Back to the complete issue
Tuesday, 14 January 2020

Debt servicing seen as significant headwind for Egypt’s recovery -Moody’s

Egypt’s debt service burden could be a significant headwind to our economic growth -Moody’s: The country’s economic growth agenda could be threatened by the government’s interest bill — estimated at 9% of GDP in FY2019-2020 — “which adds rigidity to the budget,” Moody’s said in its North Africa 2020 outlook report (paywall) last week. The ratings agency expects the debt servicing burden to soften in 2020, but sees debt affordability continuing to be exposed to “idiosyncratic shocks,” and the EGP’s continued appreciation as an obstacle to competitiveness. Bonds & Loans also has the story.

The ratings agency expects Egypt’s ratio of debt-to-GDP to fall to 82.3% this fiscal year, down from a peak of more than 103% in FY2016-2017, and continue to dip further to 76% in FY2021-2022. This is close to expectations announced by the Finance Ministry late last year, which sees Egypt’s public debt levels dropping to 80% of GDP by the end of June 2021. You can get a refresher on the government’s debt targets here.

BUDGET WATCH- Egypt recorded a primary surplus of 0.5% of GDP in 1H FY2019-2020, according to preliminary figures revealed by Finance Minister Mohamed Maait yesterday. The number represents a slight improvement from the previous fiscal year when the government generated a 0.4% surplus in the first six months. The state budget targets a primary surplus of 2% of GDP over the full year. Maait made no mention of the government’s overall fiscal performance (including interest payments) over the first six months of the fiscal year, but revealed that government spending increases had significantly outpaced revenue growth, with expenditure rising 8.2% y-o-y and revenues growing 0.5% y-o-y.

Enterprise is a daily publication of Enterprise Ventures LLC, an Egyptian limited liability company (commercial register 83594), and a subsidiary of Inktank Communications. Summaries are intended for guidance only and are provided on an as-is basis; kindly refer to the source article in its original language prior to undertaking any action. Neither Enterprise Ventures nor its staff assume any responsibility or liability for the accuracy of the information contained in this publication, whether in the form of summaries or analysis. © 2022 Enterprise Ventures LLC.

Enterprise is available without charge thanks to the generous support of HSBC Egypt (tax ID: 204-901-715), the leading corporate and retail lender in Egypt; EFG Hermes (tax ID: 200-178-385), the leading financial services corporation in frontier emerging markets; SODIC (tax ID: 212-168-002), a leading Egyptian real estate developer; SomaBay (tax ID: 204-903-300), our Red Sea holiday partner; Infinity (tax ID: 474-939-359), the ultimate way to power cities, industries, and homes directly from nature right here in Egypt; CIRA (tax ID: 200-069-608), the leading providers of K-12 and higher level education in Egypt; Orascom Construction (tax ID: 229-988-806), the leading construction and engineering company building infrastructure in Egypt and abroad; Moharram & Partners (tax ID: 616-112-459), the leading public policy and government affairs partner; Palm Hills Developments (tax ID: 432-737-014), a leading developer of commercial and residential properties; Mashreq (tax ID: 204-898-862), the MENA region’s leading homegrown personal and digital bank; Industrial Development Group (IDG) (tax ID:266-965-253), the leading builder of industrial parks in Egypt; Hassan Allam Properties (tax ID:  553-096-567), one of Egypt’s most prominent and leading builders; and Saleh, Barsoum & Abdel Aziz (tax ID: 220-002-827), the leading audit, tax and accounting firm in Egypt.