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Friday, 5 November 2021

Think you’re too smart to fall for conspiracies?

The people who believe conspiracy theories must be nutjobs, right? It seems like it should be impossible for a sensible human being to acknowledge the validity of some of these wacky propositions, but we’re all probably more susceptible to them than we think. Their appeal lies in their presenting a neatly packaged explanation to distressing, unanswered, or otherwise pressing questions that are perhaps largely ignored by mainstream media. There are a number of other reasons our brains latch on to illogical tales of conspiracy.

Making sense of chaos: We live in a world in which we are constantly bombarded with information: our phones, TVs, and radios are on 24/7, and we’re obsessively refreshing our social media feeds. This sensory and informational overload can lead to a feeling of anxiety, as our brain isn’t capable of processing all the information we’re feeding it. So it sometimes takes a “shortcut,” meaning that instead of thinking things through rationally it just believes what it is told, which helps us satisfy our craving for cognitive closure (i.e. a need to find a simple answer to a complex question).

Covid-19 didn’t help: The more uncertain the times, the more desperate we are for a sense of order, with moments of historical upheaval or social change leaving people particularly susceptible to the effects of conspiracy. The World Health Organization has said we are currently living through what it calls an “infodemic,” a deluge of information, some of it false or misleading, that impedes people’s sound decision-making.

Our egos are out of control: When we feel that we have lost we tend to find a common enemy on whom we can blame our failure, as a way to protect our egos. In other words, we’re willing to believe lies instead of admitting defeat. It’s part of our need for self-preservation and self-esteem; we try to inflate our egos while avoiding loss at all costs. This was especially apparent when Donald Trump lost the US elections last year, resulting in some republicans storming the Capitol building and blaming the democrats for having rigged the election. An investigation by the federal authorities however found no evidence of voter fraud.

Sheep in a herd: When we’re lost, we just do what others are doing even if we think it’s wrong. After all, humans are social creatures: we always want to be part of something bigger. People’s existential motives, the need to feel safe in the world they live in, as well as their social motives — the need to be a part of a group — can motivate a herd mentality when it comes to conspiracy theories.

Stubbornness: When we believe something is true, it’s practically impossible to get us to change our minds. Emily Thorson, professor at Syracuse University, calls this phenomenon: “belief echos.” So misinformation must be prevented, not treated; meaning that stopping lies at their source is a lot more effective than trying to reason with people who are already convinced. The science backs it up: a study found that warning people about the techniques that might be used to spread falsehoods enabled participants to better identify them.

Kicking these cognitive habits may be harder than we expect: Even when presented with hard evidence, people tend to hold onto their original proposition, because nobody likes to be wrong. Promoting the idea that it is good, rational, and natural to change your ideas once presented with new information could help wean some conspiracy theorists off of their misbeliefs.

Which conspiracy theory you buy into depends on where your interests lie: According to a 2021 YouGov survey of 22k people in 21 countries, one in five Americans believes 9/11 to have been an inside job, while 57% of South Africans believe vaccines have secret negative side effects, and 78% of Nigerians believe the world is being run behind the scenes by a secret cabal of powerful rulers.

What do Egyptians think? In Egypt, we scored high on conspiracy theory uptake in multiple categories: 42% of Egyptians think the US government was involved in 9/11, 43% think Trump worked with the Russian government during the 2016 election, 45% believe vaccines have harmful hidden side effects, and 55% believe that the world is run by secret powerful elites. The good news: We seem to believe in climate change, with only 23% of Egyptians surveyed saying they believed climate change was a hoax. We also don’t seem to be interested in extraterrestrial life, with only 25% of those surveyed saying they believed humanity had made secret contact with aliens.

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