EGX30	16,828	-0.1% (YTD: +15.3%)
	USD (CBE)	Buy 30.67	Sell 30.77
	USD at CIB	Buy 30.67	Sell 30.77
	Interest rates CBE	16.25% deposit	17.25% lending
	Tadawul	10,411	+1.3% (YTD: -0.6%)
	ADX	9,907	+0.4% (YTD: -3.0%)
	DFM	3,420	-0.5% (YTD: +2.5%)
	S&P 500	4,046	+1.6% (YTD: +5.4%)
	FTSE 100	7,947	+0.0% (YTD: +6.7%)
	Euro Stoxx 50	4,295	+1.3% (YTD: +13.2%)
	Brent crude	USD 85.83	+1.3%
	Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.01	+8.8%
	Gold	USD 1,854.60	+0.8%
	BTC	USD 22,488	+1.2% (YTD: +36.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.1% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.39 bn (31.5% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net buyers. The index is up 15.3% YTD.

In the green: Telecom Egypt (+7.7%), Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (+1.9%) and Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (+1.0%).

In the red: Madinet Nasr Housing and Development (-2.3%), Qalaa Holdings (-2.2%) and GB Auto (-1.8%).

Asian markets are mixed this morning: Chinese stocks are nursing losses to start the week while shares in Japan, South Korea and Australia are all comfortably in the green. Stock futures point to a mixed open in Western markets today: European bourses are on course to rise at the opening bell, while shares in London and New York will open in the red.