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Tuesday, 22 December 2020

What the markets are doing on 22 December 2020

After months of stalled progress, US congressional leaders finally agreed on a new USD 900 bn stimulus bill — which will be the second-largest aid package in US history, following the USD 2.3 tn stimulus bill passed in March, Reuters reports. The package includes doling out a round of USD 600 checks, as well as adding USD 300 to weekly unemployment payments. Non-covid measures also include protection from surprise medical bills, among other things, the Wall Street Journal reports. The stimulus package is part of a USD 1.4 tn spending bill to finance government programs until next September.

But some say the stimulus is a day late and (several) USD short, with unemployment on the rise and the US economy USD 1 tn smaller than it would have been without covid-19, Reuters reports. Economists agree that unemployment payouts are an effective way to kickstart the economy, they are less enthusiastic about the program’s aid to small businesses, which proved inefficient as relief under the first stimulus program in March.

Citigroup and Morgan Stanley overtook JPMorgan as the Middle East’s top dealmakers, Bloomberg reports. Buoyed by its entry into Saudi Arabia, as well as its work on placements for Egypt’s Hikma Pharma and the UAE’s Network International Holdings, Citigroup is ending the year as the top dealmaker for IPOs. Morgan Stanley leads in takeovers, having advised on the USD 18 bn merger of Saudi Arabia’s National Commercial Bank and Samba Financial Group gave it an edge. Transaction activity in the Middle East has slowed since last year, which saw the USD 30 bn IPO of Saudi’s Aramco, as well as the company’s USD 70 bn acquisition of a stake in Saudi Basic Industries.

Next year could be another challenging one for Dubai’s real estate market, property developer Damac Chairman Hussain Sajwani tells Bloomberg. The main risk is if developers start “dumping,” or flooding a market already in excess supply with new properties in hope of selling “another few hundred villas or apartments,” Sajwani said.

Some of the UK’s green investment funds aren’t quite so green: A third of UK climate funds have investments in oil and gas companies, putting pressure on regulators to tackle so-called “greenwashing,” where fund managers over-egg their green credentials to tap into the increasingly lucrative ESG market, the Financial Times reports, citing research by the CommonWealth think tank.

The world’s largest sovereign wealth fund has entered the age-old active vs passive debate: The new head of Norway’s SWF is pushing to actively manage the fund’s portfolio, an unorthodox position in an industry that has historically opted for passive investing, the Wall Street Journal reports. Newly-appointed manager Nicolai Tangen says he believes active management would boost returns and open the door to involvement with companies, while his critics — bemused by some of the arrangements agreed by the central bank and the hedge fund manager — are pushing back on the idea, arguing that returns offered by active investment don’t justify the extra costs.

Down EGX30 10,582 -2.8% (YTD: -24.2%)
Down USD (CBE) Buy 15.61 Sell 15.71
None USD at CIB Buy 15.62 Sell 15.72
None Interest rates CBE 8.25% deposit 9.25% lending
Down Tadawul 8,539 -1.7% (YTD: +1.8%)
Down ADX 5,073 -0.8% (YTD: -0.1%)
Down DFM 2,461 -3.9% (YTD: -11.0%)
Down S&P 500 3,695 -0.4% (YTD: +14.4%)
Down FTSE 100 6,416 -1.7% (YTD: -14.9%)
Down Brent crude USD 47.74 -2.8%
Down Natural gas (Nymex) USD 2.70 -0.1%
Up Gold USD 1,884.20 +0.1%
Down BTC USD 22,884.80 -2.7%

The EGX30 fell 2.8% yesterday on turnover of EGP 1.6 bn (15% above the 90-day average). Domestic investors were net sellers. The index is down 24.2% YTD.

In the green: CIRA (+0.14%).

In the red: Export Development Bank (-9.8%), Beltone Financial (-9.1%) and Egyptian Iron & Steel (-9.0%).

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