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Sunday, 28 August 2022

Advice from a former central bank governor

A lot of economy + finance talk on the airwaves last night: The challenges facing newly-appointed Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) governor Hassan Abdalla are still getting a lot of attention from the talking heads. Former CBE governor Mahmoud Abou El Oyoun went on Ala Mas’ouleety (watch, runtime: 3:27 | 3:24 | 6:20 | 4:37) to off analysis of the current issues facing Abdalla and the government.

The gist of it: We’re in a crisis, and the CBE and government need to respond accordingly. This includes revisiting import restrictions that are currently stifling importers and businesses, postponing repayments for bank loans like during the covid-19 pandemic, and putting some public spending on the backburner, Abou El Oyoun said. The timing of implementing the rules requiring importers to use letters of credit (L/Cs) to purchase non-essential goods, instead of the previous system of documentary collection, at a time when the USD is gaining strength, was not ideal, he adds. “The new CBE governor now has a chance to calm the markets by exempting importers from having to issue L/Cs for urgent supplies like spare parts, raw materials, and car components,” he notes.

These measures would help stave off inflation — which, albeit harmful, is transitory, according to Abou El Oyoun — and relieve some of the pressure on people and the private sector, Abou El Oyoun said. It will also help reinstill business confidence, which has been on the decline over the past few months, he added. Helping the private sector by providing additional incentives like streamlining and accelerating operational license procedures will also help, he suggested.

Two other things were on the talking heads’ minds: coordination between the gov’t and the CBE + hope for some “positive measures” that could be coming our way. Ala Mas’ouleety’s Ahmed Moussa (watch, runtime: 7:39) for the second time suggested some “positive measures” from the CBE could be coming our way soon, while Banque Misr Chairman Mohamed El Etreby suggested the same in a phone-in with Salet El Tahrir (watch, runtime: 11:40) (though neither elaborated much on what they meant). Key cabinet members have already been holding meetings with Abdalla in recent days, stoking expectations among business leaders that they may be looking for ways to ease the import restrictions that have hobbled everyone from manufacturers to retailers.

Also on the airwaves last night:

  • Prime Minister Moustafa Madbouly’s participation in the Tokyo International Conference on African Development (TICAD) in Tunisia yesterday also got some attention. (Sada El Balad: watch, runtime: 4:14 | DMC: watch, runtime: 5:42)
  • The private sector — particularly microbusinesses and SMEs — needs new incentives from the government, Fakhry El Fiky, economist and head of the House Planning Committee, said. (Salat El Tahrir | watch, runtime: 5:26)

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