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Thursday, 8 July 2021

US yields at 4-month low after Fed meeting minutes show policymakers less hawkish than previously thought

Here’s what investors wanted to hear: Officials at the Federal Reserve apparently weren’t in a hurry to start tapering stimulus at the most recent meeting in June, with most preferring to leave the liquidity taps on until they see “substantial further progress” in the economy, according to meeting minutes released yesterday. The document reveals that the central bank isn’t quite as hawkish as the markets thought: While some members voiced concerns about rising inflation and an overheating economy, the majority want to tread carefully and make sure the market is prepared for when policy is tightened.

The market reacts: US treasuries fell to a four-month low and the USD strengthened yesterday as investors priced a lower risk of an earlier-than-expected rate-hike, the Financial Times reports. After surging to almost 1.8% in March in response to inflationary fears, yields are now down to 1.32%, falling another 0.07 percentage points yesterday.

And investors now see the economy slowing? “Bond markets are expressing a view that we are approaching the slowdown phase of the economic cycle,” said one fund manager.

Up

EGX30

10,277

+1.2% (YTD: -5.2%)

None

USD (CBE)

Buy 15.64

Sell 15.74

None

USD at CIB

Buy 15.64

Sell 15.74

None

Interest rates CBE

8.25% deposit

9.25% lending

Down

Tadawul

10,958

-0.1% (YTD: +26.1%)

Down

ADX

6,969

-0.2% (YTD: +38.1%)

None

DFM

2,782

-% (YTD: +11.6%)

Up

S&P 500

4,358

+0.3% (YTD: +16.0%)

Up

FTSE 100

7,151

+0.7% (YTD: +10.7%)

Down

Brent crude

USD 73.39

-1.5%

Down

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.60

-1.1%

Up

Gold

USD 1,802.10

+0.4%

Up

BTC

USD 34,239

+1.6% (as of midnight)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The EGX30 rose 1.2% at yesterday’s close on turnover of EGP 1.06 bn (14% below the 90-day average). Local investors were net sellers. The index is down 5.2% YTD.

In the green: CIB (+2.5%), TMG Holding (+2.2%), and CI Capital (+2.2%).

In the red: Fawry (-1.5%), Orascom Development Egypt (-0.9%) and Sodic (-0.2%).

Asian markets are in the green in early trading this morning. Futures suggest that US shares will fall in early trading while exchanges in Europe will open in the green.

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