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Monday, 6 May 2019

Emerging economies face uncertainty as we enter the age of automation

Robots and AI will eat jobs in emerging markets: Emerging countries are the most vulnerable to job losses caused by the increasing role of automation, artificial intelligence, and robots in the economy, OECD research has found. All 11 emerging markets included in the OECD’s analysis are among the 17 countries which will be most affected by technology-induced job obsolescence. Slovakia is most vulnerable to automation, with almost 65% of jobs seen as being at risk of significant change. More than 60% of Lithuanian jobs are under threat of significant change, while just under 60% of jobs in Turkey and Greece face a similar future.

The threat of reshoring is real: The growth of automation will make it more cost-effective for multinationals to relocate production in the developed world, removing incentives to invest and create jobs in emerging economies. “Technological progress, once a facilitator of globalized supply chains, now challenges emerging market manufacturers’ climb up the value-added ladder and productivity growth,” Marvin Barth, head of FX and EM macro strategy at Barclays Investment Bank, told the FT. “It is apparent in the data for investment, foreign direct investment and relative developed market expenditure on manufactured goods already,” he added.

A ray of light: Automation will not necessarily become an attractive investment for EM businesses any time soon, the OECD says. The high cost of automotive equipment is beyond the reach of many EM entrepreneurs, while the prevalence of cheap, unskilled labor in many developing economies removes incentives for domestic companies to invest in the technology.

The OECD’s message to countries like Egypt: Start preparing immediately to mitigate the negative economic and social effects of automation.

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