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Thursday, 3 March 2022

Russia’s war continues to reverberate through commodities + equities

Commodities spiral as traders avoid Russian exports: The Russia-Ukraine war has pushed global commodities markets to the edge, fueling shortages and quickening already-high global inflation, according to Bloomberg. Wheat prices yesterday rose to their highest since 2008, while oil passed USD 112 per barrel, and European natural gas rose as much as 60% to hit an all-time record. Even though there aren’t any direct sanctions on Russian commodities, traders are increasingly deciding that doing business with the politically isolated country is not worth the risk, due to banking sanctions already in place, fears of potential new restrictions on Russian exports, and concerns that dealing with Moscow could damage their reputations.

MAKING MATTERS WORSE? The US is considering imposing sanctions on Russia's oil and gas, but “not right now,” Reuters reported White House officials as saying.

Meanwhile, the Moscow Exchange is still closed, marking its longest pause since October 1998, according to Bloomberg. In an attempt to keep local assets from plunging after the US and Europe imposed harsh sanctions, Russia kept its stock market shut for the third day in a row yesterday, according to a Bank of Russia statement.

The country’s sovereign wealth fund is preparing to buy USD 10 bn worth of local stocks when the exchange reopens in an attempt to shore up the market, Bloomberg reports.

And Sberbank Austria is the first banking victim of Russia-targeted sanctions: The Austrian unit of Russia’s biggest lender went into insolvency yesterday, reports the Financial Times. Sberbank announced it would withdraw from Europe completely following the news, with plans to sell off or wind down all its EU operations amid “an exceptional outflow of funds and a number of safety concerns regarding [subsidiaries’] employees and offices.”

Ukraine has raised over USD 277 mn from the sale of war bonds issued yesterday. The funds “will be used to meet the needs of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and to ensure the uninterrupted provision of the state’s financial needs under the war,” the Ukrainian Finance Ministry said in a tweet. The ministry offered two bonds, one with a one-year tenure and a yield of 11%, and the second with a two-month tenure and 10% yield. The country is on the hunt for more ways to raise foreign currency and is currently in talks with the IMF and the World Bank, Ukraine’s debt chief told Bloomberg. In a joint statement, the two global lenders said they were looking at preparing USD bns in support for Ukraine over the coming months, with decisions to be made this week and next.

Up

EGX30

11,189

-0.8% (YTD: -6.4%)

None

USD (CBE)

Buy 15.66

Sell 15.76

None

USD at CIB

Buy 15.66

Sell 15.76

None

Interest rates CBE

8.25% deposit

9.25% lending

Down

Tadawul

12,655

-0.2% (YTD: +12.2%)

Up

ADX

9,680

+1.7% (YTD: +14%)

Up

DFM

3,468

+2.1% (YTD: +8.5%)

Up

S&P 500

4,387

+1.9% (YTD: -8.0%)

Up

FTSE 100

7,430

+1.4% (YTD: +0.6%)

Up

Brent crude

USD 112.93

+7.6%

Up

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 4.82

+1.2%

Up

Gold

USD 1,930

+0.4%

Up

BTC

USD 44,065

+0.2% (as of midnight)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 fell 0.8% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 829 mn (17% below the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is down 6.4% YTD.

In the green: Qalaa Holdings (+3.6%), CIRA (+2.9%) and Telecom Egypt (+2.8%).

In the red: Palm Hills Development (-3.1%), Cleopatra Hospital (-2.7%) and Rameda (-2.7%).

Asian markets are up across the board in early trading this morning. Futures are less optimistic for Wall Street and in Europe, where major indices are all set to open in the red after making gains yesterday on the back of reassurances for gradual rate hikes from the US Fed.

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