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Wednesday, 3 March 2021

What the markets are doing on 3 March 2021

EM bonds are likely to continue to oscillate between rallies and sell-offs for the coming months, BlackRock’s Head of Emerging Market Debt Sergio Trigo Paz tells Bloomberg, as investors respond to an increase in US treasury yields and stimulus programs in emerging markets taper out.

2021 isn’t 2013, he says: Despite seeing their most significant losses since September last week, Trigo Paz is confident EM equities won’t suffer the same fate as in 2013’s “taper tantrum,” when an announcement by the Federal Reserve that it would begin phasing out its crisis-era bond-buying program prompted panic selling and a rise in US treasury yields. This time around though EM equities are likely to avoid a crash, thanks to improving economic fundamentals, fiscal stimulus driving up the prices of commodities, and the possibility of a weaker USD, he says.

OPEC oil production fell to an eight-month low last month as Saudi Arabia made good on its pledge to cut supply in an effort to counteract weak energy demand during the pandemic, Bloomberg reports. OPEC oil output fell by some 920k barrels a day last month, reaching 24.87 mn barrels per day, after Saudi Arabia reduced its daily production by 11%. The pledged cuts came amid efforts to revive collapsed oil prices that had suffered from a global supply glut last year. Prices have now recovered to more than USD 60 a barrel, and the cartel is expected to begin unwinding some of production cuts when it meets later this week, possibly bringing 500k barrels back online.

Down

EGX30

11,471

-0.4% (YTD: +6.9%)

Down

USD (CBE)

Buy 15.64

Sell 15.74

Down

USD at CIB

Buy 15.63

Sell 15.73

None

Interest rates CBE

8.25% deposit

9.25% lending

Up

Tadawul

9,248

+1.2% (YTD: +6.4%)

Up

ADX

5,711

+0.8% (YTD: +13.2%)

Up

DFM

2,569

+0.7% (YTD: +3.1%)

Down

S&P 500

3,879

-0.8% (YTD: +3.0%)

Up

FTSE 100

6,614

+0.4% (YTD: +2.4%)

Up

Brent crude

USD 62.99

+0.5%

Up

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.84

+0.2%

None

Gold

USD 1,733

Down

BTC

USD 48,594.85

-0.6%

The EGX30 fell 0.4% yesterday on turnover of EGP 1.67 bn (12.8% above the 90-day average). Foreign investors were net sellers. The index is up 5.77% YTD.

In the green: Sidi Kerir (+5.0%), Orascom Development Egypt (+4.7%) and Sodic (+3.8%).

In the red: Ibn Sina Pharma (-3.5%), Emaar (-2.8%) and Heliopolis Housing (-2.6%).

Asian markets are mixed in early trading this morning and futures suggest US markets will open solidly in the green.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

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