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Sunday, 27 March 2022

Investors exit EM equities, global IPOs plunge as Ukraine fallout + rising rates spook the markets

EM funds are seeing heavy outflows on the back of the global uncertainty: Emerging-market equity funds have lost a combined USD 8.1 bn over the past four weeks, while USD 5.7 bn has been drained from EM bond funds, Reuters reports, citing data from Refinitiv Lipper. War in Ukraine — and the resultant squeeze on food and energy prices — has seen investors pull back from risky EMs, with bond outflows as of last week hitting USD 14.3 bn since the beginning of the year. It’s all a far cry from 2021, when EM equity and debt funds recorded combined inflows of more than USD 300 bn.

JPMorgan has downgraded EM local currency debt to “underweight” and recommended selling, according to Reuters. Analysts at the investment bank reckon that EM fixed income assets have lost 6-9% of their value since the onset of the war, which has added to pre existing concerns about rising interest rates and surging inflation.

Global IPOs have plunged 70% y-oy so far in 2022 as the war in Ukraine and rising interest rates put a lid on investor appetite, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. “This is probably the worst time in five years in terms of market sentiment,”said Li Hang, a senior official at CLSA brokerage.

But guess who’s bucking the trend? The Middle East is the “one bright spot” in global capital markets, said Andree Chakhtoura, head of investment banking for MENA at Bank of America. “There is a wider and deeper market now than there has ever been before,” she said.

FROM THE REGION-

Dubai’s main utilities firm could raise some USD 2.2 bn in the country’s biggest IPO in 15 years, Bloomberg reports.

The IPO kicks off Dubai’s plans to list 10 state-owned companies in a bid to close the gap with neighboring markets Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, which saw listings soar last year on the back of an IPO boom.

More and more from ADQ: The Abu Dhabi wealth fund has a USD 300 mn VC fund with Turkey Wealth Fund (TWF), according to a press release. The Turkey Technology Fund-ADQ TWF will “invest in venture capital funds and high-growth potential companies in Turkey,” including existing or new firms operating in major sectors such as energy and utilities, healthcare, food and agriculture, mobility, and logistics. This comes a week after the sovereign agreed to invest USD 2 bn into EGX-listed companies.

Down

EGX30

11,709

-0.3% (YTD: -2.0%)

Up

USD (CBE)

Buy 18.26

Sell 18.36

Up

USD at CIB

Buy 18.25

Sell 18.35

None

Interest rates CBE

9.25% deposit

10.25% lending

Up

Tadawul

12,948

+0.0% (YTD: +14.8%)

Up

ADX

9,769

+0.3% (YTD: +15.1%)

Up

DFM

3,412

+1.0% (YTD: +6.8%)

Up

S&P 500

4,543

+0.5% (YTD: -4.7%)

Up

FTSE 100

7,483

+0.2% (YTD: +1.3%)

Up

Brent crude

USD 120.65

+1.4%

Up

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 5.57

+3.2%

Down

Gold

USD 1,960

-0.4%

Up

BTC

USD 44,452

+0.1% (as of midnight)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.3% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.36 bn (29% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 2.0% YTD.

In the green: Sidi Kerir Petrochem (+5.0%), Eastern Company (+4.4%) and Orascom Development Egypt (+2.7%).

In the red: Orascom Construction (-2.9%), Ezz Steel (-2.8%) and TMG Holding (-1.9%).

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