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Monday, 8 March 2021

What the markets are doing on 8 March 2021

We’re not on HSBC’s list of emerging markets most vulnerable to a possible Taper Tantrum 2.0. Brazil, Indonesia, Mexico and South Africa are the most exposed emerging economies to rising bond yields in the US, according to bond strategists at HSBC, the Economist reports. All of these countries have a history of running current account deficits while South Africa and Brazil’s large debt piles leave them vulnerable to rising rates. And it isn’t just countries which have borrowed extensively in foreign currencies that are exposed: Foreign investors hold almost half of Mexico’s local-currency debt, making it heavily exposed to outflows of hot money.

Want to read more about Taper Tantrum 2.0? Look no further than our explainer in EnterprisePM.

Spiking oil prices have put the balance sheets of Gulf oil exporters in the clear: Last week’s decision by OPEC+ to maintain production curbs could work wonders for public finances in the Gulf. Brent prices surged to USD 71.14 per barrel after the meeting — a level which analysts say would allow Gulf oil exporters to balance their budgets. “We would see fiscal surpluses for the larger GCC economies,” Monica Malik, chief economist at Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, tells Bloomberg. “This provides more fiscal space to support economic activity and recovery.”




+2.0% (YTD: +6.6%)



Buy 15.65

Sell 15.75



Buy 15.65

Sell 15.75


Interest rates CBE

8.25% deposit

9.25% lending




+1.2% (YTD: +7.6%)




– (YTD: +12.8%)




-0.9% (YTD: +2.2%)


S&P 500


+2.0% (YTD: +2.3%)


FTSE 100


-0.5% (YTD: +2.6%)


Brent crude

USD 71.14



Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.71




USD 1,708.90




USD 51,285.60


The EGX30 rose 2.0% yesterday on turnover of EGP 954 mn (35.3% below the 90-day average), pulled upward by index heavyweight CIB, which rose 2.7% yesterday at the closing bell. Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 6.6% YTD

In the green: AMOC (+7.9%), Sidi Kerir (+6.5%) and Orascom Investment (+6.4%).

In the red: Edita (-1.2%), Eastern Co. (-0.2%) and EFG-Hermes (-0.1%).

It’s a mixed morning for global markets: Japan’s Nikkei is the only major Asian market in the green this morning, with shares in Shanghai, Honk Kong and Korea all starting the trading week in the red. Futures suggest the Dow will open in the green, while Nasdaq and the S&P will both start the week in the red. The picture is similarly mixed across Europe.

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