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Sunday, 3 July 2022

Prepare for “stratospheric” oil prices?

Oil could reach a “stratospheric” USD 380 a barrel if Russia continues to slash output to EU countries in response to escalating Western sanctions, JPMorgan analysts warned in a note to clients cited by Bloomberg. G7 nations have been working towards implementing a price cap on Russian oil in a bid to tamp down on global price surges and tighten sanctions against Moscow. “The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia might choose not to participate and instead retaliate by reducing exports,” the analysts wrote. “It is likely that the government could retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West. The tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side.”

The breakdown: Russia could realistically cut supplies by 5 mn barrels (which is the worst case scenario that could push prices up to USD 380), while a 3 mn-barrel cut to daily supplies would push benchmark London crude prices to USD 190. Brent crude is currently trading at USD 111 a barrel, down from its post-invasion highs but significantly above where it was before the war.

Up

EGX30

9,226

+0.5% (YTD: -22.8%)

Up

USD (CBE)

Buy 18.75

Sell 18.83

Up

USD at CIB

Buy 18.78

Sell 18.84

None

Interest rates CBE

11.25% deposit

12.25% lending

Down

Tadawul

11,523

-1.7% (YTD: +2.1%)

Down

ADX

9,345

-0.3% (YTD: +10.1%)

Down

DFM

3,202

-0.7% (YTD: +0.2%)

Up

S&P 500

3,825

+1.1% (YTD: -19.7%)

None

FTSE 100

7,169

0.0% (YTD: -2.9%)

Down

Euro Stoxx 50

3,448

-0.2% (YTD: -19.8%)

Up

Brent crude

USD 111.63

+2.4%

Up

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 5.73

+5.6%

Down

Gold

USD 1,801.50

-0.3%

Down

BTC

USD 19,309

-0.2% (YTD: -53.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.5% during Wednesday’s session on turnover of EGP 554 mn (33.2% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 22.8% YTD.

In the green: GB Auto (+4.7%), Talaat Moustafa Group (+4.0%) and Rameda (+3.8%).

In the red: Cleopatra Hospital (-2.1%), Orascom Construction (-1.9%) and Heliopolis Housing (-1.0%).

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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