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Sunday, 19 December 2021

Inflation officially isn’t transitory anymore

Scrap the “transitory” talk: Inflation is now “persistent,” according to the world’s most influential central banks, who cemented their hawkish turn in last week’s final policy meetings of the year, the Financial Times reports. The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank slashed covid-era asset purchases at their respective meetings, while the Bank of England and Norway’s central bank raised interest rates, as did nine emerging market economies. Worries over inflation are driving these moves, though some economists told the salmon-coloured paper that officials may have underestimated the threat Omicron represents to developed economies amid their quick pivot to tighten policy.

Volatility in the stock markets stepped up a notch following the Fed’s announcement, with the S&P 500 falling 1% and the Dow Jones slipping 1.5% on Friday, Bloomberg reports, as a rising USD and flattening yield curve on treasuries had investors fretting about the impact of higher borrowing costs on the economy. That could mean an end to 2021’s long bull run on equities, particularly for high-value tech stocks (your Apples, Teslas and Amazons), the outlet reports — though innovation-stock guru Cathie Wood insisted that such stocks are not in a bubble, but rather in “deep value territory,” meaning they still hold long-term growth potential despite current volatility.

One country that could go against the trend is China, where JPMorgan analyst Marko Kolanovic expects stocks to rise almost 40% in 2022, according to Bloomberg. He’s not alone: Analysts at Goldman, UBS, HSBC and BlackRock are all expecting policymakers to intervene and support the economy next year following this year’s regulatory clampdowns that have depressed valuations of Chinese assets. Morgan Stanley strategists beg to differ, saying that many of the factors that crushed China’s financial markets this year — including the crisis in the property sector, deteriorating relations with the US, and overbearing regulation — will continue to weigh on markets.

Up

EGX30

11,668

+0.4% (YTD: +7.6%)

None

USD (CBE)

Buy 15.66

Sell 15.76

None

USD at CIB

Buy 15.66

Sell 15.76

None

Interest rates CBE

8.25% deposit

9.25% lending

Up

Tadawul

11,312

+1.5% (YTD: +30.2%)

Up

ADX

8,856

+0.4% (YTD: +75.5%)

Up

DFM

3,273

+0.6% (YTD: +31.4%)

Down

S&P 500

4,621

-1.0% (YTD: +23.0%)

Up

FTSE 100

7,630

+0.1% (YTD: +12.5%)

Down

Brent crude

USD 70.86

-2.1%

Down

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.69

-2.0%

Up

Gold

USD 1,804.90

+0.4%

Up

BTC

USD 46,713.56

+1.6%

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 0.4% at Thursday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.41 bn (2% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 7.6% YTD.

In the green: Palm Hills Development (+7.2%), Rameda (+5.1%) and Heliopolis Housing (+4.8%).

In the red: CIB (-1.5%), CIRA (-1.0%) and Ezz Steel (-0.7%).

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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