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Monday, 7 September 2020

Inflation to rise to 6.2% in 4Q- Amer

Amer sees slight uptick in inflation in the final quarter of the year: Egypt’s annual inflation rate is expected to average around 6.2% during the fourth quarter of 2020, CBE Governor Tarek Amer said at a cabinet meeting, according to a statement. Amer noted that inflation has held steady within the single-digit range since June 2019 and has remained below 6% since February, well within the bank’s target range of 9% (+/- 3%). Annual inflation decelerated to a seven-month low of 4.2% in July from 5.6% in June.

T-bill yields rose by 64 bps during the three weeks following the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in June, Amer said. They witnessed a brief decline from 14-21 July, before rising again to “fair levels” as a result of the committee’s policy measures, Amer added. The central bank has left interest rates on hold since its record 300 bps rate cut in March, in part to support bond yields and stimulate foreign inflows into Egyptian securities. Foreign holdings of Egyptian t-bills rebounded in June following four straight months of declines, rising slightly to USD 7.71 bn during the month from USD 7 bn in May. Egypt, like other emerging markets, witnessed sharp capital outflows at the height of the covid-induced global financial panic, which saw t-bill holdings plummet 64% from a peak of USD 19.5 bn in February.

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