Standard Chartered gives thumbs up to Egypt’s economic reform program: Egypt will be the only oil-importing Middle East, North Africa, and Pakistan (MENAP) economy to see accelerating economic growth in the coming years, Standard Chartered has said in a report. The British bank predicts anaemic growth in other MENAP oil-importers, despite low crude prices. But it’s not just oil-dependent states suffering in the current environment: global headwinds will drive down the region’s average growth rate to 2.5% in 2019 from 3.6% last year, the report says.

What are we getting right? Growth is expected to speed up on the back of the “improved external position and [renewed] investor confidence as the country prepares for the conclusion of its IMF programme by the end of 2019,” Standard Chartered says. The reports expects the economy to grow at a 5.8% clip in FY2019-2020 and a 6% clip in FY2020-2021, up from 5.5% during the current fiscal year. This will be further supported by rising natural gas output and the resumption of exports. Other key forecasts made in the report include:

• Inflation will cool down to 11.1% by the end of FY2019-2020 after hovering at an average of 14.8% during the current fiscal year;
• The budget deficit will narrow to 9.2% of GDP by the end of the ongoing fiscal year, quite a way short of the government’s 8.4% target. Energy subsidy cuts remain key to achieving fiscal targets.
• The IMF will likely remain engaged with Egypt via “post-program monitoring.”