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Tuesday, 21 May 2019

What we’re tracking on 21 May 2019

A class act: Tourism Minister Rania Al Mashat visited in hospital yesterday a number of tourists injured in the roadside bombing earlier this week — then took other members of the same group on a personal tour of the Giza Pyramids. At least 14 tourists were injured in the attack, which took place near the Pyramids.


We are just about at the half-way mark in Ramadan, with 14 days left until Eid El Fitr, depending on the movement of the lunar calendar.

And we have just two days left until interest rate day. The central bank’s monetary policy committee meets on Thursday to review key interest rates; all 12 economists we polled expect the CBE to leave rates on hold.

Checking in on the EGP… Banks are buying greenbacks at about 16.97 and selling them for 17.07. The EGP is up about 90 piasters (or 5%) against the USD since the beginning of the year and approached the psychologically important EGP 17 barrier last week.

[Correction: The email edition incorrectly noted that the EGP is “down” about 90 pt — the entire point is that the pound has strengthened against the USD and is accordingly up about 90 piasters (or 5%).  Too little sleep, too little coffee. We apologize.]

…and on the market: The EGX30 closed down 1.1% yesterday on an anemic 415 mn in turnover, paring the index’s total gains for 2019 to 2.6%.


Good news for Egyptian cotton — from a US court. A US district judge has ruled that top US retailers including Walmart and Bed Bath & Beyond “must face a lawsuit claiming they sold linens that were falsely labeled ‘100% Egyptian Cotton’ or ‘100% Long-Staple Egyptian cotton’ despite being suspicious of their origin.” Sounds like an opportune moment to pour some resources into the Cotton Egypt Association’s Egyptian cotton branding campaign

A week before Saudi stocks join the MSCI EM index, foreign investors aren’t buying: Saudi equities currently make up just 0.09% of the average emerging market fund portfolio, with 90% of funds not holding any at all, according to a Copley Fund Research analysis of 189 funds, the FT writes. The article notes that the low weighting is “highly unusual” given investors tend to buy prior to index inclusion. Saudi equities have also been in the FTSE Russell and S&P Dow Jones EM indices for two months, making the lack of buying activity even more surprising.

Why the snub? Fund managers interviewed by the salmon-colored paper cite the country’s oil dependency, concerns about corporate governance and uncertainty about valuations: Saudi shares are trading at a historic price-to-earnings ratio that is 3x that of Turkey and Russia, 2x the UAE and 1.7x the MSCI EM index.

Meanwhile, smart policy in KSA: “Saudi Arabia will expand an excise tax charged on tobacco and soda to include electronic cigarettes and all drinks with added sugar,” Bloomberg reports.


SIGN OF THE TIMES #1: Credit quality is declining at big banks loaning to US businesses, with non-performing loans on a sudden upswingdespite low interest rates and strong growth. “Non-performing loans at the 10 largest commercial lenders rose 20 per cent, or US 1.6 bn, in the first quarter,” according to an analysis by the Financial Times.

SIGN OF THE TIMES #2: A Democratic presidential hopeful wants to punish companies that fail to close the gender pay gap, suggesting large companies should have to pay a fine equal to 1% of their profits for every 1% wage gap they allow. We’re generally not advocates of anything that sees government fining business, but this just makes sense.

Also worth knowing about this morning:

  • Deutsche Bank shares hit an all-time low and there are now suggestions that Goldman Sachs should buy the struggling German lender, which will hold its annual meeting of shareholders on Thursday. (Note it is “should” not “could” or “is.”)
  • Workplace messaging app Slack expects to raise about USD 197 mn in a direct listing on the New York Stock Exchange. It will trade under the ticker WORK. You can visit Slack’s IR page here or head straight to the SEC to read its prospectus.
  • US auto maker Ford is cutting 10% of its global white-collar workforce, joining GM, Volkswagen and Jaguar Land Rover “as global carmakers hunker down to deal with falling sales.” (FT | Reuters)
  • Amazon will now delivering to your car: Amazon Prime members are now able to get orders delivered straight to their cars using the online retailer’s Key app. The catch: you must live in one of 50 US cities and own a Ford.

What We’re Tracking Today, the Ramadan edition:

A pre-iftar reading list to kill time between your post-workout shower and the breaking of the fast:

  • The curse of genius. “We see exceptional intelligence as a blessing. So why are so many brilliant children miserable misfits?” asks the Economist’s 1843 in a long read well worth your time.
  • ‘Playing catch-up in the game of life’: Millennials approach middle age in crisis, writes the Wall Street Journal, suggesting that “new data show they’re in worse financial shape than every preceding living generation and may never recover.” It’s a very US-centric take, but many of the themes are cross-border in developed economies.
  • You want your kid / younger sibling to become a data scientist — it’s the highest-paying job for fresh grads in the US, according to Bloomberg. But watch out before you steer them toward investment banking (the fourth-highest paying job). As Bloomberg’s Matt Levine regularly points out: If you’re under the age of 28 and working in investment banking, a robot can already do your job.

Stranger Things fans can take a moment this morning to check out the latest art from the show’s Twitter account, teasing that “our boys can change everything” and that “one friendship can change everything.”

Reviews are mixed on the final episode of Game of Thrones, which capped an eight-season run on Sunday / Monday (depending on your time zone). Critics were generally kind to the series finale, which we enjoyed much more than some of the more vocal fans on the lunatic fringe (or “internet,” as you prefer). The Financial Times called the series ending “both brilliant and maddening,” Rolling Stone found it “bittersweet” and the New York Times suggested it was a “mishmash of poignant moments and puzzling turns.” Either way: The final episode was HBO’s most-watched ever, the Wall Street Journal and Reuters report: About 19.3 mn people in the US tuned in.

Looking for something to watch with GoT now over? OSN’s Wavo app is trying to convince you not to cancel your subscription, offering up West World, True Detectives, Lost, The Sopranos and Veep as bingeworthy material. Business Insider, meanwhile, has a list of seven shows it thinks are worth your time, crowned by Lucifer on Netflix: “Bored with being the Lord of Hell, the devil relocates to Los Angeles, where he opens a nightclub and forms a connection with a homicide detective.” The paper-thin plots are (so far) made tolerable by the one-liners written for the Lucifer character. We already knew about Lucifer thanks to our friend Haitham A.

RAMADAN PSA- Bank hours are at 9am-2pm for employees; doors are open from 9:30am until 1:30pm for customers. The trading day at the EGX runs 10:00am until 1:30pm.

So, when do we eat? Maghrib is at 6:45 pm CLT today in Cairo. You’ll have until 3:17am tomorrow morning to caffeinate / finish your sohour.

WEATHER- Brace yourselves for a heat wave. Look for a daytime high of 40°C today rising steadily to 45°C by Thursday and settling in at 44°C on Friday. The mercury will be locked in the 38-42°C band straight through until Eid El Fitr, our favorite weather app suggests. It’s summer, folks.

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