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Thursday, 13 October 2022

External debt dips from all time high in 4Q FY 2021-22

Egypt’s external debt dropped 1.3% q-o-q to USD 155.7 bn during the fourth quarter of last fiscal year (from April-June 2022), down from an all-time high of USD 157.8 bn the preceding quarter, according to central bank figures.

Debt is still up on last year: The figure is up some 12.9% y-o-y from the same quarter in the 2020-2021 fiscal year. Egypt’s external position is coming under significant pressure this year thanks to a perfect storm of surging commodity prices, rising interest rates, a red-hot greenback and turmoil in the financial markets. The EGP has lost around a quarter of its value against the USD this year, making it even more difficult to pay out our debts.

IMF support should be just around the corner: We’re waiting with baited breath for an imminent announcement on the expected emergency loan from the Fund, which will in part help us service our external debt. We could be getting anywhere from USD 3-5 bn if BNP Paribas estimates are to be believed.

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