Tuesday, 4 October 2022

THIS EVENING: PMI is still in contraction, but didn’t change from August + Global equity rally continues

Good afternoon, wonderful people. It’s a short workweek, so we’re glad it’s almost-WEDNESDAY — meaning the long weekend is just around the corner. We have what we like to call a Goldilocks news day, where it’s not a torrential downpour but we can’t say it’s all quiet, either.

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Before we get into it-
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THE BIG STORY TODAY

PMI was flat m-o-m, remaining in contraction territory: Activity in Egypt’s non-oil private sector remained in contraction territory in September, but remained unchanged from August, according to S&P Global’s latest purchasing managers’ index (pdf). Continued inflationary pressures and import restrictions, coupled with weaker consumer demand, weighed on last month’s reading, which was flat at 47.6 last month. This is still below the 50.0 mark that separates expansion from contraction, marking the 22nd consecutive month that the gauge indicates a decline in Egypt’s private sector activity.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD

Global financial markets are once again dominating the conversation in the international business press this afternoon, picking up where we left off this morning. Global equity markets are building on yesterday’s rally, with Europe’s Stoxx 600 rising 2.39%, while futures for the US’ Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all rising ahead of the opening bell. The story is on the front pages of the Financial Times, Wall Street Journal, and CNBC.


** CATCH UP QUICK on the top stories from today’s EnterpriseAM:

  • The IMF could reach staff-level agreements on loans to Egypt and Tunisia “within days or weeks, hard to predict but it will be very soon,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said yesterday.
  • Kuwait’s Agility Logistics plans to invest USD 60 mn to set up and operate two customs and logistics services hubs in Ain Sokhna and East Port Said.
  • ​​The World Bank has approved a USD 400 mn financing agreement to boost the performance of the country’s transport and logistics sectors and support a shift towards low-carbon rail systems.

???? CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

We’re approaching the final long weekend of the year: Banks and the stock market will be off on Thursday, 6 October, in observance of Armed Forces Day, according to the Central Bank of Egypt and the EGX. The cabinet had already announced the holiday for both public and private sector workers. For those who usually work Saturdays, this coming Saturday, 8 October, is also an official holiday to mark the Prophet Muhammad’s birthday.

Those are the final holidays for 2022, boys and girls. Your next day off will be 1 January (falling on a Sunday and traditionally a holiday for banks) and then Coptic Christmas (January 7, which falls on a Saturday in 2023).

UPCOMING NEWS TRIGGERS-

  • Foreign reserves: The Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) should be out with September’s foreign reserves figures later this week. Reserves remained flat at around USD 33.1 bn in August, having fallen 20% since March due to headwinds caused by the war in Ukraine and tightening financial conditions.
  • Inflation to notch new highs? Analysts are expecting inflation to have continued rising in September due to the weakening EGP after reaching highs not seen since November 2018 in August. We’ll find out when Capmas and the CBE release the figures next week.

Fuel prices to rise this month? We’re expecting the government to hike fuel prices for the seventh consecutive quarter when the fuel pricing committee meets this month. Fuel prices have risen by as much as 28% over the past 18 months in response to heightened international oil prices, which surged earlier this year on the back of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

☀️ TOMORROW’S WEATHER- Fall weather looks like it’s here to stay. You can expect sunny skies and cooler weather this weekend. Look for the mercury to peak at 30°C on Thursday in the capital city (28°C in Alexandria) and an overnight low of 17°C. The long-range forecast on our favorite weather app shows temps won’t break above 28°C in Cairo during the day for the next two weeks.

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