Commodities markets saw an influx of retail investors in 2022, lured by the outsized returns in a year that saw historic levels of volatility, the Financial Times reports. Daily average trading volumes in CME’s gold, crude, silver and copper micro contracts surged 93% y-o-y in 2022 — a year that saw USD 30 tn of value wiped from global stocks and bonds. Commodities were one of only two asset classes to post gains in 2022, and according to Bank of America have been the best-performing major asset class for the past two years.

Don’t get burned: Market participants and analysts are warning inexperienced retail investors that while returns are high, the market is volatile and largely dominated by specialized players. Some companies have tried to encourage retail investors to take on more risk by offering them leveraged exposure, arguing that they should have the same options available as institutional players.

WHAT TO EXPECT THIS YEAR? A US recession and an abrupt u-turn at the Fed: That’s what the majority of 23 large financial institutions surveyed by the Wall Street Journal are predicting for 2023. More than two-thirds of trading firms and investment banks — including Barclays, Bank of America, and UBS — expect an economic downturn later this year, thanks mainly to the Federal Reserve, which has been rapidly raising interest rates to cool rampant inflation.

Rate cuts in 2H 2023? A majority expect a recession to force the central bank to reverse course and cut rates in the third or fourth quarter of the year. Fed officials have indicated that they will continue hiking rates to 5.0-5.5% this year from a current 4.25-4.50%. According to most forecasts, shares on the benchmark S&P 500 index will finish the year 5% above current levels in the event of a dovish pivot.

Optimism is in short supply: Just five banks expect the US economy to avoid recession entirely in 2023 and 2024, including JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs and HSBC.

Israel hikes rates to levels not seen since 2008: In the first sign that global monetary tightening is set to stick around well into the new year, the Bank of Israel saw in 2023 with a fresh 50 basis-point rise in interest rates to hit 3.75%, Bloomberg reports.

	EGX30	14,961	+2.5% (YTD: +2.5%)
	USD (CBE)	Buy 24.70	Sell 24.79
	USD at CIB	Buy 24.70	Sell 24.77
	Interest rates CBE	16.25% deposit	17.25% lending
	Tadawul	10,578	+0.3% (YTD: +1.0%)
	ADX	Closed	Closed
	DFM	Closed	Closed
	S&P 500	Closed	Closed
	FTSE 100	Closed	Closed
	Euro Stoxx 50	3,848	+1.4% (YTD: +1.3%)
	Brent crude	USD 85.91	+0.0%
	Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 4.47	-1.8%
	Gold	USD 1,826.20	+0.0%
	BTC	USD 16,712	+0.7% (YTD: +1.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 2.5% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.63 bn (5.5% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 2.5% YTD.

In the green: Alexandria Containers and Cargo Handling (+10.1%), Ezz Steel (+9.5.%) and Heliopolis Housing (+9.3%).

In the red: Juhayna (-2.0%), Telecom Egypt (-1.5%) and Orascom Construction (-0.2%).

Asian markets are mostly down in early trading this morning, while futures suggest major European and US indices will also largely open in the red later on today.