Emerging markets are about to be hit by a crisis of epic proportions
Emerging markets are about to be hit by a crisis of epic proportions, with a public health emergency coming as investors retreat and foreign exchange reserves shrink. In this Bloomberg podcast (listen, runtime: 50:50), senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations Brad Setser discusses some of the key measures he uses to track the severity of the situation, as well as potential avenues for damage control.
What is to be done? Setser looks at which countries are particularly vulnerable — think those with oil dependent economies, low foreign exchange reserves or those at risk of debt default prior to the virus — and addresses which tools the IMF has in its arsenal, why its reserve asset (the Special Drawing Right) wasn’t deployed more quickly, and whether some form of health-related conditionality may be attached to loans. The cast also examines the medium- and long-term impacts of reduced tourism and more localized supply chains as economies the world over try to find new ways of balancing resilience with efficiency.